Is Lukas Van Ness an option for the Jets?

Edition #375

Good morning! ☀️

Welcome to draft week! One of the more exciting weeks on the NFL calendar, especially for a team who have the longest playoff drought in North American sports.

Unless the Aaron Rodgers trade drops between now and Thursday night, we’re going to be focusing on the draft and the draft alone.

Monday newsletters are always free and available, but if you want to subscribe to receive all the posts this week and then the player breakdowns of our drafted players next week, hit that subscribe button.

🔵⚪ Here's what draft analyst Dane Brugler had to say about the Jets and Skoronski over the weekend: “The Jets do like [Peter Skoronski] as a tackle. Some teams have him on the board as a guard. I know the Jets have him on the board as a tackle…the versatility that Skoronski offers, I think that’s a big selling point for the Jets at 13.”

🔴⚪ Tony Pauline commented that the Jets are targeting JSN at #13 overall, which leads me to believe they have no interest in him 😂 We did post about the OSU receiver last week, and to me it does make some sense, although I'm still in favor of taking the best OT. To be fair to Pauline, all he said was that JSN was in the conversation if the OTs were off the board, and I mean, of course he's in that conversation.

👑 Sauce is always good for a quote: “I’m never the type to limit myself to someone else’s success,” Gardner told the Kelce brothers on their podcast, New Heights. “Same with me, when it’s somebody and I’m that dude. Don’t be like me, be better than me, so, you know, I admire [Revis], I admire his game. I was looking forward to meeting him. He was a great corner and everything, but I wanna be better than him. You know what I mean?”

🧀 Ian Rapoport was on the airwaves this weekend to confirm that the Jets and Packers had picked up negotiations and while nothing is imminent, the hope is that it gets done this week. It was always likely to get done this week, so whether this is source based or just an educated guess, we could be in the home stretch.

📸 We mentioned a while ago that the Jets were hosting their own draft party this week at Metlife with a chance to visit the locker room, live music, and player appearances. Those players have now been announced, so if you’re heading to the party, you’ll get the chance to meet WR Allen Lazard, S Ashtyn Davis, CB Brandin Echols, S Chuck Clark, OL Eric Smith, LB Jamien Sherwood, TE Jeremy Ruckert, OL Laken Tomlinson, OL Max Mitchell, LB Quincy Williams and, DL Tanzel Smart.

🏈 New old punter Thomas Morstead credited the Jet’s aggressive approach as the reason he signed back in NY, with Joe Douglas guaranteeing his whole contract which is unusual for Joe, showing the faith he has in the veteran punter. “I think No. 1, it wasn’t so much about how much I was getting paid, I mean I signed the veteran salary benefit contract. [That] is below my market, but they guaranteed the whole thing. They basically said we want you back and we’re committing to you for this season. That is a tremendous offer [and] there’s probably not too many guys that are on the veteran salary benefit that are getting the whole thing guaranteed”

We had a look at Nolan Smith last week, a player who doesn’t necessarily fit the Jets draft needs narrative. I wanted to start this week off with another player in a similar mold.

It’s widely accepted that the Jet’s first-round selection will be spent on either an offensive tackle or a defensive tackle, with a slim chance it may get spent on the best WR in the draft if he were to fall.

Few expect the Jets to look at the Edge players because the Jets are actually loaded on the edge. You have JFM and Carl Lawson slated to be your starters with Bryce Huff and Jermaine Johnson backing up. You then have Michael Clemons and Bradlee Anae behind them, and in a pinch, you could put Jefferson out there as well.

So on the surface, the Jets have 6-7 players already on the roster who can play the edge and just Williams, Thomas, and Jefferson inside. Obviously, you can count guys like Tanzel Smart and Isaiah Mack, but I’m not sure the Jets will be wanting to rely on them to play meaningful snaps.

We spent a large chunk of last off-season talking about JFM inside, but the vast majority of his snaps came either lined up over tackle or outside the tackle, just 29 of 643 came inside of that. It’s clear that the Jets see him as an edge player and largely an edge player alone.

But we also know that Joe Douglas prioritizes the lines above all else, and Robert Saleh’s defense is predicated on the defensive line generating pressure. We also know that Saleh and Ulbrich work a heavy rotation system. Finally, we also know that Carl Lawson is coming to the end of his contract and Bryce Huff will be looking for a big contract extension soon, which could lead the Jets to look at this as a move for the future.

This brings me to Lukas Van Ness, the Iowa Edge who’s slated to go in the first round, the interesting thing about Van Ness is that he’s spent considerable time inside as a 3-technique before moving outside in 2022. The results were impressive in both positions. Inside in 2021, he had 7 sacks and 8.5 tackles for a loss, outside in 2022 (he still had 174 snaps inside of tackle) he had 6.5 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss, who loves versatility? Saleh loves versatility.

Saleh also loves toughness, competitiveness, and physicality, Van Ness brings that in abundance. He grew up playing ice hockey in Illinois, and he’s often credited that with his competitiveness. He’s a long and strong competitor whose motor is red-hot 24/7.

His testing was a touch strange in the pre-draft process. His RAS came out at 9.39 which is an elite number, but look at his card.

Before the entire testing process, if you’d have asked me to explain Van Ness’s game in a paragraph, this is how I’d put it:

“Long and strong athlete who’s explosive off the snap, sturdy against the run, physical in every aspect, and extremely competitive. Pass-rush moves are a bit one-dimensional, doesn’t always seem to have a pass-rush plan, but I put that down to his bull being so dominant and not needing to diversify. Can stack and shed and locate the ball against the run, high floor, high ceiling prospect who can start inside or out. ”.

What I wouldn’t expect to see in his test results are a low bench and a low explosion. That to me just doesn’t translate to what’s happening on the field, so when that happens I often go back and check again, and after doing that over the weekend, I’m sticking to my original assessment.

Here is the advanced data set from the PFF draft guide for Van Ness. As you can see they have him down as the 3rd best edge defender in the draft behind Will Anderson Jr at Alabama and Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson, which most seem to agree with.

The interesting point on Van Ness is that he was never actually a starter at Iowa, but that’s down to Iowa and how they reward senior players. He led the team in tackles for a loss and sacks, but he only ever played 50+ snaps once in his career. He’s still not even turned 22, which means he’s almost the perfect player to come into a defensive rotation while he improves the intricacies of the game. His teammates named him “Hercules” because of his impressive strength, and his frame could stand to add more mass, which makes him an intriguing option as a 3 technique in a 4-3 front, in fact, I think with time he could handle anything from a 3 through to a 9 technique, you have to love the options that presents down the road.

I just wanted to share a couple of clips that highlight his game. First, against the pass where his initial power rocks the guard, who then sets his foot to stop the momentum, LVN then pulls to get free and registers the sack. A perfect push/pull move.

Then a play here against the run, good base at the point of contact, active hands, stack, shed, tackle. I also like the finish on the tackle as well, as sometimes players spin and fail to complete it to the ground, which drives me mad.

The improvement that Van Ness made from year one in 2021 to year two in 2022 is pretty striking. He redshirted his freshman year in 2020, but that enabled him to add weight and strength to his frame. Van Ness actually had 16 fewer pass-rush snaps in 2022 in comparison to 2021, but he ended up with 18 more pressures (46 vs 28).

If Van Ness makes it to the Jets at #13, he could be a dark horse for selection. At the end of the day I won’t think he makes it to the 13th overall pick with Philadelphia a prime landing spot at #10.

Moving on with our Jets draft history, today we’re looking at pick #112.

2010 - Joe McKnight (RB)
1990 - Tony Savage (NT)

The Jets don’t have a lot of history with the #112 pick. I have really fond memories of Joe McKnight who tragically lost his life in a road rage shooting in Louisiana in 2016. I had the privaledge of speaking with Joe on more than one occasion and he was such a great guy. He was only with the Jets for three years, but he was a good kick returner in 2011.

Savage never played for the Jets, he actually only appeared in 5 career games in the NFL. Just for fun I went and had a look at his RAS score, and maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised: