QB Decision Looms Large

Edition #269

Good morning

When I started this newsletter in September 2021 my hope was that we had found our QB and that we wouldn’t need to be addressing that position for years. Here we are on edition #269 over a year later and that’s exactly what we’re doing. With the Jets’ run of luck at the QB position, you can’t tell me that Joe Namath didn’t sell the soul of all future QBs to win that Championship for the Jets.

I re-watched the game yesterday and while my cut-up tool wasn’t working so I don’t have the clips, It didn’t get better on the second viewing. I had some criticism for Mike LaFleur on initially watching the game, but he actually called a good game. Had Zach hit the easiest of layups on multiple occasions, the system would have put points on the board, that’s an unavoidable fact for anyone who’s watched the game.

On Monday Robert Saleh said that he would go away, watch the tape and then evaluate what to do moving forwards at the most important position on the football field. Having watched the game, if he really meant what he said, we’ll see a QB change announced this afternoon. If he was just lighting a fire under Zach, then we won’t. One thing is for sure, you can’t watch that game back and not think that Zach was the problem, it’s impossible.

Former Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis was named as one of the 28 modern-day semifinalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame's class of 2023. Revis was a 4× First-team All-Pro and a 7× Pro Bowler, he won a Super Bowl championship with New England but would go into the hall as a Jet.

With the loss on Sunday, the Jets have now fallen out of the playoffs for the first time in weeks. The schedule does get easier but the Jets can’t afford to drop too many more games if they hope to reach the postseason for the first time since 2010.

You know it’s bad when you’re getting roasted by Ryan Leaf, one of the biggest draft busts of all time. When a fan commented that they couldn’t believe the Jets had drafted the “Mormon Ryan Leaf”, the former QB responded “Yes you can, you’re the Jets, it’s what you do” before later adding “I’ve had a better life than Jets fans the last decade and I spent 3 of those years in prison, respectfully of course”

Someone worked out that the Jets averaged 2.77 inches per play in the second half of the game against New England. For context, the average credit card is around 3 inches long, so ya know…not a lot.

During the off-season I wrote about how I wasn’t concerned that Joe Flacco was out-performing Zach Wilson during practice sessions, maybe I should have been. It’s only when you look back at reports with hindsight that you see the warning signs. In that article back on August 5th (Edition #193) I said the following:

The impression I’ve been given all off-season from speaking to people close to the organization is that the Jets wanted to carry three quarterbacks for two reasons. The first is they like Joe Flacco and his ability to both perform on the field and more importantly mentor Zach Wilson. The second is they really rate Mike White and see him as the ideal long-term backup to Wilson in New York, mainly because of his ability to play within the system, but also because of the relationship he has with Zach.

In the end, the Jets decided to keep three QBs on the roster, four if you count Chris Streveler who’s currently on the practice squad. Having spoken to several people over the last 24 hours who are closer to the team than I am, the feeling remains the same. The Jets really rate Mike White in relation to his ability to run this offense, not dominate, but just run the offense the way that it was designed. That is a low ceiling, but the Jets have realized that it may be all they need to get the team to the playoffs, and that has now become the lone goal for the 2022 season.

The thought at the start of the season was that the Jets team development would largely move at the same trajectory as the development of Zach Wilson, but that hasn’t happened. Zach’s development has been minimal and as a result, the Jets have a championship-level defense with a bottom-tier offense. But, as Saleh said on Monday, this offense has some real talent that just needs to be unlocked, the issue is that everyone is losing faith in Zach having the ability to unlock it.

So here we are on the 23rd of November and we have a little bit of a QB controversy. It’s a Thanksgiving tradition that we’d rather relegate to the history books, but unfortunately, that’s not our choice right now. Today we’re going to look at the options the Jets have:

Start Zach Wilson

Regardless of what you hear, this is still the most likely outcome. The Jets drafted Wilson #2 overall and both the GM and HC are tied to his development. The best scenario for the Jets is for Wilson to show improvement, but outside of putting up some video game numbers, I’m not sure Wilson will be able to do enough to give us faith he’s the right man heading forward.

The positive for starting Wilson is that he’s still just 23 years old and the schedule is about to get a lot easier, should we need the schedule to get easier for Wilson to be able to move the football? Not if you want to win a Championship, but that’s a whole other conversation. Keeping faith in Wilson will maintain his confidence and he’ll never get a better opportunity to have a good game than against the Bears.

The negative in starting Wilson is that he looks cooked in terms of on-field confidence. His processing is slower than it’s ever been, his accuracy has declined and his issues are starting to frustrate the rest of the team. It doesn’t look as though he has a grasp of the offensive concepts and certainly doesn’t look to have a grasp of what the defense is trying to do. My buddy Michael Nania had a look at the accuracy issues and compared his accuracy to other 2nd-year QBs against the NFL average over the years, look at the company he’s keeping. If Zach is to put it together, he would be the outlier, not the norm.

This Sunday is also going to be a “this is what you could have had” moment for the Jets. Justin Fields struggled last year but he’s really put it together in 2022 as he’s developed with Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Fields is working with a worse supporting cast but has exploded over the last 6 games. He’s completed 62.5% of passes with 963 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 4 INTs, 640 rushing yards, and 6 passing touchdowns. It’s only natural that Wilson and Fields will be compared over their careers as the Jets bypassed the chance to take Justin for Zach.

Mike White

A couple of weeks ago Mike White was elevated up the depth chart to #2 over Joe Flacco. Robert Saleh said that it was merely to see what they had in Mike and taking over as the backup QB would enable him to take more reps in practice. Those reps could be key if the Jets do decide to turn to White against Chicago at the weekend. I don’t think anyone in the Jets organization thinks White is a franchise QB, but I know for a fact that they like his ability to run this offense.

The positive in starting White is that he knows the offense well and had success running it at points last year. It would offer a spark to have someone new in the huddle and I can guarantee that White doesn’t lack confidence. He’s a popular guy in the locker room and his short-area accuracy will allow the Jets to move the ball, even if it will eliminate the potential for some explosive plays. Let’s be honest though, I’m not sure Zach is capable of explosive plays either. White is also a better passer under pressure, when pressured last season White completed 56.1% of passes in comparison to Wilson’s 29.3%, and his turnover-worthy play rate was 3.9% in comparison to Wilson’s 5.5%.

The negative is that Buffalo game. White is a career backup for a reason. Against Buffalo he completed 54.55% of throws with 4 interceptions, it was a really bad game for White. White has also shown that he’s susceptible to bad decisions, he had 8 interceptions in four games last year, although he did complete 66.6% of his passes and throw 5 touchdowns as well. One bad game shouldn’t define anyone, we’ve heard that enough with Wilson, so why should we allow it to define Mike?

Joe Flacco

I really do think the decision comes down to White vs Wilson, but the Jets may elect to go for the old hand in Joe Flacco. Flacco has zero mobility but does know how to command the huddle and get the ball into his receiver’s hands. In his three games he threw more touchdowns than interceptions and that’s key when you’re trying to ensure you don’t lose the game for your team. Flacco attempted 155 passes through three games, that’s far too many for a Jets QB and if that was brought down I have faith he’d be able to do enough to move the Jets up and down the field.

His ability to make the right reads will also help with the receiver’s frustration. Looking back at the tape there was obvious frustration from Wilson, Mims, and Moore, mainly because they were getting open and getting ignored. Flacco tends to find you more often than not if you get open.

Chris Streveler

As much as some would love to see it, the Jets are not starting the 4th QB on their depth chart with the three above him all healthy. If the Jets believed that Chris was the 2nd best QB on this roster he’d be the backup to Wilson. Streveler has 25 passes in his NFL career and to be fair to him he’s completed 68.0% of them with 1 TD and 1 INT.

He completed 72.7% of his passes in the pre-season with 5 touchdowns and 1 interception, and by all accounts, he was pretty impressive in practice as well. I saw a bit of Chris in Canada and he does have some serious talent and if you read enough you’ll know that people saw him as a natural leader.

Based on what we’ve seen from the QB so far this season, I wouldn’t mind seeing Chris…but be wary of pre-season stats, they’ll get ya.