I know it’s a little long but this is the second week in a row that Peter King has started his weekly column about the uncertainty of this draft.
Which makes it look as far as the Jets are concerned who will be available at 13 or will the Jets stay at 13.
From King
“I do this for a living, and my mock draft will be no more accurate than yours. We all think that we know, but we really don’t.”
–One NFL GM in a text to me last week.
I would disagree with this executive. I don’t think I know. Actually, I know I don’t know.
Let me tell you about a GM with a pick in the top 10 for the second straight year. “Last year, I was 90 percent sure of our pick before the draft,” he said. “This year, I’m 25 percent sure.”
There are a couple of reasons this draft is so in flux. Nine of the top 11 teams have a prime football person—coach or GM—in the seat of power for either the first or second year. So there’s not much of a book on many teams. Teams picking one through four have new head coaches, while GMs picking at major pivot points at three (Monti Ossenfort, Arizona) and 11 (Ran Carthon, Tennessee) are running their first drafts.
Then there’s the quarterback mystery. A month ago, C.J. Stroud was the odds-on favorite to be the first pick in the draft. Today, it’s no lock he goes in the top seven, which seems (and is) insane. Will Levis was an afterthought in many draft rooms as this month dawned; now he might be the fourth overall pick. Eleven years after an accomplished 5-10 3/4 quarterback, Russell Wilson, was picked 75th overall, an accomplished quarterback half-an-inch shorter, Bryce Young, is projected to go first overall.
I can never tell anymore if the cacophony of voices around a dominant story is real, or if the cacophony constitutes an echo chamber. So many people “cover” the draft, and there is so much information boomeranging around the internet and in NFL offices where info is king. Twice over the weekend, I asked coaches who said they “heard” Stroud was dropping: Without naming names, could you be specific? Because sometimes they might be hearing from coaches or personnel people employed by the teams involved in scouting the quarterbacks, which is valuable. Sometimes they might be hearing from people who are not involved in the decision-making. Or from people who saw Bob McGinn of Tyler Dunne’s “Go Long” Substack report that Stroud bombed the S2 cognitive test increasingly trusted by teams as a key part of their scouting regimen. The S2 test measures how fast a player can process information and make decisions; Bryce Young, McGinn reported, got the best score of quarterbacks at 98 on a 100-point scale. Stroud, per McGinn, got an 18.
I don’t think anything should be ignored. The S2 test is a key piece of a 500-piece jigsaw puzzle. But what about the corner pieces of the puzzle for Stroud, the ones that really matter? Nov. 20, 2021, Columbus: 32-of-35 passing, 432 yards, six TDs in a win over Michigan State. Oct. 29, 2022, State College: 26-of-33 passing for 354 yards in a win over Penn State. And his last, and biggest, game as a collegian, the college football playoff semifinal four months ago against mighty Georgia: 23-of-34, 348 yards, four TDs, zero picks, 41 points engineered.
How do you unsee what Stroud did in that game? How do you minimize seeing Stroud evade two Georgia rushers in the pocket, move to his right with his eyes fixed downfield, and with an onrushing linebacker in his face, three-quarters zing a touchdown strike 29 yards in the air to a diving Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Nothing against Will Levis, who is a fine prospect. But he was at Penn State for three years and couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford, who Dane Brugler rates as a priority free agent in this class and the fifth-best draft-eligible QB in the Big Ten. He played well at Kentucky in two seasons, but threw twice as many interceptions in two years (25) as Stroud did in his last two years (12)
Excellent write up of Lukas. Jets in desperate need of CAP space, cutting / trading Lawson is an easy and logical solution to remedy that problem, opening the door for Van Ness. All of these First Round Tackles have worts, and could have limited upside. Van Ness has exciting upside.
Resuming talks with Green Bay, do the fundamental offers change ? I think the the window dressing could change. Jets send 43 & Mims, and a 2024 third, Packers kick in a 2023 seventh, and a 2024 sixth. Packers fail miserably in face saving maneuver.
Thanks for the info on Van Ness. He sounds like a very good prospect, but I think that I still prefer that the Jets take an OT at #13 (or wherever they pick in the 1st round).
Do you know what happened with Ben Jones? Did he retire? Sign with someone else? MCGovern is ok, but it's disappointing. I was really hoping for Jones and taking Schmitz if he was there in the 2nd. Particularly with the AR trade going through and our moving down 2 spots and losing pick #42, it's going to be interesting to see what happens. A tackle they like should still be there at #15. If not, then they can perhaps get the Van Ness kid or perhaps even trade down further in the 1st round, take Mazi Smith and then focus on getting an OT at pick #43. If they don't feel that any of the OTs are worthy of being taken that high in the 2nd, then we'd all better pray that both Brown and Becton stay healthy and have dominant years.
Jones is a better player than McGovern, but he had multiple concussions last year, still a FA. Has the same problem as McGovern , the Center market is unexpectedly soft.
I had a sneaking suspicion that McGovern would be back before the draft, I just can't explain why I thought that, lol. It does help to solidify the middle of the o-line, if it turns out to be him, Tomlinson and AVT. I still think they should take a good developmental center in the draft if there is one available when they pick in later rounds. I'm not too familiar with the second-round OT's, are there any you feel are truly worthwhile ?
The contract will tell us a lot, but the market for Centers was very weak, guys like Bradbury took less than projected. McGovern held out a long time, no team came calling. My guess it will be a one year deal for 6, that’s a 4 million dollar pay cut . Like McGovern over Jones because of the concussion issue..It’s almost a lock that the Jets take an OT at 13, but a WR ( JSN ) could keep Rodgers here another year, Van Ness or Wilson at edge is about upside and value, do you draft Carte if he falls ? My second round tackles are Matthew Bergeron Syracuse, & Jaelyn Duncan out of Maryland, both good fits, but not plug & play
You make a good point about Carter, but historically the jets have shied away from players with character issues, Warren Sapp anyone ! I'm not really qualified to make that choice obviously, but do you think JD and Saleh would take the risk and draft him at # 13 ? And do you really think Bergeron and Duncan are second-round talents, I've seen them ranked pretty low in relation to the top-rankers. And as far as McGovern is concerned, there are worse centers available out there. I think the key is Tomlinson. If he can rebound from last year's poor effort, the center of the O-line will be very solid.
Wouldn’t touch Carter, very risky. Sticking with my guys, but agree they maybe slate second early third round value. Jets will be very unpredictable in this draft
I agree. As talented as he is, he sounds like he has some very questionable character issues, and that's the last thing the Jets need to deal with. I'm sure that the Jets will have completely checked him out, so if he were to drop to #15 and the Jets take him, I won't be upset, but I hope that he doesn't wind up being a Jet. I don't like the fact that he showed up at the Combine overweight and out of shape.
Another great column David, and the information about Lukas Van Ness is very interesting. If the prime OT's are gone, I can see JD and Saleh pushing to get him. He seems like a disrupter, though not in the class of the Bosa's. I see him as similar to the two Bengal DE's, I just can't remember their names, and Aiden Hutchinson. Correct me if I'm incorrect on the matter, lol. How is everything else going ?
For some reason i am just not into the draft this year. They are going to take a O-Lineman at 13 or 15 depending on Rogers (if that happens this week). Ok so be it they take another lineman. I'll be watching Game 5 of the Rangers and can read about it here the next day LOL
I know it’s a little long but this is the second week in a row that Peter King has started his weekly column about the uncertainty of this draft.
Which makes it look as far as the Jets are concerned who will be available at 13 or will the Jets stay at 13.
From King
“I do this for a living, and my mock draft will be no more accurate than yours. We all think that we know, but we really don’t.”
–One NFL GM in a text to me last week.
I would disagree with this executive. I don’t think I know. Actually, I know I don’t know.
Let me tell you about a GM with a pick in the top 10 for the second straight year. “Last year, I was 90 percent sure of our pick before the draft,” he said. “This year, I’m 25 percent sure.”
There are a couple of reasons this draft is so in flux. Nine of the top 11 teams have a prime football person—coach or GM—in the seat of power for either the first or second year. So there’s not much of a book on many teams. Teams picking one through four have new head coaches, while GMs picking at major pivot points at three (Monti Ossenfort, Arizona) and 11 (Ran Carthon, Tennessee) are running their first drafts.
Then there’s the quarterback mystery. A month ago, C.J. Stroud was the odds-on favorite to be the first pick in the draft. Today, it’s no lock he goes in the top seven, which seems (and is) insane. Will Levis was an afterthought in many draft rooms as this month dawned; now he might be the fourth overall pick. Eleven years after an accomplished 5-10 3/4 quarterback, Russell Wilson, was picked 75th overall, an accomplished quarterback half-an-inch shorter, Bryce Young, is projected to go first overall.
I can never tell anymore if the cacophony of voices around a dominant story is real, or if the cacophony constitutes an echo chamber. So many people “cover” the draft, and there is so much information boomeranging around the internet and in NFL offices where info is king. Twice over the weekend, I asked coaches who said they “heard” Stroud was dropping: Without naming names, could you be specific? Because sometimes they might be hearing from coaches or personnel people employed by the teams involved in scouting the quarterbacks, which is valuable. Sometimes they might be hearing from people who are not involved in the decision-making. Or from people who saw Bob McGinn of Tyler Dunne’s “Go Long” Substack report that Stroud bombed the S2 cognitive test increasingly trusted by teams as a key part of their scouting regimen. The S2 test measures how fast a player can process information and make decisions; Bryce Young, McGinn reported, got the best score of quarterbacks at 98 on a 100-point scale. Stroud, per McGinn, got an 18.
I don’t think anything should be ignored. The S2 test is a key piece of a 500-piece jigsaw puzzle. But what about the corner pieces of the puzzle for Stroud, the ones that really matter? Nov. 20, 2021, Columbus: 32-of-35 passing, 432 yards, six TDs in a win over Michigan State. Oct. 29, 2022, State College: 26-of-33 passing for 354 yards in a win over Penn State. And his last, and biggest, game as a collegian, the college football playoff semifinal four months ago against mighty Georgia: 23-of-34, 348 yards, four TDs, zero picks, 41 points engineered.
How do you unsee what Stroud did in that game? How do you minimize seeing Stroud evade two Georgia rushers in the pocket, move to his right with his eyes fixed downfield, and with an onrushing linebacker in his face, three-quarters zing a touchdown strike 29 yards in the air to a diving Marvin Harrison Jr.?
Nothing against Will Levis, who is a fine prospect. But he was at Penn State for three years and couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford, who Dane Brugler rates as a priority free agent in this class and the fifth-best draft-eligible QB in the Big Ten. He played well at Kentucky in two seasons, but threw twice as many interceptions in two years (25) as Stroud did in his last two years (12)
Kings draft , Herndon at 12 ?
Great post! Thanks for the additional info.
Excellent write up of Lukas. Jets in desperate need of CAP space, cutting / trading Lawson is an easy and logical solution to remedy that problem, opening the door for Van Ness. All of these First Round Tackles have worts, and could have limited upside. Van Ness has exciting upside.
Resuming talks with Green Bay, do the fundamental offers change ? I think the the window dressing could change. Jets send 43 & Mims, and a 2024 third, Packers kick in a 2023 seventh, and a 2024 sixth. Packers fail miserably in face saving maneuver.
Thanks for the info on Van Ness. He sounds like a very good prospect, but I think that I still prefer that the Jets take an OT at #13 (or wherever they pick in the 1st round).
McGovern re-signed today. LVN probability increases, how do you feel about second round OT’s ?
Do you know what happened with Ben Jones? Did he retire? Sign with someone else? MCGovern is ok, but it's disappointing. I was really hoping for Jones and taking Schmitz if he was there in the 2nd. Particularly with the AR trade going through and our moving down 2 spots and losing pick #42, it's going to be interesting to see what happens. A tackle they like should still be there at #15. If not, then they can perhaps get the Van Ness kid or perhaps even trade down further in the 1st round, take Mazi Smith and then focus on getting an OT at pick #43. If they don't feel that any of the OTs are worthy of being taken that high in the 2nd, then we'd all better pray that both Brown and Becton stay healthy and have dominant years.
Jones is a better player than McGovern, but he had multiple concussions last year, still a FA. Has the same problem as McGovern , the Center market is unexpectedly soft.
I had a sneaking suspicion that McGovern would be back before the draft, I just can't explain why I thought that, lol. It does help to solidify the middle of the o-line, if it turns out to be him, Tomlinson and AVT. I still think they should take a good developmental center in the draft if there is one available when they pick in later rounds. I'm not too familiar with the second-round OT's, are there any you feel are truly worthwhile ?
The contract will tell us a lot, but the market for Centers was very weak, guys like Bradbury took less than projected. McGovern held out a long time, no team came calling. My guess it will be a one year deal for 6, that’s a 4 million dollar pay cut . Like McGovern over Jones because of the concussion issue..It’s almost a lock that the Jets take an OT at 13, but a WR ( JSN ) could keep Rodgers here another year, Van Ness or Wilson at edge is about upside and value, do you draft Carte if he falls ? My second round tackles are Matthew Bergeron Syracuse, & Jaelyn Duncan out of Maryland, both good fits, but not plug & play
You make a good point about Carter, but historically the jets have shied away from players with character issues, Warren Sapp anyone ! I'm not really qualified to make that choice obviously, but do you think JD and Saleh would take the risk and draft him at # 13 ? And do you really think Bergeron and Duncan are second-round talents, I've seen them ranked pretty low in relation to the top-rankers. And as far as McGovern is concerned, there are worse centers available out there. I think the key is Tomlinson. If he can rebound from last year's poor effort, the center of the O-line will be very solid.
Wouldn’t touch Carter, very risky. Sticking with my guys, but agree they maybe slate second early third round value. Jets will be very unpredictable in this draft
I agree. As talented as he is, he sounds like he has some very questionable character issues, and that's the last thing the Jets need to deal with. I'm sure that the Jets will have completely checked him out, so if he were to drop to #15 and the Jets take him, I won't be upset, but I hope that he doesn't wind up being a Jet. I don't like the fact that he showed up at the Combine overweight and out of shape.
Also had a bad Pro Day
Makes sense.
Another great column David, and the information about Lukas Van Ness is very interesting. If the prime OT's are gone, I can see JD and Saleh pushing to get him. He seems like a disrupter, though not in the class of the Bosa's. I see him as similar to the two Bengal DE's, I just can't remember their names, and Aiden Hutchinson. Correct me if I'm incorrect on the matter, lol. How is everything else going ?
For some reason i am just not into the draft this year. They are going to take a O-Lineman at 13 or 15 depending on Rogers (if that happens this week). Ok so be it they take another lineman. I'll be watching Game 5 of the Rangers and can read about it here the next day LOL