Positivity

Edition #221

Good morning!

We’re halfway through the week so that means it’s time to turn the corner on Sunday’s game. Mondays are for an instant reaction, Tuesdays are for crunching the stats and Wednesdays are for moving on.

This week we head to Cleveland to face the 1-0 Browns who started their season with a 26-24 win on the road against Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers.

Apparently, Baker Mayfield reportedly said of Browns: “I'm going to f–k them up” - On the list of things to say as a QB before you face Myles Garrett, that would be right at the bottom.

Anyway, we’ll crack on with the preview of the Browns tomorrow and Friday - First I want to do a couple of things. I’m going to outline 5 reasons why I’m positive ahead of Sunday and then we’re going to do a power ranking of the rookies, something we’ll update each week.

• I’m going to start this with a quote from Geno Smith following the Seahawk’s win over Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos last night: "They wrote me off, but I didn't write back, though. That's the problem - I didn't write back. Let's go!" - I’ve got a lot of love for Geno.

• Former Jet Jamal Adams suffered a “serious quad tendon injury” in the win last night and he’s expected to miss significant time. Adams was injured with 9:31 left to play in the 2nd quarter and it’s unknown how much time he’ll miss. Adams missed the final 5 games of the 2021 season with a shoulder injury.

• Robert Saleh had some Bravado for all those non-believers on Monday saying "We're all taking receipts on all the people who continually mock & say that we ain't going to do anything. "I'm taking receipts, and I'm going to be more than happy to share them with all y'all when it's all said and done." - I’m not a huge fan of bravado when you have the 3rd worst win percentage as a head coach in Jets history at the moment. I still believe in Saleh and still believe in this rebuild, but this is just noise and nonsense to me.

• Saleh did say that Zach Wilson will be back on the field on Wednesday throwing with his receivers. It won’t be team drills, it won’t involve a ton of running and certainly no contact…but it’s a step in the right direction.

• Although Saleh said "Everything is always under discussion, under review." when asked about his starting QB for week two, I wouldn’t expect to see Mike White. After talking about everything being under review he specified he had the "utmost faith in Joe…as of now Joe is our starting QB."

• After a poor showing by Braden Mann at the weekend the Jets worked out four punters on Tuesday, they should have been doing this all season. Joseph Charlton, Jake Julien, Ty Long and Michael Palardy were all brought in. Aaron Wilson later reported that the Jets had signed Ty Long and CB Jimmy Moreland to the practice squad.

Positive #1 - Run Defense

Heading into the 2022 season one of the biggest questions facing the Jets was the run defense and while I’m not ready to be a converted believer just yet, the Jets started well against a very good running team in the Baltimore Ravens.

After just one week the Jets are 3rd in the NFL having allowed just 63 yards on the ground, trailing only the Buffalo Bills (52 yards) and Sunday’s opponent the Cleveland Browns (54 yards). The 3.0 yards per average is also a top 10 number in the NFL.

This is in stark contrast to last season when the Jets allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt (24th) and 138.3 rushing yards per game (29th). It’s a small sample size with just one week of data but it gave me a reason for optimism.

The Jets defended the run as a team on Sunday and didn’t rely on one or two outstanding performances, defending as a team is more sustainable in the long run. Everyone from the corners to the lineman, linebackers, and safeties played a part. We’ll see if week one was a mirage or a new expectation.

#2 Outside Corners

The Jets started two new corners on the outside on Sunday and early indications would point to a stellar partnership brewing.

DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner were both making their debuts for the Jets and they couldn’t have performed much better.

DJ Reed Jr. - 6 targets, 0 receptions, 1 PBU, 1 INT, 90.0 coverage grade
Sauce Gardner - 3 targets, 1 reception, 8 yards, 5 YAC, 1 PBU, 72.5 coverage grade

When your outside corners combine for 1 reception allowed for 8 yards, and your defense restricts the opposing offense to 63 yards on the ground, you usually walk away with a victory. It’s extremely unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that 8-yard performance against Cleveland but they’ll win more matchups than they lose this year and that should put us in a great spot.

Micheal Carter II wasn’t quite up to that standard but he only allowed 30 yards himself, when you allow just 30 yards and that’s looked at as a disappointing day at the office, you’re doing something right in the position room. Huge props to cornerbacks coach Tony Oden and defensive backs coach Marquand Manuel for getting them ready to play at that level.

#3 Rookie Performances

Let’s just run through the performances of the rookies real quick. 4th round offensive tackle allowed 3 pressures on 62 dropbacks in his NFL debut, learning he was going to start the week of the game.

Garrett Wilson caught 4 passes for 52 yards, Micheal Clemons was one of the highest graded run defenders on the team, Jermaine Johnson got a sack and despite coughing up a fumble, Breece Hall had his moments.

Obviously, we spoke about Sauce Gardner above, but a rookie corner only allowed one reception for 8 yards is incredibly impressive. Especially as we’ve heard so much about how Bateman is primed to break out this year.

That’s a lot of positivity for a rookie class starting their first game in pro football and there is reason to believe that all of them will improve with more repetition, better familiarity with the offensive system, and what they’re being asked to do by the coaches.

Garrett Wilson wasn’t really included in the game plan in the first half, I can’t imagine that happening again.

#4 Micheal Carter

I know he dropped the TD but I was so impressed with his overall performance. The drop was one of those situations where he was too open, and had too much time. But he did catch 8 of 9 targets and that can’t be completely disregarded because he dropped 6 points…I say 6 because I don’t trust that Greg the Leg makes that extra point on Sunday.

Carter had 10 runs for 60 yards for a very healthy 60 yards, in hindsight I wish we’d have kept running him, the line was doing a better job creating lanes than pass protecting, and while I appreciate the desire to move the ball quickly, Carter was as good a bet as Flacco throughout the game. He had two rushes of 15+ yards and only D’Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb had more than that (3) and all had 15+ carries.

It’s a huge benefit for the Jets that they have a player like Carter while Breece Hall acclimatizes to the league. As long as the line can block those two will do the rest, they combined to force 4 missed tackles and there will be plenty more down the line. Carter was the hot hand and we should have fed him more, but it was a great start.

#5 Offensive Line

Put your pitchforks away and douse your flaming torches in the Hudson, stay with me for a minute.

I know what you’re thinking “How can this idiot put the offensive line as a reason for optimism” - I’ve been called much worse, but here’s my reasoning.

I don’t think that offensive line can play any worse than it did. I truly believe that in the pit of my stomach, that was the depths of despair that we will start the climb from.

Laken Tomlinson the $40 million man allowed 8 pressures, the most he allowed in any single game last year was 4. George Fant allowed a sack and 4 pressures, he allowed 1 sack and 18 pressures all of last year. Max Mitchell is a rookie who will improve and AVT is getting better every time I watch him. I have so much optimism for this offensive line, which is why I was so incredibly disappointed with the performance on Sunday, that’s not their standard.

We know that we’ve had issues with the offensive line this off-season in terms of continuity, that’s what happens when two tackles you were banking on to start go down with injuries. Mitchell and Fant only got their starting spot confirmation last week and Fant was limited in terms of participation. This week they’ll be wounded, they’ll be embarrassed, they’ll crave a bounce back and I’m banking on them getting it. (*I’m ready to eat my words next week and have people remind me of this comment*)

Jets Rookie Power Ranking

1. Sauce Gardner

2. Garrett Wilson

3. Max Mitchell

4. Jermaine Johnson

5. Micheal Clemons

6. Breece Hall

7. Jeremy Ruckert

There were two spots on this ranking that were as straightforward as you can get. Sauce Gardner at #1 and Jeremy Ruckert at #7. Sauce allowing 1 catch on 3 targets for just 8 yards is exceptional work for anyone, let alone a rookie. It’s also not often you allow 8 receiving yards and get outplayed by your cornerback partner, but Reed’s blank on 6 targets was exceptional.

Mark Andrews was targeted twice when being covered by Sauce and he failed to bring in either catch, Rashod Bateman wasn’t even targeted when Sauce was the cover man and the only reception he allowed was to Demarcus Robinson.

Jeremy Ruckert has to be at #6 because he didn’t make the active list for the game, he’s been slowed through camp due to the foot injury he sustained at the Senior Bowl. The hope he’ll be active this Sunday as they certainly could do with his run blocking if the 3rd TE is going to be largely ignored in the passing game like Cager/Uzomah were (1 target between the two of them).

I’ve got Garrett Wilson at #2 as when he was involved he looked very dangerous, 50+ receiving yards is a good start for any rookie receiver, especially one who was largely ignored in the first half (6 snaps). He didn’t bring in either contested catch, but the throws weren’t great on either. He showed some wiggle with the ball in his hands too, we need to get the ball to him in space more.

Mitchell and Johnson are basically tied third. Johnson didn’t play a lot but he did have a sack on only 10 pass rush snaps. Mitchell allowed a sack but he looked OK in his debut, want to see more in the run game but that will come.

I think Clemons can largely be lumped in with Mitchell and Johnson, he played 24 snaps and looked good against the run, although we didn’t see much in the pass-rush. Hall looked OK, some moments here and there but coughing up a costly fumble needs to move him towards the bottom of this list. Small blip and I expect him to climb soon enough.