Seattle Seahawks Preview

Edition #296

Good morning! ☀️

We’re just over 48 hours away from the most important late-season game in 7 years. Whether you think the Jets are going to make it or not, the fact we have a chance to play a game with playoff football in January is a vast improvement. It’s easy to lose sight of that because of the recent form and the controversy around the QB position.

That’s not to say that missing out on the playoffs wouldn’t be disappointing, when you’re 5-2 and you miss out, it’s very deflating. But while there is a chance, I’ll be talking as if we’re going all the way.

🎟️ The Jets announced that they had signed WR Malik Taylor to the practice squad, releasing LB/S Kai Nacua to make room. From the Jets release: Taylor (6-1, 220) has played in 25 games for the Packers from 2020-2021 and has 7 receptions, 80 yards, and 1 touchdown. He originally signed with the Buccaneers as an undrafted free agent out of Ferris State but spent five days in Tampa Bay before joining Green Bay.

🚨 ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler had an interesting report from an NFL executive who said: "I think they do everything possible to trade him — but I think they wait until maybe even the preseason or into the regular season to get his value up," an NFC executive said. "There's nothing right now that says a team wants the Zach Wilson experiment and will trade a draft pick for him. But it could be a Baker Mayfield-type situation [with the Rams], where a team has injuries at the position and needs a spot starter."

📢 Geno Smith was asked if there was any extra motivation playing the Jets this weekend and while he said the focus was about winning, he also said “I got a lot of love for the Jets, the organization, and a lot of people that are still there that were there when I got drafted”.

Injury report is as follows:

Like the Jets, the Seahawks are coming into this game with a lot of questions about their playoff credentials. A 7-8 team who are on a 3-game losing streak, the Seahawks will be hoping to use home-field advantage to advance their cause.

Unfortunately for the Seahawks, Lumen Field has been anything but a fortress this year with Seattle holding a losing record at home (3-4).

Historically, Seattle has been one of the more intimidating stadiums to play in, but San Francisco, Carolina, Las Vegas, and Atlanta have all walked out with victories in 2022.

As we so often do, let’s start the preview by taking a look at the DVOA¹ rankings for each team:

Total DVOA: Jets (13th), Seahawks (10th)
Offensive DVOA: Jets (21st), Seahawks (12th)
Defensive DVOA: Jets (6th), Seahawks (26th)
Special Teams DVOA: Jets (24th), Seahawks (1st)
Estimated Wins: Jets 7.2, Seahawks 7.9

Overall the two teams are very close, which makes sense considering they both hold 7-8 records, but as we’ve seen over the past two weeks, the teams are built differently. The Jets are finding their success through a top-10 defense, whereas the Seahawks are finding theirs through a top-10 offense. That hasn’t worked out overly well for the Jets against the Lions and Jaguars, but hopefully, this week is different.

Offense

Few teams operate out of 13 personnel as much as the Seahawks, with Seattle using Dissly, Noah Fant, and Colby Parkinson to make their offense hum. All three of the tight ends are in the top 7 among Seahawk receivers in terms of targets, and all three play a big part in the blocking game.

Seattle was dealt a blow this week with the news that their most well-rounded tight end Will Dissly was set to miss the rest of the season through a knee injury. This means we’ll likely see the Seahawks move to more 12 personnel, they’re also losing a player who has 34 receptions for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns this year.

The Seahawks have scored just 23 points over the last two weeks and were just 2-14 on third down last week in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but many expect Tyler Lockett to make his return on Sunday, and whenever you get a guy back who’s caught 78 passes for 964 yards and 8 touchdowns, it’s going to give your offense a boost. Here’s what Pete Carroll had to say about it:

"If you had watched the walk-through, you wouldn't even know that anything was going on," Carroll said. "He just went through it and did everything in a walk-through. We'll be careful with him in practice and make sure that we find out what his limits are, but he looked great throwing and catching and all that stuff, so we'll see. We're going to go one day at a time and we're not going to let him work hard today at practice. ... We don't need to. But the walk-through was excellent, so a really good first sign."

If Lockett returns then the Jets will have their hands full with him and D.K Metcalf on the outside and former Bills/Bears and 49ers receiver Marquise Goodwin on the inside, although both Metcalf and Lockett have seen time in the slot this year and the Seahawks may elect to move them there more on Sunday to get them away from Sauce Gardner and former Seahawk D.J Reed.

As good as Michael Carter II has been, if I were an offensive coordinator I’d be targeting him more than the outside corners in the passing game. The Seahawks average 238.7 yards passing per game, although that’s dropped to 216 yards over the last three games and they average fewer passing yards at home than they do on the road (227 v 248). This will be a huge test for our old friend Geno Smith.

Geno is enjoying a career year having received an opportunity to start for much of the season for the first time since 2014. I’m not sure what Seattle are doing but they’ve managed to find success with #7 where the Jets, Giants, and Chargers failed. Geno has been with Seattle since 2020, and the trade of Russell Wilson opened the door for him to start and boy has he taken advantage of it.

Geno has completed 70.7% of his passes for 3,886 yards with 27 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and over his last 6 games, he has 12 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. He’s also completing over 58% of his passes when pressured and his 13 touchdowns of 20+ yards rank #1 in the league. So if you think Geno is dinking and dunking his way to that 70.9% completion, think again.

I’ve watched through a few Seattle games and it’s hard to not be impressed with Geno. He’s throwing with anticipation and confidence and his mobility within the pocket is extremely impressive. He moves, slides, and climbs as well as any QB in the league and he does a great job keeping his eyes downfield and finding a target.

Rookie Kenneth Walker III is having an impressive season rushing the ball, averaging 4.6 yards per carry en route to 803 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 0 fumbles. His 41 missed tackles forced put him 12/80 running backs with at least 25 rushing attempts, missed tackles have been an issue for the Jets all season and that could be one of the biggest obstacles to winning this game.

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Defense

As good as the offense has been, the Seahawks have struggled on the defensive side of the ball, which seems a strange thing to say about a team who have historically been dominant.

Here are some stats to put the defensive struggles into context:

Opponent points per game: 25.3 (29th)
Opponent yards per game: 373.4 (29th)
Opponent 3rd down completion: 44.0% (28th)
Opponent Rushing yards per game: 155.5 (31st)
Opponent passing yards per game: 217.9 (17th)

While researching this piece, one thing I noticed was that a lot of the statistics for Seattle are worse at home than on the road, including the 3rd down completion rate and the opponent's rushing yards per game, although the passing yards are slightly lower at home.

Although they held up relatively well against Patrick Mahomes and the Chief’s offense last week but they’ve often been described as the ‘Legion of Doom’ a play on the Seahawk’s dominant secondary of yesteryear titled the ‘Legion of Boom’, despite having both CB Tariq Woolen and S Quandre Diggs named to the Pro Bowl.

For all the talent they have in the secondary, there are two huge weaknesses in the defense. Overall they are a very poor run defense team, and they struggle with their second-level coverage. Consider that linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton have allowed 1070 yards and 8 touchdowns into their coverage. This plays into the hands of a QB like Mike White who has a good vision for those second-level opportunities, I’d expect the tight ends and running backs to have good games on Sunday.

The Jets will need to be wary of rookie Tariq Woolen who has picked off 6 passes this year and while I don’t want to get drawn into the Woolen v Sauce debate (spoiler, Sauce is the better corner), it’s hard to not be impressed with what Tariq is doing. I was lucky to get access to the Senior Bowl practice footage and Woolen was extremely impressive, and he was recorded at over 22mph making him the fastest player in attendance.

That speed shows up on tape, he can be beaten off the line but his speed enables him to make up the separation. It’s worth noting that to go with the 6 interceptions, Woolen has also allowed 5 touchdowns and 460 yards. Fellow rookie Coby Bryant who Sauce will know well from Cincinnati is allowing 72.6% of all passes into his coverage to be complete, so I’d be trying to get Garrett Wilson some one-on-one matchups with him as much as possible.

At points, the Seahawks have been able to stop the run, but it’s been wildly inconsistent. When it’s bad, it’s really bad. Seattle allowed 161 yards to Tampa Bay, 223 yards to the Panthers, and 283 yards to the Raiders. The Jets’ run game has been non-existent over the past few weeks, so both teams will be looking at Sunday’s game as an opportunity to right the ship.

I found this comment quite interesting from Seahawks coach and former Jets coach Pete Carroll:

“At this point, every team knows that that’s our weakness. So they’re going to stay committed to the run,” Seahawks middle linebacker Jordyn Brooks said Sunday. “These coaches, they watch film, they see that. ‘You know what? As long as we stay committed to it [the run], they’ll break.’ I’m talking about us. So they stay committed to it during the whole game. … They’re not throwing the ball a lot. They’re going to keep running the ball.” 

One of my main criticisms recently of Mike LaFleur has centered around how quickly he moves away from the run game. A couple of stuffed runs and we see pass after pass after pass. If we do that against Seattle, we’re likely going to lose the game. I want to see a steady dose of running plays, inside power plays and stretch plays. Then if we can get that going, with the linebackers the way they are we can hit some play-action passes.

Former Seattle QB and now NFL analyst Brock Huard thinks it’s a talent issue and it’s hard to disagree with that when you look at the depth chart.

“Watching an NFL team unable to stop the run is like watching an MLB team unable to hit. Effort is the immediate/easy answer to scream, but the reality is talent and skill are often what’s missing,” Huard tweeted. “Many of these Seahawk front seven defenders are fringe NFL players and that’s come to light.” 

There is no excuse for the Jet’s offensive line this week in terms of opening lanes for the running backs. The Seahawks have also only generated pressure on 19.7% of QB dropbacks which is 24th in the league, giving the Jets an opportunity to protect Mike White so he can get cooking.

One thing to watch is the penalties. Seattle has been called for 97 this season, which is tied for the 4th most in the league, but interestingly only 33 of those have come at home, meaning 64 have come on the road. Now I expect there to be a slight discrepancy, but it is nearly half which really sticks out to me, as you can see below.

In terms of what they get called for more than the league average, here are the top five:

1. False Starts

2. Defensive Offside

3. Offensive Pass Interference

4. Intentional Grounding

5. Unsportsmanlike Conduct

Conclusion

If the Jets can establish the run game, they’re going to be able to move the ball against this defense. Quick hitting passes over the middle to the tight ends are a way to attack this defense and if the Jets matchup well on the outside with Reed/Sauce against Lockert and Metcalf. This is going to be a very difficult game, but the Seahawks are on as big a slide as we are and the Jets will be rejuvenated with Mike White behind center.

1. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.