Current estimates for the CAP in 2023 is North of 220 million. From a competitive standpoint the Jets are about fifteenth in CAP space, which means they are right in the middle of the pack. There are teams with serious CAP problems, but the Jets like everyone else will have to make decisions. Free Agency will be different, Jets can only afford a couple of second tier players at best in 2023. The Jets have seven draft picks, but will be drafting in the mid twenties, to fill holes. It will be different.
Carl Lawson and Corey Davis are obvious cuts, primarily because of the depth at their positions, but IMHO Davis is a good value at 11 million.
I sign Mike White, it will be a one year deal , quadrupling his salary to 10 million, and carrying Zach at 8 million, combined, you are still below the average QB starting salary. Moseley needs to restructure, but also in that restructuring needs to take a 5 million dollar hair cut.
The decisions on the Offensive line will be fascinating, Fant and Brown will be gone. Herbig bet on himself and won, should be in demand. McGovern is a very tough decision, the Jets need a Center. Joe Douglas will be challenged in 2023.
Related to the salary question is how we'll draft. What do you think is our priorities?
I think we need a Safety upgrade. Maybe 2.
We need to draft a LB. Quincy is much improved but especially with CJ aging and expensive, we'll need another
We've poured so much capital into OL, but it's still not enough. LG is set. AVT is our best and position flexible. CMG can return as the rock of the line. But the rest are questions.
Fant has a 5 game audition. Becton, Fant, Mitchell - who will step up? Can't rely on health, but can't have 8 figure swing tackles.
That's a good question and easy answer but I think we'll go best player available, that's JD's MO.
However in my opinion I see safety, tackle and linebacker as three key areas we need to address. Quincy and Kwon are free agents and CJ is about to enter the twilight years of his career, he's still got a few good ones in him but we need to start planning. We really haven't seen enough of Sherwood to understand if he is the longterm answer for that ILB spot going forward.
Free safety is a huge priority for me, I feel we're one safety away from having the most dominant secondary in football.
Fant will be gone IMO and there is a cloud hanging over Mitchell now as we don't know the reason for this non-football injury designation, that could be a healthy issue that we may need to consider in the draft, but again I don't really want to guess on that one.
Lawson is really good, and maybe still getting back to full strength from injury, but we're loaded at DE. He hasn't become the dominant edge rusher we imagined, but maybe he's still recovering from injury?
Do you think JJ replaces Lawson? If you draft a R1 DE, you need to play him when worthy.
They don't seem to want to keep JFM inside. I think JFM and JJ are our starting DE tandem for next year, with Huff on 3rd down pass rush situations
Corey Davis is a really good player,for all parts of the game. We're better with him on the field. Mims isn't at the same level, but there's only so many footballs to go around.
Without CD, Moore and GW become the lead duo, with Mims stepping up and maybe Berrios getting more role. It would certainly rely on Elijah to show the magic we saw in his rookie season, and Mims to break out.
You're absolutely right there. The Jets had over $53 million in dead cap in 2020 which showed how poorly previously GMs had managed the cap. In 2021 that number had decreased to $35.8 million which was still the 9th highest amount in the league, but in 2022 it plummeted to $11.5 million which was the 2nd lowest in the league and next year it'll be $2.8 million.
You again have shown how you keep your subscribers aware and alert to our team at levels of introspection that is stunning. I for one consider my subscription a phenomenal resource and thank you fervently!
Really appreciate that Philipp. In the off-season we'll get into more detail on the cap and contract structure, but just wanted to touch base with it on a top level to try and communicate that this off-season will likely look a lot different.
Thanks DWH. I rarely think about the cap and the financial side of football even though it is critically important. I also find it terribly confusing. You broke it down nicely and made it much clearer to me. I hope that Joe D is as solid in this area as he seems to be on the player personnel side. Love the team he has created. Now, to just keep it together! Happy holidays David.
Absolutely Maine, it's not always the most interesting thing to look at, but it's certainly very important. Looking at the longterm implications, Joe D has done a good job not pushing cap into future years as we can see from the 2024 and 2025 numbers, so he has that flexibility to do that with the guys he knows he wants to keep long term, thinking Quinnen Williams here and when we need to extend Sauce and Garrett and people like that.
Hey David -- I think this is spot on. I was doing similar math yesterday, and something that stuck out to me is: if you go to the overthecap page for contenders like Dallas, Eagles, Bills, they have contracts through 2028. The Jets only have deals through 2025, and as you mention hardly any of that cap is spent. The Jets are in a unique position where they need money to extend their own good, young core players, instead of taking gambles on free agents. This changes the math in a way that for Jets fans is unfamiliar (at least, that's what I tell myself to rationalize harsh realities like the dreadful Tomlinson contract).
I understand why you probably didn't want to open this can of worms, but working to retain players also always helps with the comp pick formula, which I believe JD hugely values.
Absolutely Will, that's a really good thought and I wrote something for Jets X-Factor back in June about something very similar https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/06/21/ny-jets-joe-douglas-financial-flexibility/ - Just looking at Joe's reluctance to push contacts down the line which adds flexibility to managing the cap when things get close. As you've pointed out, a lot of teams have guys signed through 2026-2027 etc and that's to spread out of the cost in terms of cap implications. Jets have yet to do that, but I think we'll see that change this year with Quinnen's contract extension.
What is very hard to fathom - the "baby" jets are at the cap or near it. How do the Bills, Chiefs, Bucs - do it with the most expensive QBs on the planet ? If they really are the youngest team in the NFL then someone (Douglas) did a terrible job managing the cap. There shouldnt even be a discussion on this at this part of the rebuild.
Current estimates for the CAP in 2023 is North of 220 million. From a competitive standpoint the Jets are about fifteenth in CAP space, which means they are right in the middle of the pack. There are teams with serious CAP problems, but the Jets like everyone else will have to make decisions. Free Agency will be different, Jets can only afford a couple of second tier players at best in 2023. The Jets have seven draft picks, but will be drafting in the mid twenties, to fill holes. It will be different.
Carl Lawson and Corey Davis are obvious cuts, primarily because of the depth at their positions, but IMHO Davis is a good value at 11 million.
I sign Mike White, it will be a one year deal , quadrupling his salary to 10 million, and carrying Zach at 8 million, combined, you are still below the average QB starting salary. Moseley needs to restructure, but also in that restructuring needs to take a 5 million dollar hair cut.
The decisions on the Offensive line will be fascinating, Fant and Brown will be gone. Herbig bet on himself and won, should be in demand. McGovern is a very tough decision, the Jets need a Center. Joe Douglas will be challenged in 2023.
Related to the salary question is how we'll draft. What do you think is our priorities?
I think we need a Safety upgrade. Maybe 2.
We need to draft a LB. Quincy is much improved but especially with CJ aging and expensive, we'll need another
We've poured so much capital into OL, but it's still not enough. LG is set. AVT is our best and position flexible. CMG can return as the rock of the line. But the rest are questions.
Fant has a 5 game audition. Becton, Fant, Mitchell - who will step up? Can't rely on health, but can't have 8 figure swing tackles.
Is Herbig a starting RG with AVT starting OT?
That's a good question and easy answer but I think we'll go best player available, that's JD's MO.
However in my opinion I see safety, tackle and linebacker as three key areas we need to address. Quincy and Kwon are free agents and CJ is about to enter the twilight years of his career, he's still got a few good ones in him but we need to start planning. We really haven't seen enough of Sherwood to understand if he is the longterm answer for that ILB spot going forward.
Free safety is a huge priority for me, I feel we're one safety away from having the most dominant secondary in football.
Fant will be gone IMO and there is a cloud hanging over Mitchell now as we don't know the reason for this non-football injury designation, that could be a healthy issue that we may need to consider in the draft, but again I don't really want to guess on that one.
I'd go with those three as our main priorities.
Lawson is really good, and maybe still getting back to full strength from injury, but we're loaded at DE. He hasn't become the dominant edge rusher we imagined, but maybe he's still recovering from injury?
Do you think JJ replaces Lawson? If you draft a R1 DE, you need to play him when worthy.
They don't seem to want to keep JFM inside. I think JFM and JJ are our starting DE tandem for next year, with Huff on 3rd down pass rush situations
Corey Davis is a really good player,for all parts of the game. We're better with him on the field. Mims isn't at the same level, but there's only so many footballs to go around.
Without CD, Moore and GW become the lead duo, with Mims stepping up and maybe Berrios getting more role. It would certainly rely on Elijah to show the magic we saw in his rookie season, and Mims to break out.
As I understand it Joe D inherited a nightmare of dead cap money; one of the highest in the league.
He has all but eliminated that issue as DWH's graphic showed (the one w/ Jacob Martin's $2.3m).
He has done a masterful job.
I would be cutting Joyner and Curry as well as Lawson (unless a serious restructure is made).
Our needs are relatively small compared to past yrs...Safety, LB and OLine depth most front and center.
You're absolutely right there. The Jets had over $53 million in dead cap in 2020 which showed how poorly previously GMs had managed the cap. In 2021 that number had decreased to $35.8 million which was still the 9th highest amount in the league, but in 2022 it plummeted to $11.5 million which was the 2nd lowest in the league and next year it'll be $2.8 million.
You again have shown how you keep your subscribers aware and alert to our team at levels of introspection that is stunning. I for one consider my subscription a phenomenal resource and thank you fervently!
Really appreciate that Philipp. In the off-season we'll get into more detail on the cap and contract structure, but just wanted to touch base with it on a top level to try and communicate that this off-season will likely look a lot different.
Thanks DWH. I rarely think about the cap and the financial side of football even though it is critically important. I also find it terribly confusing. You broke it down nicely and made it much clearer to me. I hope that Joe D is as solid in this area as he seems to be on the player personnel side. Love the team he has created. Now, to just keep it together! Happy holidays David.
Absolutely Maine, it's not always the most interesting thing to look at, but it's certainly very important. Looking at the longterm implications, Joe D has done a good job not pushing cap into future years as we can see from the 2024 and 2025 numbers, so he has that flexibility to do that with the guys he knows he wants to keep long term, thinking Quinnen Williams here and when we need to extend Sauce and Garrett and people like that.
Hey David -- I think this is spot on. I was doing similar math yesterday, and something that stuck out to me is: if you go to the overthecap page for contenders like Dallas, Eagles, Bills, they have contracts through 2028. The Jets only have deals through 2025, and as you mention hardly any of that cap is spent. The Jets are in a unique position where they need money to extend their own good, young core players, instead of taking gambles on free agents. This changes the math in a way that for Jets fans is unfamiliar (at least, that's what I tell myself to rationalize harsh realities like the dreadful Tomlinson contract).
I understand why you probably didn't want to open this can of worms, but working to retain players also always helps with the comp pick formula, which I believe JD hugely values.
Absolutely Will, that's a really good thought and I wrote something for Jets X-Factor back in June about something very similar https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/06/21/ny-jets-joe-douglas-financial-flexibility/ - Just looking at Joe's reluctance to push contacts down the line which adds flexibility to managing the cap when things get close. As you've pointed out, a lot of teams have guys signed through 2026-2027 etc and that's to spread out of the cost in terms of cap implications. Jets have yet to do that, but I think we'll see that change this year with Quinnen's contract extension.
What is very hard to fathom - the "baby" jets are at the cap or near it. How do the Bills, Chiefs, Bucs - do it with the most expensive QBs on the planet ? If they really are the youngest team in the NFL then someone (Douglas) did a terrible job managing the cap. There shouldnt even be a discussion on this at this part of the rebuild.