The Slight Lean
Edition #342
Good morning ☀️
Welcome to another week of TJW. Something tells me that it's going to be a big week and the QB situation will be resolved in the coming days.
We're about to hit free agency and then the draft, so there's no better time to upgrade to receive TJW every single weekday.
We've got a few things to get to today. So let's get into it.
We’ll start with just a few quick notes on the offensive linemen. Last week we focused on some data trends to indicate which drills were important. Tomorrow I’m going to look back at that data using the results from the 2023 combine to project some players.
🤘 Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown met formally with the Jets at the combine but has spoken informally to linebackers coach Mike Rutenberg on several occasions. Overshown was a standout for the Longhorns and showcases the kind of range and coverage ability to the Jets have been lacking.
💼 The Jets also met with center John Michael Schmitz who is a favorite here on TJW. JMS said in his media availability that he could and would play all three interior spots. We need a center, but you all know how much Joe Douglas loves versatility.
🐶 Georgia safety Chris Smith is another name to watch. The Jets sought him out at the Senior Bown and met with him again in Indianapolis. Smith is likely to go at the top of the second round. The Jets also had a formal interview with Texas A&M safety Antonio Johnson.
📈 Broderick Jones cemented his place at the top of the draft with his workout at the combine. He ran the fastest 40-yard dash of any player and his arms came in at nearly 35” which is very good for a tackle. But the thing that impressed me the most was the fluidity he moved within the change of direction drills.
🔶 Darnell Wright also locked up his first-round status with the way he moved at 333 lbs. His arms checked out and his speed was good (5.01), combine that with his tape at Tennessee and the way he moved around the field and there is little chance of him falling into the second.
🔷 John Gaines, the UCLA guard put on quite a show at his workout. He was in the top five for the 40-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump and ran the fastest 3-cone drill too. I haven’t looked at Gaines yet, but that made me want to head back to some UCLA games to see if it matches.
🏋️ Blake Freeland put on one hell of a performance in Indianapolis. He was first in both the broad and vertical jumps, third in the 40-yard dash, and looked pretty smooth throughout. His measurements came in fine and he stands at a lofty 6’8. He’s certainly a name to watch in the pre-draft process.
📈 Sidy Sow from Eastern Michigan was another player the NFL crew highlighted yesterday. He looked very good in the drills, showcased plenty of power on the bags, and measured in at 6’5, 323lbs with 34-inch arms…not bad at all. He’s a guard who will probably be in demand through the middle rounds.
Let's start with the QB situation. I had my very own retreat this week, tuning out of the chatter on Sunday to have a much-needed break from the speculation.
Of course, we actually got a snippet of information on Sunday from Jeremy Fowler.
There are three reasons why a report like this gets leaked to the media:
Carr’s agent is using it to try and get more money elsewhere, such as in New Orleans.
Carr’s agent is trying to put some pressure on the Jets if the Jets are holding up completion waiting on Aaron Rodgers.
Carr is finishing his process and as of today, he’s actually leaning toward the Jets. We know for a fact that the Jets fell hard for Carr on his visit, and we know that the feelings were reciprocal.
Over the weekend it was revealed that two more teams had entered the race for Carr. The identity of those teams was not revealed, but speculation put Tampa Bay in the mix.
For me, that was the bargaining chip that got played. When teams enter the mix and they’re not identified, 9/10 that’s the agent or someone close to the player camp leaking the information. It’s used as a final ploy to get the teams you’re negotiating with to up their offers.
I’ve been pretty consistent with my read on the Carr situation over the weeks. He is doing his due diligence as he should and having completed his visits nearly 2 weeks ago now, I feel the decision is drawing near.
I know people are saying the Jets are waiting on Rodgers but with both Saleh and Joe Douglas talking about respecting Derek’s process, I’ve always had the impression that if he said he’s signing, they’d sign without hesitation. Joe Douglas also said that having to give up draft compensation would come into the equation. Maybe I’m wrong about that, but we may find out this week.
What this may do is speed up Aaron Rodger’s decision as well. If he does want to play for the Jets, and that’s a huge if, then he can’t keep everyone holding. I know retirement is a decision that can’t be taken lightly, but at the same time, this is giving the Jets some insight into what they’ll be going through next year if we do decide to trade for him.
Considering Carr is my #1 choice for the Jets QB moving forward, this is at least some excitement to start the week.
It was reported by ESPN on Sunday that Jets tackle Duane Brown has elected to play next season after considering retirement following shoulder surgery.
We knew that Brown was playing through a rotator cuff injury last year and that selfless sacrifice endeared him to his coach and teammates.
The team actually created a ‘selfless warrior’ award to hand to Brown following the season.
Saleh spoke about Brown in last week’s press conference saying how much he’d love to have him back, and he has his wish.
“Yeah, I saw Duane in the weight room a couple of days ago. Duane is a freaking rockstar man, the way he fought through pain and injury and he did what I’d say 90% of players probably wouldn’t have done, in terms of playing when he didn’t have to, all his money was already guaranteed and the guy still strapped up and played however many games it was…lot of respect for him, love his grind, love his grit, love what he stands for and if he’s here that would be awesome”
Brown is set to count $11,281,882 against the cap next year having signed a 2-year deal, and that deal includes three void years between 2024-26.
Considering Brown was playing through a pretty significant injury, he did a very respectable job last year for the Jets.
The veteran allowed 1 sack and 23 pressures over 450 pass-blocking snaps, and while he was graded poorly in the run game (44.4) he was more than serviceable in pass protection.
I saw a few comments online about the Jets being able to mark tackle off the early draft list now, but personally, I don’t think anything has changed.
The Jets have Brown who’s entering his age 38 season having come off shoulder surgery, Max Mitchell who was OK but who has his own health concerns, and Mekhi Becton who hasn’t played in 2 years.
Are you comfortable going into the season with that lineup and a tackle drafted in the middle rounds? Personally, I’m not.
PROSPECT PROFILE
Name: AT Perry
Position: Wide Receiver
Class: Junior
Team: Wake Forrest
Projection: 3rd Round
2022 Stats: 81 receptions, 1096 yards, 11 TDs, 8 Drops, 44% contested catcher
Height/Weight/Speed: 6’5, 205lbs, 4.47 seconds
Strengths: Back-to-back 1000-yard seasons. Showcases very good body control and consistent adjustment to poorly thrown passes. Mixes up his tempos to keep defenders off balance. Uses his body well on a lot of west coast receiver routes like crossers and slants. Prototypical size for the X receiver and does have the strength and power to block on the outside.
Weaknesses: Has had 17 drops over the last two seasons and at 6’5 and over 200lbs he should be coming down with more than 40% of his contested catches, which is his lifetime average at Wake. Does struggle to win against press coverage consistently, and can get jammed on the line which causes timing issues.
Final View: I really like Perry as a prospect but he’s certainly not the finished article. He’ll need to work on his release to get better separation at the next level, he doesn’t have a varied release package which may make him easier to defend at the pro level. I want to see more completions on those contested catches, but that will probably come with better coaching at the next level.
I think Douglas has been around as a scout and team executive long enough to figure out that Rodgers could become a problem for the Jets next year simply because while Rodgers hasn’t said he wants to retire this year, who says that at one year older, he won’t retire next year. Throw in traded draft picks and the hit on the cap, Carr at 7 years younger though not as talented is a more viable pick up.
Also by getting Carr, Zach’s future with the team will be he has no future with the team. If the Jets get Rodgers, would the Jets be forced to kick in Zach’s fifth year option, next year.
Hopefully by getting Carr, barring injury, the Jets will be stabilizing the teams quarterback situation for at least 3-4 years.
Hoping to sign Carr this week, if the Jets do, Douglas, Saleh, Hackett & Downing did a Hell of a Sales Job. Could Gase have pulled this off ? I don’t think so .The Saints seem to be the primary competition, and they have been restructuring everyone they can, just to get under the CAP. Restructuring can get you just so far, New Orleans is going to have to cut some folks. The CAP is increasing, but is 2024 the Saints are over the CAP by only 29 million, compared to the Jets at 112 million. I can’t see how the Saints can pay Carr, even with all the CAP gyrations.
Speaking of CAP, 11 million for a Left Tackle is cheap, Duane Brown at LT is great for the Jets. Becton moves to Right Tackle . Mekhi & AVT on the right side , run right all day long. Not sure if one of the top three OT’s can make it to 13. Okay with Schmidtz at 13.