The Stat Pack: Buffalo Bills

Edition #283

Good morning! ☀️

So the Dolphins couldn’t do us a favour, of course, they couldn’t. With Miami losing to the Chargers our route to the playoffs has been complicated. But If we win all four games remaining on our schedule we’ve got a shot. ESPN gives us around a 25% chance of making the playoffs, usually in December we’ve already been eliminated, so I’ll take it.

I’ve been working through some of the film from yesterday’s game and some things really stood out. Mike White made some incredibly difficult throws, not just good throws, but outstanding ones. The officials had as bad a day as the Jet’s offensive line, the late hit on Garrett was so clear and obvious, and Huff was held on at least 3 occasions. It was the only way they could slow him down.

🤕 Some injury news to start things off. Mike White and Corey Davis are both day-to-day with injuries but the hope is that both will be available for Sunday. Quinnen Williams however is 50-50. That would be a huge loss if he’s unable to go. However, Brandin Echols and Marcell Harris have already been ruled out for the game against Detroit. Harris may be done for the year according to Saleh, but they’ll know more this week.

🔨 More on White as Saleh said he thought the Jets QB was “Awesome” and added, "He's tough as nails, man ... he was playing really, really, really well."

🚑 White said that he had a scan at a hospital which cleared him to fly, and although he feels sore today he’s “ready to roll” adding that the hits were part and parcel of the game. "That's football ... you want to prove to your guys you're willing to take the hits and that you're willing to lay it all out there for them." When asked if there was any doubt he would return to the field after the x-rays cleared him, White responded "You would've had to peel me off that field."

👊 Saleh said that it was positive that the Jets "can go toe to toe with anyone." Now it’s about finding that consistency and fixing the mistakes to make sure we win more than we lose. He also commented that the next four games are basically playoff games. When asked about his comments about making the playoffs, Saleh said "There's a confidence I have. Maybe it's a blind bias, I don't know. It's just a belief in our team."

2️⃣ Coach Saleh wouldn’t name a backup QB for Sunday, saying instead that Wilson was ready for it if they decide to make him #2, and that the former 2nd overall pick was in a good mental space. I don’t think the Jets want to see Flacco back on the field again anytime soon.

I had a quick flick through the stats before starting this column today and there is a lot to love in there. My perception that the offensive line struggled was a little wide of the mark when you look at the base stats, but even with the pressure numbers I still don’t believe the Jets offensive line covered themselves in glory yesterday.

One aspect of White’s game that has impressed me more than any other is his ability to push the ball downfield. He almost looks as good 10+ yards down the field as he does close to the line. Being 1-5 on the left-hand side between 10-20 is an area he’ll look to improve on, but he sees the middle of the field and the right really well.

One thing White is doing well is limiting his turnover-worthy-play rate which was at 2.1% yesterday based on just one throw that was deemed risky. His time to throw of 2.57 seconds is right around where you want it and that’s a good sign considering he had 16 passing attempts of 10+ yards down the field.

White was pressured on over 23% of his dropbacks and he completed just 37.5% of those, although his adjusted completion under pressure was over 75%, so that’s quite the difference between his actual and expected. The PFF numbers on depth slightly contradict the chart above which was taken from Next Gen stats:

Wide Receivers

Losing Corey Davis early in the game really hurt the Jets, the one catch he did make showed his ability and it also showed the trust that Mike has in him. Receivers caught 68.3% of all targets thrown their way which is a good sign. I love that Garrett and Elijah are both eating in the current version of the Jet’s offense, and that’s exactly what should happen.

Buffalo are a fine defensive unit and that’s reflected in the yards-after-catch totals. The Jets registered just 76 yards after the catch with Garrett Wilson leading the charge on 21. Braxton Berrios was the only receiver to register a drop and Wilson caught 100% of his contested catch opportunities (2-2). Berrios was 1-3 on on contested catches, but that’s really not his game at all.

Elijah Moore spent 63.8% of his snaps in the slot with Garrett Wilson spending 37.3% of his snaps there. Interestingly the Jets tried Denzel Mims in the slot on a fair amount of his snaps (22.9%).

Running Backs

It was very clear who the better running back was yesterday. Bam led the backfield in touches, yards, yards per attempt, yards after contact and missed tackles forced. He also had 4 attempts which went for 10+ yards.

My concern with Carter this year is his inability to force missed tackles and he registered 0 missed tackles forced yesterday, whereas Zonovan was up at 9. Obviously more rushing attempts = more opportunities for those missed tackles, but even so, I think it’s clear from watching the game that there is something missing there this year.

Pass Protection

I’ve labelled this section pass-protection rather than offensive line and if you check the chart below you’ll see why. The one to point out from the PFF numbers below is Tyler Conklin who has been given a 0.0 pass-blocking grade due to him allowing 3 pressures and a sack on just 5 pass-blocking snaps, I mean that’s pretty incredible and by incredible I mean incredibly bad. C.J. Uzomah was tagged with a sack and it was Mike Remmers who was beaten like a drum on that Joe Flacco fumble.

Duane Brown did a fine job at left tackle and I was surprised to see Laken only credited with one pressure, as to the naked eye it looked as though he struggled all afternoon. 12 pressures and 3 sacks aren’t quite as bad as I thought they would be, White was sacked 3 times from memory so PFF must have attributed one of those to the QB himself. It was another solid game for Nate Herbig who was the only offensive lineman to allow 0 pressures.

Knight and Carter only combined for 6 pass-blocking snaps and with the ease Buffalo was getting through, I thought there was reason to keep the backs in blocking a little bit more.

Pass Rush

Losing Quinnen was absolutely huge in this game. He was dominating inside and he was aggressive in both the run game and as a pass-rusher. Even without Quinnen though, the Jets made life very tough for Allan who threw for under 150 yards and was kept to below 60% completion.

JFM and Quinnen were the two stars but Bryce Huff gained 3 pressures on just 11 pass-rush snaps which is a win % of 44.4%. Carl Lawson generated the same on 24 pass-rushing snaps and the further we get through the season, the more I think the evidence piles up to let Lawson go and get Jermaine Johnson and Bryce Huff more involved in the pass rush game.

It was good to see Sauce used off the edge as well, he levelled Allen and was very close to getting a sack. One thing we do need to address at some point is the bounceback season Nathan Shepherd is having, he pops up pretty much every week with a play or two and yesterday was no different, two pressures.

Coverage

When Josh Allen throws for under 150 yards and Stefon Diggs is held to a season-low in receiving yards, you know your coverage unit has done a fine job.

Between our two outside cornerbacks we gave up 40 yards total, and Sauce only gave up 6 of them. The Knox touchdown was put on Quincy and I do think a coverage linebacker is needed with this team, but across the board, the Jets did a really nice job.

It was good to see CJ move in space so well for that PBU and while MC2 had a PBU of his own, he got called for a couple of penalties which were momentum-killers. Saying that he only allowed one catch for 6 yards, so that 40.4 grade is very harsh if you ask me.

Just like with Buffalo, we did a nice job limiting those yards after the catch opportunities and that was great to see. In many ways, the Jets and Bills have a very similar defense and because of that, we’ll be in every single game we play.

Special Teams

One thing I failed to mention in yesterday’s summary was Jermaine Johnson’s punt return, as a huge JJ stan that’s unforgivable. That block led to safety which brought the Jets to within one score, it was an excellent play and while JJ needs to be patient on the defensive side of the ball for more opportunities, he’s doing everything asked on the special teams unit.

Braden Mann had an up-and-down day. He had 3 punts down day, he had three punts downed inside the 20-yard line, but his net yardage of 35.6 was 17th out of 19 punters who attempted more than one punt this weekend, and his average hang time of 4.06 was 15th out of 19 which is really poor. Difficult conditions, but not a great week for Mann.