Jaxon Smith-Njigba at #13?

Edition #370

Good morning ☀️

Watching the Knicks take game one on Saturday night in Cleveland made me realize just how much I miss playoff football. With the Rangers starting their playoff campaign this week, I’m sure that feeling will escalate. Aaron Rodgers should equal playoff football, and I think we all need playoff football.

💪 The Jets off-season program begins today with two weeks of voluntary lifting, conditioning, meeting, and rehabilitation. A lot of players will be in attendance but Quinnen Williams is expected to stay away considering he still hasn’t received a contract extension.

☀️ Jets South got a new addition this weekend with Robby “Chosen” Anderson joining the Miami Dolphins on a one-year deal. Robby is a bit of a one-trick pony now and caught just 20 of 44 targets last year for 282 yards and 1 touchdown between the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals.

😵‍💫 CBS did a weird segment with DeAndre Hopkins over the weekend where they asked him to use body language to portray how he’d feel about getting traded to certain destinations. You can watch it HERE, but needless to say, it doesn’t look as though he’d welcome a trade to New York anytime soon. He seemed to favor the Bills and Chiefs.

💰 Odell Beckham Jr chose the Ravens over a “very competitive” offer from another team with Jeremy Fowler saying: “That’s something the Jets couldn’t quite get to, Maybe if there was more time, they would’ve gotten close enough to get it done. I do believe Beckham was intrigued about playing with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers was intrigued about playing with Beckham. It just didn’t come together, but it was very close.”

👏 The Jets had the 2nd-highest attendance average in 2022 with an average of 78,009 fans over their eight home games. Only the Dallas Cowboys (93,465) had higher attendance. Considering we have the longest playoff drought in the NFL, that’s pretty incredible. Hats off to all the fans who turn up every single week.

💰 ESPN's Rich Cimini revealed on Saturday that Williams is likely looking for a contract that would pay him somewhere between $23 and $25 million per year. Based on Jeffery Simmons' contract that paid him $23.5 million per year, that’s a pretty good guess and logical suggestion.

🔴⚪ When I’m asked about the #13 pick in the draft, my mind immediately goes to the positions of need. Offensive tackle with Paris Johnson, Darnell Wright, Pete Skoronski, and Broderick Jones. Defensive tackle with Jalen Carter and Calijah Kancey and even defensive end/linebacker Nolan Smith.

But what if the Jets threw a curveball? What if they decided that the players available at #13 weren’t value picks, and despite their best efforts, they were unable to trade down? Do you take a guy at #13 who you have rated as a bottom-of-the-first-round prospect? Just because he fits a position of need. Or do you take the best player available?

That’s where Jaxson Smith-Njigba comes in. The same player who forced Ohio State to move Garrett Wilson outside in 2021 because he was so damn good in the slot. Back in 2020, Wilson spent 73.3% of all snaps in the slot, in 2021 that number dropped to 17.1%. Yes, part of that was down to Wilson just performing on the outside, but it was mainly due to OSU wanting JSN on the field and in the slot as much as possible.

A hamstring injury limited JSN to just three games this year, but back in 2021, he caught 95 passes for 1606 yards and 9 touchdowns. If you think that’s all down to defenses having to defend Wilson and Olave on the outside, think again. In the Rose Bowl against Utah with Olave and Wilson sitting out, JSN caught 15 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns. They knew the ball was going to him, and they still couldn’t defend him.

There’s a big difference between beating Utah and beating the San Francisco 49ers, but JSN showed that day that he is a phenomenal talent. Now he’s not perfect, the drawbacks with him are evident, he’s likely a slot-only guy in the NFL. He’s not overly explosive and his long speed is average at best. Nearly all of his college reproduction came in one season and he rounds off his routes far too often.

But. There is something about him.

I can’t put my finger on it. He’s the only receiver I’ve given a first-round grade to so far, and that’s pretty much based on one year of production.

I would say he plays faster than he times, and that’s not that uncommon for receivers. He’s physical in the middle of the field, he’s got soft hands and he just knows how to win in the short to intermediate range. The name we frequently hear as an NFL comparison is Jarvis Landry and while some may scoff at that, Landry has 6 NFL seasons with 800+ yards including three 1000+ yard seasons. He’s a talented player, and JSN is better.

Over the course of his career at OSU he’s had 133 targets, and he has just 6 drops…which equals a drop percentage of 5.2%. During this breakout 2021 season, he caught 9/10 contested catches for a contested catch rate of 90%, and for his career, it’s at 71.4%, which is still spectacular. That speaks to someone with exceptional hands and a fearless attitude to going over the middle.

He may not have the speed to really break it open, but he had 790 yards after the catch in 2021, and 19 missed tackles forced. He’s difficult to brink down in the open field with a thick lower half and he catches pretty much everything thrown his way, he caught 84.8% of all targets in 2021, which is a very nice number.

We can supply all the numbers needed, but what makes JSN so special can’t be quantified on a spreadsheet. He just has a feel for the position, technical ability, and an innate understanding of defensive weaknesses. He changes direction well and catches balls within the same motion. He breaks off his routes when he needs to, and always works back to the quarterback.

He possesses outstanding body control, and he’s one of the better ball trackers I’ve seen in recent memory. He can make adjustments when needed and while this wouldn’t be a TD in the NFL, it’s one hell of a play.

Wide receiver isn’t a position of need for the Jets in the same way the tackle positions are, but I’d argue we’re far from set at the position. The idea of Wilson and Lazard on the outside, JSN in the slot and Breece Hall coming out of the backfield is extremely appealing to me. That’s a unit that can grow and dominate together.

The more I watch Jaxon, the more I want him on this team and I imagine the move would go over well with current Jets star Garrett Wilson who had this to say about his former teammate:

“Jaxon is a cold-blooded man, man,” Wilson said, not long after he completed his outstanding rookie year with the Jets. “That boy is, we call him ‘The Natural.’ He’s got hands, he’s got feet that will make you miss. He’ll do the laundry for you. Jaxon’s cold, man. I’m confident that wherever he goes, he’s going to make a big impact early.”