Joe Douglas Can't Draft
Is that an accurate statement?
š½Good morning Jets fans and welcome to hump day! Weāre one step closer to the weekend which means weāre one step closer to beating the Bills. If you havenāt guessed already, the mood Iāve chosen this morning is confidence. Letās get into it.
I was a little stuck on what to write today. Having a Thursday night game last week threw off the whole flow of the newsletter. Fortunately, a follower of mine gave me inspiration for todayās newsletter.
This is not to call out Andrew in the slightest, if anything I owe him thanks for the inspiration. This is something Iāve seen mentioned frequently over the last few months and it actually got me thinking (and researching). Is that an accurate statement?
Baltimore š£āŖ
Evaluating Joe Douglasās impact with the Ravens in terms of the draft results is tricky. He was never āin chargeā of the process with Baltimore.
Originally hired as a player personnel assistant, Douglas would organize college workouts and prospect visits, and while he was in charge of the teams college video library, I highly doubt he was banging the table for too many prospects during those early years. Interestingly enough, following his college graduation he actually interviewed with the Jets for a scouting role.
Between 2003-2007 he was the Northeast scout and as a former offensive lineman, he cross-checked all suggestions for offensive linemen picks. This is extremely important when you consider that the Ravens drafted Ben Grubbs (129 starts & 2 Pro Bowls) and Marshal Yanda (8 Pro Bowls & 2 All-Pro selections) in 2007.
In 2008 he was promoted, gaining responsibility for the entire East Coast. He played a significant role in scouting and evaluating Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco and 3 x Pro Bowler Ray Rice. When we say significant role, we really mean a significant role, the Ravens donāt draft either if Joe Douglas isnāt on board.
In fact Douglas is the main man responsible for even bringing Flacco to the Ravens attention. While on the road scouting Villanova, Douglas decided to take a visit to Delaware to watch Flacco in person. āAfter his first five throws, I was like wow. I knew he had the ability. I could picture him in a Ravens jersey.ā1
Then between 2009-2011 Douglas gained responsibility for the Southeast and became a key evaluator of defensive backs. In the same vein as the Flacco and Rice picks, Douglas was a key evaluator in the drafting of Lardarius Webb, a 3rd round pick that went on to play for 9 years for the Ravens, recording 480 tackles and 15 interceptions. As well as Pernell McPhee, a 5th round pick out of Mississippi State that recorded 38 sacks over an 11-year career.
So far so good. There is a lot of talent to be proud of there for Joe Douglas, but lets carry on.
In 2012, he was again promoted, this time to National Scout. Not only did he scout players up and down the country (mainly focused on the southern states), but he was also in charge of organizing and signing undrafted free agents. Considering the Ravens bagged the likes of Justin Tucker, Jameel McClain, Dannell Ellerbe, and James Hurst, he had a pretty good record here as well.
Joe Douglas built a reputation as an excellent scout with a keen eye for talent. So it came as no surprise when the Bears came knocking
"Everybody loves and respects the guy," said Ravens Senior Personnel Assistant George Kokinis before this year's draft. "You never hear a bad word about Joe even though he's under the radar. He never puts himself out there for as good a scout as he is."
Chicago Bears š»
Douglas spent just one year with the Bears as Director of College Scouting. So itās hard to gauge too much from his time there.
When thinking about the Bears we really only have one draft class to evaluate, which is the 2016 one.
Leonard Floyd may not have reached the heights that some expected, but heās 6 years into his career now and seems to be getting better and better with the Rams. He just put a 10.5 sack season together in 2020 and is currently on track to top that considering he already as 7.5 sacks on the season.
Then you look at Cody Whitehair, a pro-bowler whoās started 84 games for the Bears so far, and while the likes of Jonathan Bullard and Nick Kwiatkoski havenāt set the world alight, theyāre still in the league. As is Deon Bush. But for every guy like that, there is someone like Jordan Howard who the Bears took in the 5th round.
There are some wins in there and if you were evaluating the Bears 2016 class, youād have to say itās not bad at all, especially considering the success that Floyd is having now.
Philadelphia Eagles š¦
In 2016 Douglas was hired as Vice President of Player Personnel. When he was hired Daniel Jeremiah said that Douglas was "one of the best talent evaluators Iāve ever been around."
Douglas reported directly into Howie Roseman, so again, itās near impossible to put a definitive weighting on how many players he really banged the table for.
"He is a guy that we had targeted from the outset," Roseman said in the release. "I feel that we are very fortunate to have him lead our player personnel department. [Ravens GM] Ozzie Newsome and [Bears GM] Ryan Pace spoke very highly of him and his work. He is passionate about football, passionate about scouting and he played a vital role in the success of the Ravens over the last decade."2
The Eagles took Derek Barnett, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders and while there are some misses in there, or at least perceived misses with Andre Dillard and Rasul Douglas. Itās quite clear to me that when it came to his real scouting work in Baltimore and through his time with Chicago and Philadelphia, there were more hits than there were misses.
Sometimes I feel as though the expectation for scouts, GMās and organizations is too high. One of the toughest jobs in sports, not just football, but in all of sport, is to project college athletes to professional athletes.
Not every teamās draft class can be like the 1974 Steelers. In that draft the Steelers managed to draft not one, not two, not three, but four future hall-of-fame players in wide receiver Lynn Swann, linebacker Jack Lambert, wide receiver John Stallworth and center Mike Webster. Itās largely considered the best draft class in the history of drafts and letās be honest, there was some luck involved there.
Jets š¢āŖ
So far I would say that Joe Douglasās drafting talent is well documented and well respected. His actual scouting record with the Ravens is good to great. So the narrative around him not being able to draft must have been established while with the Jets, and letās be honest itās basically the 2020 draft.
It certainly canāt be the 2021 draft, itās far too early for that and the return looks excellent as of today. AVT is already playing at a pro bowl level, all be it inconsistently. Elijah Moore is getting better every single week, Michael Carter looks like a steal, weāre getting production out of MC2 which is something very few expected this early.
This narrative has been formed due to a draft that really shouldnāt be evaluated yet. The old saying goes that you shouldnāt evaluate a draft class until at least three years have passed. But even if we do look at that 2020 draft, we see Becton, whoās played at a high level when healthy and Becton getting rolled up on by a defensive lineman this year is nobodyās fault.
Weāre getting production out of Bryce Hall whoās quickly becoming a good to very good corner in this league. The jury is still out on Denzel Mims, and while Ashtyn Davis has been poor, heās flashed enough that you canāt judge his overall talent at this point. Perine isnāt looking too good at this point and Cameron Clark just suffered a really unlucky injury, which canāt be blamed on anyone.
Braden Mann has been a decent punter so far and we managed to find two players in Bryce Huff and Javelin Guidry as UDFAās that are giving us significant production. Overall the 2020 class for the Jets isnāt bad. If Becton and Hall develop to the ceiling we have for them, then the 2020 class will be remembered fondly for the most part.
So really, it comes down to two players. Zuniga & Morgan. Here sits the ammunition that feeds into the narrative that Joe Douglas canāt draft.
First of all Iām just going to say that all GMs miss. Every single one of them. Ted Thompson the former Packers GM, widely considered to be one of the best of all time took Marviel Underwood in the 3rd round of the 05 draft, he was out of the league a couple of years later. The great Ozzie Newsome took Sergio Kindle in the 2nd round, and while it was largely an injury that slowed him down, he didnāt do anything in the league.
Iām not going to sit here and defend the James Morgan pick. That was a horrible pick then, itās a horrible pick now and I canāt see that changing. Zuniga looks to be another poor pick, but we got a Zuniga sighting against the Bengals, and it may be a bit too soon to give up on him entirely.
What Iām trying to say is if you look at Joe Douglasās body of work as a whole, you can't say that he canāt draft and keep a straight face, you just can't. Mainly because the evidence just doesnāt exist for that statement to hold any validity. Joe Flacco and Ray Rice alone are proof that his eye for talent is good eye. Grubbs, Yanda, Becton, and AVT should give you confidence that he knows what heās talking about when it comes to drafting offensive linemen.
"Joe knows what makes good players," DeCosta said. "He learned from [Ravens general manager] Ozzie [Newsome] and other people here in this organization. He's got the instincts that a lot of guys have. But he also puts the time in. He's got the work ethic and the discipline to do extra evaluation, extra work on guys.
"He's understated, certainly. But he's a deep thinker. He's a critical thinker. I think he's strategic in his thinking. All of those qualities kind of play together to make him who he is, which is an outstanding scout."3
š News & Notes š°
The Cleveland Browns locked up offensive guard Wyatt Teller yesterday with a new 4 year deal that keeps him in Ohio through 2025. One of the better guards in the league, Teller was a player I was eying up for the Jets in free agency, alas it was not to be. There are still plenty of options on the board though.
The Jets officially placed Marcus Maye and Tyler Kroft on IR. Both expected moves by the Jets and both big losses for the team.
The Jets announced the signing of safety Elijah Riley from the Eagles practice squad. From Port Jefferson NY, Riley played his college ball at Army as is considered a strong safety who can play special teams. He had 201 tackles over 4 years in college including 6.5 sacks.
Denzel Mims got placed on the Reserve/COVID list which likely rules him out for this weekend game against Buffalo. Mims is vaccinated so he needs 2 positive tests 24 hours apart and no symptoms for 48 hours to return.
http://joantupponce.com/personality-profile-joe-douglas/
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/philadelphia-eagles/eagles-hire-joe-douglas-andy-weidl-personnel-department
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inquirer.com/philly/sports/eagles/joe-douglas-the-eagles-top-scout-has-climbed-the-ranks-to-become-one-of-the-nfls-top-talent-evaluators-20180423.html%3foutputType=amp