Game Preview: Chicago Bears

Edition #271

Good morning!

I hope everyone is suitably stuffed after their Thanksgiving meals yesterday. We may not celebrate the holiday in the UK, but I don’t need an excuse to cook a roast dinner, have a few beers and watch some football…which is exactly what I did.

It’s been a strange 24 hours in Jets land with the arguments raging on as to whether benching Zach Wilson was the right move or not. Industry experts can’t agree so how are fans supposed to?

As mentioned in yesterday’s column, I agreed with the decision because I care about Zach and I care about the Jets. Zach needs time to reset, he’s completely out of whack with his mechanics and throwing him out there to face NFL defences wasn’t going to fix it.

Today it’s all about the Bears though and the Jets’ chance to move back to 3 games over .500 and maintain their playoff aspirations. Detroit was unable to take down the Bills yesterday, although they came close. But, Minnesota did beat Mac Jones and the Patriots.

Here’s the injury rundown for both the Jets and Bears:

Jets - Sheldon Rankins (DNP), Kenny Yeboah (DNP), Duane Brown (LP), Sauce Gardner (LP), Nate Herbig (LP), Quincy Williams (LP), Corey Davis (FP)

Rankins and Yeboah look likely to miss the game but there doesn’t seem to be a level of concern with anyone else. You’d love to see all the limited participants have a full day today but it would be a surprise at this point to see any of them miss the game.

Bears - Jacquan Brisker (DNP), Kyler Gordon (DNP), Sterling Weatherford (DNP), Justin Fields (LP), Dane Cruikshank (FP), Teven Jenkins (FP).

Chicago has a bit of a concussion issue this week because as of Thursday night, Brisker, Gordon and Weatherford all remained in the concussion protocol, and there is a danger all miss the game. Justin Fields is dealing with a “separated left shoulder with partially torn ligaments”, but signs indicate he’ll play.

Goal #1 - Stop Justin Fields

Anyone who’s read TJW will know I’m a Justin Fields fan, but this weekend I need him to fail miserably. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has done a fine job developing a game plan to suit the personnel of the Bears and the skillset of Fields and as a result, they’ve seen the 2nd year QB take strides as both a passer and offensive weapon.

Over the last five games, Fields has been one of the most productive QBs in football completing 64.6% of his passes for 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s also run for 552 total yards which equate to just over 110 yards per game, as well as 6 touchdowns. Fields is a much better pocket passer than most give him credit for, but as a defence that’s where you want to keep him. You absolutely need to make him beat you as a passer rather than with his legs, and as such you need to put a spy on him at all times.

The Jets have more speed on defense this year and I personally would put Quincy Williams on Fields because he’s the only linebacker that we have who’s fast enough to stick with the Bears QB. You can ensure your defensive ends maintain outside contain while spying the middle, but if he gets to the edge he can turn on the jets.

Goal #2 - Quick, Easy Completions

Interestingly when I was researching this piece today I came across a comment from cornerback Lamar Jackson, previously of the Jets and now on the Bears. He was speaking about Mike White stepping in last year against the Bengals:

“He went crazy,” said Bears cornerback Lamar Jackson, who was on the Jets’ practice squad last year. “It gave us a lift and almost created a rift in the locker room. Because the second overall pick is in the locker room [Wilson], and your backup throws for 400 yards, and now we’re thinking, ‘Something’s gotta happen.’

“I’m confident he’ll step into that role and play the best he can play. But it’s still up to us to defeat them. It’s going to be us vs. them. But I’ve got respect for Mike.”

I went back and watched that game and the plan was simple. Quick read, quick accurate passes and moves the chains. When Mike was doing that the Bengals couldn’t get close to him and believe he completed his first 10 or 11 passes in the game. Mike doesn’t need to do anything special, his accuracy is his superpower so just use that and keep things moving.

Jackson firmly believes the locker room will be in his corner and I found these comments really interesting:

“I like Zach Wilson,’’ Jackson said, ‘‘but I can see comments about how he carries himself, a sense of arrogance. I could see how it could rub people the wrong way. When he’s good, he’s good, and when he’s bad, he’s bad. When you’re not the most likable guy, of course when things are bad, everybody’s going to have a problem with you.” 

“I can definitely tell you the locker room, they’re behind Mike White,” Jackson said. “He’s one of those guys that’s very likable. I know everybody’s going to be trying to buy in and help him succeed just [because of] the type of guy he is. I know he has good respect over there.

“Guys are going to help Mike White make it happen. They kind of know the situation. There ain’t no telling how they really feel about Zach. A guy steps in that’s been there . . . I’m sure they’re all going to play hard for him.” 

Goal #3 - Protect Mike

White won’t get a better opportunity than playing the Bears at home, especially as the Bears may be without both Brisker and Gordon. The key will be to protect White in the pocket, we’re not going to see him stretch the Chicago defence with his legs and Bears head coach alluded to that during this press conference:

“[Wilson] has the ability to escape — not to say Mike doesn’t,” Bears coach Matt Eberflus said. “[Wilson] can move. He’s an athlete. He can do the keepers, a lot of things on the edge of the defense, whereas Mike is really good at passing. He’s more of a pocket guy.” 

The Bears only have 15 sacks all season, which is ranked 31/32 in the league and they traded away two of their best defensive players earlier this season. Their pressure percentage of 20.2% ranks in the bottom third of the league as well, and they blitz just 15.7% of the time which is only slightly higher than the 15.2% of the Jets, so we know that’s not a lot.

Max Mitchell is back in the building and George Fant’s practice window has been opened, so it’ll be interesting to see the combination on Sunday. My instinct is that this week comes too soon for Fant and he’ll likely make a return next weekend, but if Mitchell is 100% healthy I’d like and expect to see him back in at RT in place of Cedric Ogbuehi.

Goal #4 - Stay dedicated to the run

If there is one criticism I have of Mike LaFleur recently, it’s the speed at which he moves away from the run game. Losing Breece Hall destroyed our confidence in the run game, but we have two very good players in James Robinson and Michael Carter. If we can get the run game going early, that will open up space in the intermediate game where Mike White feasts, linebackers will start to cheat down and that’ll open up the potential for big gains.

Chicago has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Over the course of this season they have allowed on average 142.6 yards per game, which is 29th in the league, and when on the road that number jumps to 166.8 yards, which is 31st in the league. If you stay patient and you continue to chip away, holes will open up for you against this Bears front.

The Bears have 6 different players who have at least 5 missed tackles on their record and four who have at least 10 (Brisker, Morrow, Jackson and Gordon). James Robinson and Michael Carter can both break tackles and generate extra yardage. We’ve always been told that this zone running scheme will get blown up more than others and generate more explosive plays than others, well it’ll only work if you stick with it.

Goal #5 - Pressure Generation

The Bear’s front four may not be able to generate pressure in the passing game, but the Jets certainly can. New York has generated 32 sacks this year which is good for the 6th best mark in football and their pressure percentage is up at 24.9%, 4th in the league. The Jets’ ability to generate pressure without blitzing is the key to this defense, as it allows them to drop more players into coverage, and on Sunday will allow them to spy the QB.

For all the good that Justin Fields has done this year, there is still one inescapable truth, he holds onto the ball too long. Of all the full-time QBs this year, nobody holds the ball longer than the 3.44 seconds that Justin Fields does. Some of that is his ability to escape and move around behind the line, some of it is indecision. The key for the Jets is to bring him down when you get your hands on him, he’s slippery and escapes pressure well but the Jets will get shots at him.

I don’t like saying this as every time I do, it doesn’t happen. But, Carl Lawson should be on for a good day considering he’s going against Braxton Jones at left tackle who’s allowed 30 pressures and 5 sacks this season. Right tackle Riley Reiff is coming off a tough game against Atlanta where he allowed 4 pressures and a sack, and he’ll need to contend with JFM, Huff and Johnson on Sunday.