The Perfect Opportunity?

Edition #528

Good morning!☕

Not sure if you’ve managed to wash the stink off from Friday’s performance, but we’re into a new week and it’s time to look ahead.

At some point, we’ll look to Atlanta, but right now we’re looking further ahead to the off-season. I feel like I say this every year, but this off-season is vital for the future of this organisation

Are the Jets really handcuffed or can they make significant changes?

🟢 According to a report by Ian Rapoport, Aaron Rodgers could return to team training as soon as this week. Next week is more likely, but this week is possible. If he returns this week, he will probably need 2-3 weeks to get back up to speed which puts him on course to play December 24th against the Commanders, with a slight outside chance that he could play December 17th in Miami against the Dolphins. If the Jets lose to the Falcons and Texans, I really don’t see the point in him returning. But let’s leave that discussion for another day. Robert Saleh didn’t have an update: “He is in the building. With regard to practice, I don’t have anything for you guys on that. Like I said, when we get a doctor’s note that says he is cleared, he will be cleared for practice.”

⚪ However, there is good news for this week. Duane Brown, Mekhi Becton and Wes Schweitzer could all return in time for Atlanta. None of those guys have had an amazing season but they’re certainly an upgrade on Carter Warren, Max Mitchell and Xavier Newman-Johnson. The line is a complete mess this year, but once again there have been a number of injuries to key personnel…which is as traditional for the Jets as Thanksgiving.

🟢 Robert Saleh confirmed that Tim Boyle will start this week against Atlanta. “Yes, we’re giving Timmy (Tim Boyle) another shot to roll next week. Obviously, there are things that he could have done better, and there are things that he had no control over and I know he battled out there. We were able to get to certain calls that we were hoping to do. We were able to execute a lot of the different things that we wanted to execute, it just didn’t come to full fruition.”

⚪ You may have noticed that Izzy went MIA again this week, and Robert Saleh was explicitly asked about the lack of playing time for him: “They were blitzing quite significantly in some cases and the backs have to be able to understand protections and be able to pick up those blitzes, they do get complex, and it’s something that he needs to get better at, but we’re trying to protect the quarterback the best we can.” Unfortunately, none of our running backs are really proficient pass-blockers.

🟢 I actually responded to Rich Cimini on his comment about the lack of deep shots, pointing out that long developing plays require a certain level of pass-protection, but Robert Saleh was asked about the lack of deep shots and what the Jets can do in terms of moving away from their base offence - “Yeah, there’s a lot of things you can do. You can try to do it anyway. Despite the fact that we’re not throwing the ball very far downfield, we’re still sacked seven times. So, the deeper those routes get, the more you have to protect. There is a level of difficulty in that as we try to get continuity. It’s like I said, I love the five guys that we got playing with on the offensive line, but when you don’t get a chance to play consecutive weeks or some time together, it gets hard to understand all the nuance that comes with continuity. So yeah, we can continue trying to push the ball down the field, but it’s it takes all 11 to make that play happen.”

⚪ Some people were unahppy with Robert Saleh speaking about what Breece needs to do to get back to his dominant self, but last time I checked he was still the coach and offering advice to his players is part of the role he gets paid handsomely for: "He's a big back -- he's 220 pounds and he's got elite speed -- but he also has the elite ability to lower his shoulder and get vertical when he needs to," Saleh said. "And once he reconnects to that, I think it'll all come back to we'll start seeing him for what we know he is.”

🟢 Will McDonald is on course to play less than 200 snaps on the defensive side of the ball this year. If that happens, he’ll be the first first-round pick to play less than 200 snaps on their side of the ball since Vernon Gholston back in 2008. Now Vernon didn’t play because he wasn’t very good, Will has flashed serious potential but he’s stuck on the depth chart. This does raise the question as to whether he should have been the pick full stop.

⚪ Lazard has been extremely poor with a drop rate of around 20%, significantly higher than his career average. But the Jets need to find a way to make him tick because he’s got a fully guaranteed $10 million salary next year and a cap charge of $12.2 million. Making him inactive is a good way to hold him accountable for his poor form, but you have to find a way to get him going.

🟢 Here’s a quick look at the AFC East after yesterday’s games. You have the feeling the Dolphins will run away with this. Buffalo dropped a heartbreaker against the Eagles and the Patriots lost a stinker 10-7 to the Giants. They’ve now lost 4 in a row, which I love to see…but they’re also putting themselves in with a shot of landing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye…and I don’t love that.

⚪ As for the Jets, we’re currently sitting there with the 8th overall selection, but we’re not too far out of being in the top 4. This draft is set to have some elite talent at positions of need (QB, OT, WR), so while nobody wanted to be in this spot, I like the idea of a top-10 pick in this draft. It’ll be interesting to see what the Bears do with those two high picks, they could either auction it for a king’s ransom if they’re sold on Justin Fields who has made consistent improvement over three years, or they take the QB who’s #1 on their board and pair him with one of those elite tackles in Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu.

➡️ A friend and avid Jets fan made a strong point to me over the weekend. Are the Jets really handcuffed with Robert Saleh, Nathaniel Hackett and Joe Douglas? How appealing is the job to potential candidates, it got me thinking…if one domino can fall, the Jets are an extremely attractive proposition. So rather than being handcuffed, is 2024 the perfect time to make a change at 1JD?

Aaron Rodgers holds the key to all of this.

If Aaron Rodgers were to unequivocally commit his future to the Jets next year regardless of who was in charge, the Jets would become one of the premier destinations for the tier one GM and coaching candidates.

Aaron is a big boy, he doesn’t need anyone to hold his hand and I’m sure he’d be heavily involved and consulted on any potential hire. But if you said to potential coaches and coordinators that you could walk into the Jets job with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, a payroll that’s workable, a #1 draft pick that will likely be top 15 one, and a top-5 defence in football…are you going to turn that down?

I don’t think there is a single GM or coach in football…looking for a job, who would turn that down. I know there is a fan perception that Woody is a big issue, but based on the limited conversations I’ve had with people closer to the game than me, I don’t think that’s a common concern within the NFL.

So if you want to attract the absolute best, far from this being the worst off-season to do it, I’d argue it’s actually the best. It’s not often that a new coach gets to walk in and coach a surefire Hall of Famer. That coach can also cherry-pick his long-term successor and have the luxury of that player sitting for a year.

I fully expect the Jets to return the full cast next year. I think we can win just enough games to make Woody feel confident that with a fully healthy Rodgers, this team has the potential next year that we thought it had this year. Will that be a mistake? Almost certainly.

Do you remember when we were led to believe that Joe Douglas’s speciality was the offensive line?

The evidence is starting to mount to contradict that heavily.

We all know about the Mekhi Becton v Tristan Wirfs argument, we lost that one a long time ago.

But recently the depth drafts have started to occupy more and more of my brainpower. Players like Max Mitchell and Carter Warren.

Sometimes players are forced to play before the ideal timeline. That happens all around the league, it’s certainly not exclusive to the Jets. Continued fluctuation is difficult and I’m by no means writing off either Warren or Mitchell. That would be completely unfair and unjustified.

But if you take a sample of 100 snaps at tackle, here are how the Jets tackles rank out of 93 qualified players.

Carter Warren - 88
Billy Turner - 82
Max Mitchell - 81
Duane Brown - 75
Mekhi Becton - 61

Alijah Vera-Tucker is the one bright spot at 28, but we’re obviously not getting him back this year and we’ve had to survive without him quite a lot.

Within that group, you have three players drafted by Joe Douglas and two free agents signed by Joe Douglas, and all of them are in the bottom tier of offensive tackles.

Max Mitchell is having a horrible season having allowed 6 sacks and 25 pressures over 306 pass-blocking snaps. Carter Warren has allowed 2 sacks and 8 pressures over 85 pass-blocking snaps. Mekhi before he went down was at 6 sacks and 31 pressures in 381 pass-blocking snaps.

It’s also worth noting that none of them are excelling with their run-blocking either.

You have to praise the Joe Tippmann signing, as he really has been the lone bright spot, but that’s a lot of failure for a positional guru.

I had a quick look around the league, and there are plenty of none “elite” talent making strides and performing at a high level. Over in Indy Bernhard Raimann who was a 3rd round pick of the Colts last year has allowed 2 sacks in nearly 400 pass-blocking snaps and is one of the higher-graded run blockers, all while manning LT for multiple QBs. Do you remember Zach Tom, the versatile lineman from Wake Forrest we were banging the drum for here on TJW? Well, right now he’s allowed 1 sack over 440 pass-blocking snaps in Green Bay as their RT. He was a 4th round pick.

You can continue this exercise and find numerous examples. The point here is that Joe Douglas has been unable to unearth that diamond in the rough, well Joe Douglas. and his scouting network. Even the first-round tackle has been playing at a below-average pace after missing two years. For me, that’s an issue and a big mark on the record for JD.