The Analytical Mock Draft

Edition #578

Good morning! ☕

So we have our Super Bowl champions. Now the football season is officially in the books, we need to stare into the crystal ball to try and decipher how the Jets can get to the promised land. After a few quick notes, we’re going to look at a mock draft. What else are you to do on a Monday?

◼️ According to Ian Rapoport Aaron Rodgers has been trying to recruit Davante Adams, but the Las Vegas Raiders have no interest in trading him. Adams has also recently spoken in favour of the Raiders hiring Antonio Pierce and seems happy enough in Sin City. I’ve never loved the idea of trading assets for Adams and never really understood how it would all work, maybe this news story can disappear.

◼️ Adam Schefter seemed to indicate that the Cowboys had hired Mike Zimmer to be their new defensive coordinator, but Rex Ryan who interviewed for the position seemed to contradict that report: “First off, I’m not so sure Zimmer’s got that job right now,” Ryan said on Sunday. “Not real sure about that. I can honestly say I don’t believe that’s a fact right now.” - Maybe they haven’t fully decided but it sounds as though Marquand Manuel may be staying with the Jets.

◼️ According to ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler, The Jets have told Zach Wilson that he can start looking for a new home, weighing up where his ideal landing spots are. Apparently, he wants to play for an offensive-minded head coach which is no surprise. While Fowler said he had been allowed to weigh his options, he stopped short of saying that he had been granted permission to seek a trade. At the end of the day, the Jets will send Zach to the team that offers the best compensation.

◼️ It’s not every day that a player about to compete in the Super Bowl comes out and talks about wanting to play with the Jets, but Chiefs left tackle Donovan Smith has done just that “I’m a take-it-as-it-comes kind of guy, and I’m where my feet are right now, obviously, for this game,’’ Smith said. “But at the end of the day, it’s my life, my career, and I’ve got to figure it out. I grew up a Jets fan. I’m from New York, so that would definitely be something I would appreciate before my career ends.” Smith infamously held Jermaine Johnson on a non-call that set up the Chiefs to walk out of MetLife with a victory they didn’t deserve. Not sure he’s getting those non-calls in NY, and he’s actually coming off a very poor season.

◼️ Woody Johnson has officially revealed that the Jets will be releasing new jerseys ahead of the 2024 season. The five-year rule on home jerseys has finished and a team isn't going to miss an opportunity to make some money 💰 with a new set of uniforms. I mean releasing it right after the Super Bowl finished in the hope it would distract people from the abject failure of 2023 was a bold strategy 😂

◼️ Mecole Hardman went from being a Jets castoff who had one reception in 6 games to scoring the Super Bowl-winning TD. Another indictment on the Jets and more specifically Nathaniel Hackett.

Last month I spent a lot of time watching the New Year honbasho, or the Grand Sumo tournament, next month I’ll spend a significant amount of time watching the Nippon professional baseball league, in short, I like things that are a little bit different. It’s probably why I fell in love with the Jets or dreamed of skating at Madison Square Garden when I was a kid instead of scoring the winning goal at Wembley. So when a mock draft is released that’s a little bit different, I’m going to be all over it.

Cynthia Frelund is an analytics expert with NFL.com and when she releases a mock draft she uses a certain model that goes beyond the traditional.

When I do a mock draft I’ll look at the weakness of the team and the players available to fill that weakness, I’ll then pair them up and not think twice about it.

Here’s how the Cynthia Frelund model works:

I take the best available information about free agency, which right now is admittedly not much more than what we know about player contracts, to predict players' market value.

I then check free agents' projected market value against the anticipated salary-cap space for each team.

Finally, I add potential free agents or drafted players to different teams and identify which individuals increase teams' projected win total the most. (My player model leverages historical pre-draft player data to forecast NFL performance.)

When all that is said and done she optimises for wins next season, no long-term planning here. No Will McDonalds designed to help you win games in 2025 type drafts. Based on free agency, salary cap designs and expected available options, which draft pick gives you the best chance to increase your wins next year?

The model doesn’t always work as GM’s need to plan more than a year in advance, but the Jets signalled their intent to move to a “win-now” franchise as soon as they pulled the trigger on the Aaron Rodgers deal.

The Jobs of Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas rest on their ability to win games in 2024, and a lot of people in that building are relying on them to do just that. So a model that’s based on immediate impact is more relevant this year than it has been in some time.

The Frelund model threw up some surprises like the Bears electing to take Joe Alt with the #1 overall pick, presumingly keeping Justin Fields as their QB. That allowed the Patriots to take Drake Maye at #3 overall, which in turn allowed the Cardinals to take Marvin Harrison Jr at #4 overall. It also had the Raiders taking Bo Nix at #13.

So after putting all the calculations in, what name did the machine spit out for the Jets? Well actually, a name we’ve seen mentioned a lot over the last month.

Now I would assume that within the model Cynthia has the Jets landing a left tackle in free agency. My hope is that the left tackle in question is Tyron Smith, but unfortunately, we don’t get to see the complete off-season plan, although it would be nice to see how the Fuage pick works within the complete model.

This model is about plugging in the ideal measurements, and traits based on NFL performance and then translating that to the prospect. So for Fuaga, it will be based on size, strength and as you can see, balance.

Here were the players who were taken ahead of Fuaga, and when you see this the selection makes perfect sense.

Joe Alt (#1), Caleb Williams (#2), Drake Maye (#3), Marvin Harrison Jr (#4), Terrion Arnold (#5), Rome Odunze (#6), Olumuyiwa Fashanu (#7), Jayden Daniels (#8), Malik Nabers (#9).

Who are you taking if you’re not taking Fuaga? Bowers? He went #15 to the Colts, and maybe Brian Thomas Jr who went #14 to the Saints. Jackson Powers-Johnson is a player I absolutely love and in this model, he goes #22 to the Eagles.

Sometimes things just perfectly align. Everyone knows the Jets need a tackle…even the computer.