The Wide Receiver Question

Jets need to do more to help Zach Wilson

✈️ Good morning,

Yesterday I touched on the offensive line and how the Jets simply couldn’t afford to allocate more resources to that position group. If you missed my piece for Jet X then you can check that out here.

I also outlined five offensive tackles that the Jets could target in the draft outside the first round in yesterday’s TJW newsletter.

Today I wanted to focus on wide receiver, a position that needs serious attention if the Jets want to help Zach Wilson make the leap next season.

Depth Chart 📊

Corey Davis | Jeff Smith | Tariq Black
Elijah Moore | Denzel Mims | Rodney Adams
Braxton Berrios | D.J Montgomery

The Jets haven’t added to the position through the first week of free agency, so as it stands the depth chart is weaker than opening day 2021.

The goal for any franchise is to improve position groups from one season to the next, at the moment we’ve subtracted Keelan Cole (currently a FA) and Jamison Crowder (signed with the Bills).

If we were to head into the 2022 NFL season with this lineup of receivers, I’d be bitterly disappointed, but that’s not going to happen.

It could be argued that only past 2022, we only have two guaranteed receivers on the roster. 2021 2nd round draft selection Elijah Moore and recently re-signed Braxton Berrios.

Elijah Moore is one of the most exciting wide receiver prospects the Jets have had over the last couple of decades. People want to say the Jets need a WR1, but Moore may be that WR1 we've been looking at.

What we need from Moore is for him to stay healthy, then we’ll really understand what we have.

The Jets could cut Braxton after 2022 and save $5 million, but they’d lose $3.2 million in dead cap, so I just don’t see that happening.

On the other hand, the Jets can move on from Corey Davis after 2022 and save $10.5 million while only losing $666k.

Davis was maddeningly inconsistent in his first year with the team. He missed time with injuries and had the worst season of his career since his rookie campaign in 2017.

His YAC/reception was down at 3.4 (149th in the league) and his 15% drop rate was the 9th worst mark in the league (minimum 20 targets).

The good news for the Jets is that Davis likely won’t be any worse than he was in 2021. Even if he reverts to his career drop rate of 7.3%, it’s going to be a huge improvement.

Coming into 2021 Davis was also coming off back-to-back seasons with a contested-catch rate over 60% (71.4% in 2019 and 64.7% in 2020), that number plummeted to 46.2% in 2021, so the hope is that reverts to pre-Jets form too.

Davis will also be playing for his future and his contract. He knows he needs to be better to secure that $11.1 million salary in 2023 and beyond.

It’s not the worst wide receiver room in the NFL, but as it stands, it’s far from the best. So how do the Jets go about improving the talent at the position?

Premium Draft Selection 🌟

Do the Jets pick one of the top receivers in the draft? That’s going to be a topic of conversation for the next month or so.

I’ve put together a comparison table for 7 of the top prospects for the 2022 NFL draft. These are their regular season stats from 2021 (2020 for George Pickens considering his injury).

What do the Jets tend to look for from their wide receivers? Logic would dictate that YAC and a low drop % would be at the top of the list. If that’s the case then Treylon Burks and Jahan Dotson are the players for you.

But what are the Jets missing from their receiver group? The ability to win contested catches. Outside of Braxton Berrios (83.3% in 2021), the Jets didn’t have any outside receivers over 50%, if you can’t win your contested catches on the outside, your QB is in a bit of trouble.

Drake London is the standout here, but an argument can be made that Olave, Wilson, and Pickens are all up there based on their contested-catch % being above 60. Pickens doesn’t have the volume that the other receivers do, but he does have the contested catch rate paired with a low drop rate.

But do you need to spend a first-round pick on a wide receiver for top-tier production?

Many have commented that the 2022 NFL drafts lack that elite talent at the WR position. Right now the accepted view is that there isn't a Chase-type talent.

Of course, nobody really knows. Nobody expected DK to be DK and nobody expected Tyreek Hill to be as good as he's been. In fact, if you look at the top 50 rated wide receivers from the 2021 season, only 17 were taken in the first round (34%) and only 8 of the top 25 were taken in the first (32%).

This leads us to the value proposition question. If there isn’t an elite talent like Chase available, how big is the drop from someone you can get at pick #10 (Wilson, London) and someone who may be available at #35 (Pickens, Watson, Dotson).

I think the keyword in that paragraph is “may”, at #4 you can guarantee your choice of receiver. At pick #10 you can likely bad one of the top three receivers, but if there’s a run at the position there’s a slight chance that all of the highly-rated receivers will be gone by pick #35, and that’s the risk you take.

My preference has always been to trade back in this draft and that’s becoming more likely as the QB carousel continues to spin. My good pal Andrew Golden released his latest mock draft yesterday and to be it is perfection:

Jermaine Johnson, Jordan Davis, and Chris Olave? That sets the Jets up nicely for a playoff push in 2022. You get your Edge, your dominant defensive lineman, and one of the best receivers in football, a player who’s being seriously undervalued by most pundits as we head into draft season.

Can you remember the last time the Jets selected a wide receiver in the first round?

It was Santana Moss in 2001, we’ve made 23 selections since without taking a receiver. In what is a passing league, the Jets haven’t taken a receiver in the first round in two decades, that by itself is an incredible stat.

In fact, since 1961, we’ve only selected 5 receivers in the first round and that’s including Jerome Barkum who was more of a TE for the Jets (#9 overall in 1972).

There is a counterargument that it’s easier to find elite wide receiver talent later in the draft. Back in December, I took a look at where All-Pro’s were generally drafted and then ranked each position based on the findings. I found that of all the positional groups in football, wide receiver is the easiest one to find elite talent outside the first round.

Saying that…I’d still take a receiver in the first round. If we can move down and pick up two key defensive players while getting a player like Olave, I’m game.

Free Agency

There are still options available in free agency. Jarvis Landry was injured in 2021, but he’s been a healthy and productive receiver over the course of his career.

Will Fuller has had his issues, but he’d help the Jets stretch the field. Julio Jones is an option, although it’s questionable how much he has left in the tank.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is personally my favorite receiver still available, another guy who can stretch the field and comes from a similar system in Green Bay.

Keelan Cole who was with the Jets last season is still available and it would be logical to bring him back for another season, he already knows the system and he’s already got some chemistry with Wilson.

We haven’t mentioned Sammy Watkins here, but he averaged 14.6 yards per reception last season in Baltimore. Marquise Goodwin did something similar in Chicago (15.7 yards per reception).

There are options to add some quality depth to the lineup.

Around the NFL

• Miami reeled in a big fish by agreeing to a contract with offensive tackle Terron Armstead for 5 years and $75 million. Armstead allowed just 1 sack and 12 total pressures over 263 pass-blocking snaps.

• Instead of trading DK Metcalf the Seahawks have come out and expressed their wish to extend his contract. It never made much sense for Seattle to part with a young playmaker who they’d just need to replace in the re-build.

• The Rams are looking to work on a new contract for star defensive tackle Aaron Donal, while also looking to bring OBJ back to LA.

• OLB Za’Darius Smith who had recently agreed to a deal with Baltimore before backing out, agreed to a contract yesterday with the Vikings for 3 years and $42 million + incentives.

• Despite the rumors, according to a report by Sports Illustrated, the Carolina Panthers are not interested in trading for Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield.

As always I appreciate you guys checking in. Let me know if there are any topics you’d like covered in TJW newsletters.