The Mike White Effect

Edition #293

Good morning!

At the start of the season, we all said that playing meaningful football in December was the goal for the 2022 season. Then we started 5-2 and that meaningful football turned into a playoff mandate, which is why the last month has been so depressing.

The football gods haven’t been overly kind to the Jets over the years, but this weekend they threw a lifejacket overboard just when the Jets’ season looked to be drowning. With multiple results going our way we will head to Seattle knowing that we have a chance to play past Miami, some data sites have us up at 70%.

We do need a touch of help along the way, we require either the Dolphins or Bills to beat the Patriots, and while it’s not a guarantee, the Patriots are a poor football team with glaring holes on their roster.

I feel the Dolphins will beat New England and then the Jets will head to Miami a week on Sunday with a “win and in” scenario, which fills me with excitement and an overwhelming sense of pure dread in equal measure.

Yesterday we were handed some positive news. Doctors have officially cleared Mike White, and according to multiple sources of the beat, he will start next Sunday in Seattle.

Game. On.

Mike White was officially cleared by the Jet’s team doctor this week and will be the starting QB for the rest of the season according to Saleh. The week-to-week nature is no more, this is Mike White’s team.

It was also confirmed that Joe Flacco will be the #2 quarterback this week and that they may use the Streveller package at some point. All of that points to Zach being inactive for the rest of the season.

Saleh did go to great lengths to back Zach Wilson, which is exactly what you’d expect a coach to do. When asked directly about the Fox Sports report stating the Jets were ready to move on from Zach this off-season he said it was pure conjecture, which is exactly what he should say even if those conversations have started. I can almost guarantee you the Jets have not made a firm decision yet.

Coach Saleh also said that he was hopeful that LaMarcus Joyner will be back this week. Joyner hasn’t been a particular strength this year, but he’s been better than the alternatives.

C.J. Mosley was asked about the return of Mike White: “He's proven he can be a winner in this league. The guys trust him. There's a spark when he's on the field."

One thing to keep an eye on is the injury to Dolphins QB Tua, who is currently in concussion protocol. This is the 3rd time that he’s entered the protocol this year and surely he shouldn’t play again this year for his own safety. Obviously, the Jets are heading to Miami next week for what’s shaping up to be a key game, but that’s outside the point, I don’t want to see any player, regardless of who they play for get put in harm’s way.

Who is Mike White?

We know he was a 5th-round pick of the Cowboys out of Western Kentucky in 2018. We know that over the final two years of his college career he was one of the most successful QBs in program history. If you combine his stats from 2016 & 2017 you get a player who flat-out dominated the competition to the tune of:

66.5% completion for 8,540 yards, 63 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

He then accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl where he completed 8-11 passes for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, at that point his stock was soaring but then came the combine. He put up one of the worst performances among QBs and the questions started being asked.

I both love and hate the combine. I love it because I’m a number nerd, I hate it because a lot of people put more stock into what these players do in shorts than what they do on the field. That’s how you end up drafting Vernon Gholston.

At the end of the draft process, many predicted that White would be drafted around the 3rd or 4th round, yet he lasted to the 171st pick.

The book on White was simple. He had good size, a good arm, and plenty of zip, but he failed to recognize blitzes and his processing speed was suspect. This seems strange to say considering if you were to ask me today what his strengths were, I’d say recognizing blitzes and making quick decisions, which is perhaps the greatest compliment to Mike.

Not every player who comes into the league is a star from day one. The guys that develop tend to work to make their greatest weaknesses a strength.

I can’t comment on his time in Dallas as I don’t follow the Cowboys close enough, but based on what I’ve read he had an up-and-down camp, was waived when Dallas decided to carry just two QBs and was let go in favor of Clayton Thorson who was signed to the practice squad. Thorson is now with the Houston Gamblers of the USFL and Mike White is preparing to start for the Jets in an NFL game with playoff implications, so that is what it is.

But, who is Mike White?

The very honest answer to that question is I don’t know. I can tell you who I think he is, but I can’t tell you for definite that’s who he is. Here’s who I think he is:

White is a QB with the prototypical size and the leadership skills to lead a team. He stands tall in the pocket, makes quick decisions, and delivers the ball in rhythm and on time within the structure of the offensive system. He doesn’t mind standing in the pocket and taking a hit and he can identify his hot reads when under pressure. He has little to no mobility, but he does climb and slide within the pocket. He can be prone to forcing the ball into a bad situation but also understands that he doesn’t have to do it all on his own. He’s picked up a few injuries but I don’t believe he’s “injury prone”, I just think he’s been unlucky with the contact injuries he’s picked up.

This is my interpretation of who Mike White is, but I don’t know if that is reality.

One question I keep asking myself, is he good enough to be the starting QB long-term? It’s a question that remains unanswered in my own mind, and I think that’s perfectly OK.

White signed with the Jets back in 2019, but we have just 6 games of data to work with and it’s been up and down. He’s completed 64.4% of his passes for 1905 yards, 8 TD, and 10 INT, but 4 of those INTs came in one game against Buffalo. That counts like all the others, but it offers perspective. Anyone can have a bad game, but bad QBs have multiple bad games strung together.

What I do know is that he’s averaging over 317 yards per game in 2022 and his interception rate has dropped from 6.1% last year to 1.6% this year and that’s huge. White has been pressured on 19.9% of dropbacks and he hasn’t thrown a single turnover-worthy play and that’s huge. It’s part of the reason why PFF rates him as the 3rd best QB in football when under pressure, despite completing just 47% of passes which would rank him 30/56.

If you look at his passing chart he’s actually had success at all three levels. 50% may not look like a good completion on passes over 20 yards down the field, but for all QBs who have attempted 10 passes of 20+ yards, if you completed 50% it would put you as the 4th best QB in the league. White has only completed 50% on the outside, but his overall completion of 41.7% still puts him in the top 15.

Yesterday Coach Saleh confirmed that Mike White would be the starting quarterback the rest of the way, but when asked whether White was the possible long-term solution he responded in a typical Robert Saleh way and insisted that there’s still a lot of information to gather, and that’s absolutely the right way to go about it.

Draft stock is important, whether you want to believe that or not, it is. Players drafted higher have more resources dedicated to their production, if a 5th-round pick doesn’t work out, it’s one of those things. If a 2nd overall pick doesn’t work out, then it’s a damning statement on your coaching staff, on your recruiting staff and on every personnel employee you have. That’s just the nature of the beast.

But today I say down and thought about Mike White and his production so far. I asked myself the question, if we had drafted White as a rookie first-round pick and he produced the following in his first six games of action, would I be happy?

64.4% completion
1905 Yards
8 touchdowns
10 interceptions
272 yards per game

I think my answer would be yes. Especially when you combine that with the pressure stats and the leadership skills. So my question becomes, are we undervaluing the prospect of Mike White being the starting QB based on arbitrary data, like the fact he was a 5th-round pick, or that he’s technically been in the league for 5 years now, despite just having 6 starts?

Let’s not forget that Kurt Warner was drafted out of Northern Iowa in 1994 and it wasn’t until 1998 that he got his chance with the Rams. I’m not saying that Mike White is Kurt Warner, what I’m saying is that we don’t have enough data to make an informed judgment of who Mike White is. I like to think I watch enough football to know a thing or two about talent evaluation, and I don’t feel as though I’ve seen enough of Mike to make a firm call either way. On occasions, I think he is the answer, at other points not so much, but I’m not ready to write him off completely in favor of someone like Gardner Minshew or Jimmy G.

Let’s not forget that against the Bears, Mike completed 22/28 passes for 315 yards and 3 touchdowns, many people scoffed at that performance because it was the Bears, but we’ve seen over the last two weeks how good that performance was, considering we’ve been unable to move the ball against two poor defenses in Jacksonville and Detroit.

Let’s just for argument’s sake say that he has two very strong games to finish off the 2022 season, we’re talking 65% completion with multiple touchdowns and limited or no interceptions, isn’t that the kind of quarterback performance that you want to invest in? Robert Saleh spoke about players needing time to develop and the NFL not being set up to allow that, most presumed he was talking about Zach and in reality he probably was, but why not extend that to Mike White.

When asked if he was open to Mike White being the answer, Saleh said to take it day by day but then later said that he and Joe would always do what was best for the organization, which was an added wrinkle to his standard answer.

I’m not saying that Mike White is definitely the answer, what I am saying is that I’m open to that idea. I think we all should be open to that idea.