Why I wouldn't draft Tyler Linderbaum...
I bet that's a headline you never thought you'd see from me.
Good morning Jets fans. This week seems to be absolutely flying, it’ll be time to kick-off against the Saints in no time.
Today’s newsletter is a sad one to write. Anyone who follows me on Twitter will know I’ve been driving that Tyler Linderbaum bus for a while, fighting back against anyone who suggested it would be a wasted pick. But, last night I finally came to a conclusion that I’d been avoiding (perhaps on purpose) for a few weeks now, I don’t think the Jets should take Tyler Linderbaum.
Now, let me start this off by saying this has nothing to do with Tyler. I think he’s going to be a fine center in this league for the next decade, and his skillset perfectly translates to the pro-game, he’s going to make a team very happy, whoever decides to take him in the top 15, as that’s the pick that you’ll likely need to use to bag him.
No, this has everything to do with the Jets and nothing to do with Linderbaum himself. Stick with it.
Defense
The Jets have given up 4,762 yards this season, worst in the league.
The Jets have given up 367 points this season, worst in the league.
The Jets are 32nd in the league in terms of DVOA. 1
The Jets are a bottom-five unit in terms of yards after the catch allowed with 1709.
The Jets are last in the league in terms of interceptions generated.
The Jets are last in the league in terms of expected points contributed thanks to their passing defense, the -146.51 figure is over 15 points worse than any other team.
I could carry on and on with these stats. I could find 10-15 more statistics that show this is one of the worst defenses the Jets have ever fielder. It’s certainly the worst defense in the NFL in 2021. If you want to have a career day, you circle the Jets on the schedule. The rushing defense hasn’t been as bad as the passing defense, but it’s still one of the worst units in the league.
I tweeted this week that it’s hard to plan for the injuries the Jets have sustained, and I stand by that. Losing Carl Lawson, losing Vinny Curry, losing Marcus Maye, losing LaMarcus Joyner, losing Jamien Sherwood, all of these hurt the Jets in different ways. But even with all of those guys healthy, I look at this defense and maybe they’re league average, maybe.
Even with those guys available, I think we need an injection of talent on this defensive unit. Now consider that the main focus of that group Carl Lawson is coming off one of the more difficult injuries to recover from if you rely on your explosive ability. I’m not saying he won’t come back as good as before, but I’d want a contingency plan. I’d want a safety net.
This is where Linderbaum comes in. The Jets are set to have two top-15 selections in a draft where the defensive talent in the first round far outweighs the offensive talent in my opinion. So let’s say the Jets end with a #4 and a #12 draft pick. My first instinct there was to say, OK you take a Hutchinson there at #4, you take a Stingley if you like him, you take a Gardner or maybe even a linebacker like Dean, then you take Tyler at #12 if he’s there.
Then I paused for a minute and thought. Does a combination of Hutchinson & Dean or Stingley & Lloyd or Gardner & Dean make the Jets better in 2022 and beyond, or does one of those guys + Tyler make the Jets better in 2022 and beyond. And as much as I tried to convince myself that the latter was true, the logical side of my brain kept telling me that the first combinations always won out.
Surrounding Zach
The Jets never surrounded Sam Darnold with talent, how much that would have mattered is anyone’s guess but the principle is important, how can you expect a QB to develop if they’re not provided the tools to succeed.
The Jets did what they could to help Zach in year one, but as I said yesterday this rebuild project was never going to be completed in year one, and despite Joe Douglas having been here for a while now the project only really got started with the hiring of Saleh last year.
I’ve never been in favor of drafting a wide receiver high in the first round. My look at the All-Pro average draft position shows that you can find elite receiver talent in the middle rounds of the draft. Saying that it’s a lot harder to find that middle-round talent than it is to hit on a Ja'Marr Chase or a Justin Jefferson.
I’d still favor drafting defense with both first-round picks, but if the Jets wanted to give Zach a true WR1 alongside Elijah Moore who I believe to be a WR1 anyway, then I could get on board. After all, two wide receiver ones are better than one wide receiver one… or something like that.
Jameson Williams from Alabama is the flavor of the month at the moment and he’ll have a mouth-watering matchup against Sauce Garnder when the Tide face the Bearcats in the college football playoff semi-final.
There’s another reason why I’ve moved away from the Linderbaum train…
Connor McGovern
I can sense this is going to get me in some hot water with some fans, but yesterday I saw a tweet on my timeline around the fans perception of Connor being very different to the perception he has inside the franchise, which transported me back to a conversation I had with someone in the off-season who’s close to the organization and they practically said the same thing. Connor had a down year last year but that the organization believed he was perfectly suited to the system that Mike LaFleur wanted to implement.
That’s largely come to fruition.
PFF have McGovern rated as a top-10 center in the league this year and while I rarely if ever trust their grading when it comes to offensive lineman he’s largely passed the eye test this year, especially when you go back and look at the All-22 footage. While I don’t think McGovern is the best center you’re ever going to see in your life, he’s certainly not the biggest problem on this football team.
According to OTC2 McGovern’s cap hit next year is $10.3 million, if the Jets decided to move on from Connor, they could cut him and save $9 million with just $1.3 million set as dead money, the option is there for the Jets if that’s the route they want to take.
As it stands today that $10.3 million salary would be the 4th highest salary for the position in 2022, behind only Rodney Hudson in Arizona, Corey Linsley with the Chargers and Mitch Morse with the Bills. So he is getting paid to be an elite center in the league, and while he’s been better this year, I’d fall short of calling him an elite center.
So if the Jets do want to move on…
Free Agency
I’m going to keep this one short as if you want to bring in a top free-agent center you’re going to have to pay for one, and that means likely moving to the $12-$14 million per year mark. If the Jets were going to do that I believe they’d just stick with McGovern and either pay him the $10 million or try and renegotiate.
Saying that there are a couple of names that will probably interest fans. Tampa Bay Bucs center Ryan Jensen is set to hit free agency, he’s allowed 1 sack on over 500 pass-blocking snaps with Tom Brady behind him, a guy not known for his mobility, but I’d be shocked if Tampa let him go. Jason Kelce isn’t leaving Philadelphia, or if he is it’s to retirement.
Outside of those two there isn’t a great deal to get excited about. So we move onto…
The Draft
Now just because I’m hesitating on taking a center with a top 15 pick, doesn’t mean I wouldn’t entertain the idea of getting another center in the building.
Earlier this week I took a look at first-team all-pros dating back a decade and worked out the average draft position for a first-team all-pro center.
The average draft position came out at #85, so we’re looking around the 3rd round for a prospect at that position. Remember Creed Humphrey who is currently rated as the #1 center in football in 2021 was taken with pick #62.
So I went back and took a look at some notes I’d made on certain guys around the 2nd and 3rd round mark and I kept coming back around to three prospects that are high upside guys that wouldn’t cost a first or probably a 2nd round pick.
Jarrett Patterson of Notre Dame, John Michael Schmitz of Minnesota and a dark horse Alex Mollette of Marshall. In time I’m going to go into detail on all three in this newsletter but for now here are a few quick hits on them.
Jarrett Patterson
Little tall for the position at 6’5, allowed 0 sacks and just 9 pressures over 452 pass-blocking snaps in 2021. Strong anchor, doesn’t give much away inside and keeps the QB clean with space. Functional open field athleticism but needs to work on finding blocks at the next level.
John Michael Schmitz
My personal favourite of the group. Schmitz allowed 0 sacks and just 5 pressures over 308 pass blocking snaps. He plays with excellent pad level and at 320lbs he has a good quickness/power balance. I really like the look of Schmitz but need to watch more.
Alex Mollette
Here is my dark horse shot in the dark type prospect. He’s likely getting drafted in the 7th round if at all, but maybe one to stash and develop. He plays with a nastiness to him which I like and he’s quick off the snap. He can work in space too which is why I’m interested.
A few more names to watch out for are Boston College’s Alec Lindstrom and Ricky Stromberg from Arkansas and maybe even Dohnovan West from Arizona State who’s a guard/center combo.
Conclusion
I love Tyler Linderbaum, and I would love to have him on this team for the next 10 years. But looking at where the Jets are today and where they want to get to, spending a top 15 pick on a center likely isn’t going to shift the needle enough. Yes you can improve the defense through free agency and I fully expect the Jets to be aggressive, but injecting two top talents at their respective positions into this lineup will offer the greatest jump to the organization.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2021
https://overthecap.com/player/connor-mcgovern/4857/