Max Attack

Edition #226

Good morning!

Expectation is a strange thing in the NFL, we sometimes build these rookies up to be superhuman, with pro-bowl production demanded in year one. For most rookies, it really doesn’t work like that, only a chosen few reach the dizzy heights of league elite in year one.

The expectation around Max Mitchell coming into 2022 was relatively low, mainly because nobody expected him to play meaningful snaps for the Jets in his rookie year. Forgive my mixed sports analogy, but football has a way of throwing some curveballs your way.

Today we’re going to take a look at Max Mitchell in comparison to the rookie tackles who have played enough to warrant comparison.

• Robert Saleh seemed to indicate that the Jets escaped Cleveland without any injury concerns. Good news considering Quinnen, JFM, Sauce, Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson all spent time off the field for various knocks.

• DQ Thomas who was with the Jets this preseason as a UDFA out of Middle Tennessee signed with the Green Bay Packers practice squad yesterday. I liked DQ and think he could develop into a handy player.

• The Jets re-signed WR/KR Diontae Spencer to the practice squad and to make room they cut punter Ty Long who was signed last week due to Braden Mann having some issues with his back. The way Mann played on Sunday, he should have back issues in the run-up to every game.

• The Jets worked out Adam Pankey and Sam Schlueter yesterday. Offensive lineman Pankey was with the Dolphins over the past few years but played very sparingly, often lining up as an extra blocking TE. Schlueter was signed to the 49’ers as a UDFA in the 2022 draft out of Minnesota but failed to make the roster. I briefly looked at Schlueter in the run up to the draft and honestly didn't think very much of him, especially in pass protection. He does have experience on both sides of the line and can be useful in the run game.

• Pro Football Talk released their week 3 power rankings and have the Jets climbing 13 spots to #19 overall.

Like most fans, I couldn’t wait to watch the Cleveland game back, it’s far less stressful when you know the outcome, and it also allowed me to focus on a couple of chosen players. One of those players was rookie Max Mitchell, who I continue to be impressed with considering the circumstances.

The Jets never had the intention of playing Mitchell in 2022, the expectation was that he would have a redshirt year with George Fant/Mekhi Becton starting as the bookends and a veteran signing being the swing tackle. A common misconception is that the Jets only looked to sign a veteran swing tackle after the injury to Becton, but that’s far from the truth. The plan was always to sign a veteran which is why they hosted the likes of Reiley Reiff weeks before Becton went down.

Unfortunately for the Jets Becton was lost for the second season in a row and the veteran tackle Duane Brown also went down with an injury that has so far ruled him out for the first two weeks, and while the Jets hope to have him back for week five, there are no guarantees.

On very little notice the offensive line was shuffled again, George was back to left tackle, Mitchell was in at right tackle and the line as a unit had little time to prepare for a good Baltimore Ravens defense. The results in week one were less than ideal, a full week of practice led them into another tough matchup against Garrett/Clowney and the Cleveland Browns. The result? Better but with more room to improve.

Today I wanted to take a look at offensive tackles who played enough this year to warrant comparison to Mitchell. Unsurprisingly, only one player was drafted lower than Max in the 4th round, that guy being Braxton Jones who the Bears took in the 5th round. 50% of the rookie tackles who have started this year were taken in the first round.

Let’s just start by taking a look at a comparison table of all eight players.

One of the first things to note is that not all games were made equal, I’m not making excuses for Mitchell but most of these players were pegged to be starters throughout camp and had more time to form a cohesive understanding with their linemates, and Mitchell has faced two of the better defensive lines in football.

One thing I also always like to point out is that due to scheme variations and team mates variations, just because a player is doing well with his current team, doesn't mean he'd have the same success with the Jets or another team. Smith for example is built for that Dallas system but not so much for the Jets one.

Saying that I’d still say that his pass-blocking efficiency of 95.9 holds up well when you compare him to first-rounders like Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal, and Charles Cross, and even though Braxton Jones has allowed 2 fewer pressures, his 91.2 pass-blocking efficiency shows that he’s getting beaten at a much higher click than the base numbers would indicate.

Pass-blocking efficiency weighs pressures allowed on a per snap basis, with extra weighting towards sacks. The best tackles in football will be in the high 98’s at the end of the season, Tristan Wirfs led the league last year among full-time tackles (400 snaps+) with a PBE% of 98.8. To be in the top 10 you need to be around 97.9 and to be in the top 25 you need to be around 96.9.

For some comparison to Max’s current number of 95.9, Morgan Moses finished the 2021 season with a 95.9 pass-blocking efficiency rate. If Mitchell keeps to that number, this Jets fan will consider it a success in his rookie season. His current 95.9 is also higher than George Fant’s current efficiency (95.4).

I'm not for a second saying that Max is the finished product, he needs to work on his run blocking in terms of his angles and hand placement and he needs to improve his slide outside to slow down speed rushers, but what I wanted to do was show his performance in the context of his peers. Offensive tackle can be a steep learning curve between college and the pros and several of the first-round guys are struggling to a bigger extent than Max…and that's notable and comforting considering the caliber of opposition that he's faced.

Like Robert Saleh has said numerous times, he's a lot further along than anyone expected and I think that should extend to the fanbase as well. I was certainly expecting him to struggle more than he has and that's positive.

Yesterday we did a stat pack, today we’re going to look at some PFF rankings two weeks into the season. How do the Jets starters rank among their peers?

The rankings will be in the brackets next to the player name with the # of qualifiers. For example, 10/50 would mean the player ranks 10th out of 50 qualifying players.

Offense

Quarterback - Flacco (3/34)
Running Back - Carter (12/60), Hall (47/60)
Wide Receiver - Wilson (13/107), Davis (29/107), Moore (73/107), Braxton Berrios (80/107)
Tight End - Conklin (63/64)
Tackle - Fant (60/66), Mitchell (61/66)
Guard - Vera-Tucker (4/70), Tomlinson (62/70)
Center - McGovern (19/36)

Defense

Defensive End - JFM (16/103), Clemons (51/103), Lawson (55/103), Johnson (80/103), Martin (97/103).
Defensive Tackle - Williams (7/122), Rankins (41/122), Shepherd (47/122), Thomas (71/122)
Linebacker - Alexander (38/77), Mosley (50/77), Williams (71/77)
Cornerback - Reed (6/103), Carter II (34/103), Sauce (40/103)
Safety - Whitehead (69/71), Joyner (71/71)

Specials

Punter - (27/31)
Kicker - Zuerlein (28/34)
Special Teams (min 23 snaps) - Adams (11/277), Hardee (46/277) Sherwood (61/277) Davis (67/277) Echols (116/277), Harris (144/277), Johnson (206/277), Clemons (226/277), Martin (266/277)

It’s far too early to take anything from these, but it’ll be good to track as we head through the season. Martin may be looking over his shoulder if his performances don’t pick up as he’s not performing defensively or on special teams and Huff is waiting in the wings.

Let’s see what this looks like next week.