Final 53 Roster Projection

Edition #465

Good morning!

You’ve probably read many of these over the last 24 hours, but I’m stubborn with my routine. I promised a final 53-man roster and that’s what we’re doing today.

The final pre-season game came and went without major incident. Rodgers escaped unscathed and he threw a dart to Wilson for a touchdown. Tim Boyle may have done enough to stick with his best pre-season performance, and Xavier Gipson solidified his place with a good performance.

Projecting a 53 is hard work, as we’re basing it solely on players already in the building. But over 1,000 players will be cut this week and there’s a good chance we bring 1-2 in to round off the roster, especially at wide receiver.

The Jets started the process of getting their roster down by cutting former Bengals linebacker Nick Vigil. I expect we’ll start seeing them come through thick and fast today.

What I’m going to do today is split it into two. The first will be what I expect the Jets to do and then the second will be what I’d do if I were in charge of the roster construction.

Here are some stats to finish the pre-season in the hope that they can add some context to the decisions the Jets make over the coming days.

• Bryce Huff finished as the team leader in pressures (10), closely followed by Pita Taumoepenu (9), Will McDonald (7) and Jermaine Johnson (6).

• Huff also led the team with 4 sacks, followed by Bruce Hector (3), Jermaine Johnson (2) and Jalyn Holmes (2).

• Zaire Barnes led the team in tackles (22), followed by Dean (18), Jimmy Moreland (12) and Craig James (10).

• Zaire Barnes also led the team in missed tackles (7), followed by Marquis Waters (3), Craig James (3), Sam Eguavoen (3) and Ashtyn Davis (2).

• Three players brought down interceptions, Brandin Echols, Chaz Surratt and Jimmy Moreland.

• Five players registered a PBU - Sauce, Echols, Hall, Moreland and Cruickshank.

• Zaire Barnes was targeted the most in coverage (15) and allowed 15 completions for 99 yards and a touchdown.

• For players who were targeted 5 or more times, Brandin Echols allowed the lowest completion percentage against (6 targets, 2 receptions, 33%).

• Trey Dean led the team in defensive stops (9), meaning a play that constituted an offensive failure for the opposition.

• Only two players were tagged with allowing a sack this pre-season, Mekhi Becton on the miscommunication and Trystan Colon.

• Greg Senat had the most pass-blocking snaps (96) without allowing a sack.

• Joe Tippmann finished with 91 pass-blocking snaps, allowing 0 sacks and 1 pressure.

• Mekhi Becton led all offensive linemen in run-blocking grade (87.1), followed by Laken Tomlinson (74.0), Greg Senat (71.3) and Carter Warren (70.5).

• Jason Brownlee led the Jets in receiving yards (102), followed by Xavier Gipson (97), Alex Erickson (85), Malike Taylor (67) and Irvin Charles (61)

• 5 different receivers recorded touchdowns. Erickson (2), Wilson (1), Jenkins (1), Yeboah (1) and Kuntz (1).

• Xavier Gipson led the team in yards after the catch (78), followed by Israel Abanikanda (53), Jason Brownlee (51) and Alex Erickson (44).

• 6 players recorded at least one drop, Irvin Charles (2), Zonovan Knight (2), Xavier Gipson (2), T.J. Luther (1), Travis Dye (1), Jason Brownlee (1).

• Alex Erickson led the team in contested catches, completing 4 of 4 opportunities. Wilson, Charles and Brownlee all had one each.

• Israel Abanikanda led the team in rushing yards (113) and YPA for a running back (4.5).

• Abanikanda also led all RBs in missed tackles forced (6), followed by Michael Carter (3), Zonovan Knight (3) and Travis Dye (2).

• Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle both finished with a 66.1% completion.

• Wilson had 1 TD to 0 INT, and Boyle had 4 TDs to 2 INT.

• Jamien Sherwood led the special teams unit in tackles (3), followed by Caleb Johnson (2), Chazz Surratt (2) and a host of players with 1.

• Greg Zuerlein finished making 8-9 field goals and 7-7 extra points. He made both of his attempts from over 50 yards.

• Thomas Morestead finished with yards per punt number of 45.6 with an average hangtime of 4.48. That hang time would have been good for 3rd best in the league last year, so good early signs.

Before we get into projecting the roster, there are a few notes on the below.

Image courtesy of Fox Sports

Brandin Echols is suspended in week one so won’t count against the initial 53.
Carl Lawson, Jarrick Bernard-Converse, and Carter Warren are players I have starting on IR. Saleh not being committed to Lawson being ready speaks volumes to me.

Robert Saleh probably put it best when asked about cutdown day:

That’s the crappy part about this entire thing, especially with how long we’ve been in camp, having the Hall of Fame game. You just draw a connection and an appreciation for all of these guys – the way they go about their business and the way they’re fighting for jobs. These are the hard ones because some of them, you’re not saying goodbye forever, but some of them, their careers are ending. These are always the hard ones.

Quarterbacks

New York Jets (3): Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle
Me (2): Aaron Rodgers, Zach Wilson

I’ve thought a lot about carrying 3 QBs on the roster and Tim Boyle made it hard on Saturday as he actually looked pretty good, albeit against 3rd and 4th stringers.

Aaron Rodgers is an extremely durable QB, the chances of both he and Zach getting injured during a game are pretty remote. I don’t think Tim Boyle is being snapped up, so you can stash him on the practice squad to step up when needed.

I wouldn’t be against carrying two QBs on the practice squad, someone who’s system savvy like Boyle and then another developmental guy, like Tommy DeVito who we saw last night for the Giants. DeVito actually visited the Jets before the draft.

Running Backs

New York Jets (4): Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda
Me (4): Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, Michael Carter, Israel Abanikanda

It was tough sledging for everyone on Saturday night. Travis Dye actually led the Jets in terms of average yards per rush at 3.2, which says everything you need to know.

Three players pick themselves here in Hall, Cook and Abanikanda. It then comes down to Michael Carter and Bam Knight. Neither have separated themselves and neither will play a huge role this year if the Jets maintain their health.

I’m going to go with Carter here because in the grand scheme of things I think he’s a better player. Last year it was largely agreed that Carter had a down year, but his down year was comparable to the only year Bam has in the league. I like them both, but I’m going to run with Carter, who’s also widely respected and liked in the locker room.

Wide Receivers

New York Jets (5): Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb, Xavier Gipson
Me (6): Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb, Xavier Gipson, Jason Brownlee

This is going to be a tough decision and it’s also the main position group where I see an outside addition occurring.

Gipson cemented his place for me with a 7 reception 79-yard performance against the Giants. He was already there, but that sealed the deal. Add his return potential and he’s a guarantee.

This means you have one spot and a lot of guys on the bubble. It likely comes down to Taylor, Brownlee and Charles. I really wanted Brownlee to step up and while he had the 2-point conversion, he only had 2 catches on the night. But I see something in him, something worth developing.

All three of those players mentioned could sneak through to the practice squad, but If the Jets go with 6, I see them going with former Packer Malik Taylor, where I’m going with the upside of Brownlee. In the end, it could be neither and I have the Jets carrying just 5 receivers.

Tight Ends

New York Jets (4): Tyler Conklin, C.J Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert, Zack Kuntz
Me (3): Tyler Conklin, C.J Uzomah, Jeremy Ruckert, Kenny Yeboah

Another tough decision for the Jets. I went with just 3 tight ends but I’d be keeping Kenny Yeboah over Kuntz if I went with 4. With Yeboah having a hamstring injury maybe he’s placed on IR to protect him for down the line.

I know a lot of people like Zack Kuntz, but I just don’t see a lot there outside the athleticism. He didn’t catch a single pass against the Giants and with his athleticism, even as a project, I’d expect to see him dominating 3rd and 4th stringers.

Arguably you’ve seen as much from E.J Jenkins as you have from Kuntz, and even his touchdown…he ran the wrong route.

At the end of the day, he has that enticing athleticism and has shown some special team ability. So I think the Jets keep him to protect him from waivers.

Offensive Line

New York Jets (9): Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mekhi Becton, Joe Tippmann, Billy Turner, Max Mitchell, Wes Schweitzer.
Me (10): Duane Brown, Laken Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Mekhi Becton, Joe Tippmann, Billy Turner, Max Mitchell, Wes Schweitzer, Greg Senat

Some teams will carry 9 offensive linemen, most will carry 10 and the odd one may even carry more. I’ve got the Jets carrying 10 here but projecting the team to carry 9 as I think that makes the most sense with Colon dropping off when Carter Warren is ready.

The starting five is set with Robert Saleh confirming that Mekhi Becton will start at RT against the Bills, if that line clicks it can be a dominant unit. The problem is they don’t have a ton of chemistry right now with their lack of playing time together.

I’m carrying Greg Senat again considering the injury history of Becton and Brown having only just returned. I’ve had Senat in the team consistently

Defensive Line

New York Jets (10): Quinnen Williams, Al Woods, John Franklin-Myers, Quinton Jefferson, Solomon Thomas, Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Bryce Huff, Michael Clemons, Tanzel Smart,
Me (10): Quinnen Williams, Al Woods, John Franklin-Myers, Quinton Jefferson, Solomon Thomas, Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Bryce Huff, Michael Clemons, Tanzel Smart,

Carl Lawson looks likely to miss the first week of the season at least considering his back injury has kept him out for weeks now. If he does make it, the I drop Tanzel Smart off here with Clemons, Thomas, Woods, Quinnen and Jefferson being able to handle inside.

One player who’s impressed me this pre-season is Solomon Thomas. The former 1st-round pick was a reliable option inside for the Jets last year and the coaching staff loves him, he will be a good rotational piece again this year.

The defensive end room is absolutely loaded. It’s impossible to not get excited about this unit.

Linebackers

New York Jets: (5): CJ Mosley, Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood, Zaire Barnes, Chaz Surratt
Me: (5): CJ Mosley, Quincy Williams, Jamien Sherwood, Zaire Barnes, Chaz Surratt

Most outlets have the Jets carrying four linebackers and I believe they carried four last year, but I think they’ll go with five this year for a few reasons.

Robert Saleh absolutely loves Chaz Surratt and we saw that in Hard Knocks, Surratt has also made some plays this pre-season and is showing all the signs of being a core special teamer.

Zaire Barnes is going to stick as a drafted player and he’s flashed some real potential this pre-season, but he’s still extremely raw. Jets won’t want either being exposed to waivers.

Cornerbacks

New York Jets (5): Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, Michael Carter, Bryce Hall, Jimmy Moreland
Me (5): Sauce Gardner, DJ Reed, Michael Carter, Bryce Hall, Jimmy Moreland

With Brandin Echols being suspended for the first game, I see the Jets breaking camp with Bryce Hall, but I wouldn’t be overly comfortable if I were him.

He was playing late in the game last night, which is usually reserved for the guys on the bubble. If Echols were available, I think Hall would be cut.

Jimmy Moreland has done enough to stick here in my mind, the former 7th-round pick has flashed some good potential to be able to play in a pinch.

Safety

New York Jets (4): Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams, Adrian Amos, Ashtyn Davis
Me: (4): Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams, Adrian Amos, Trey Dean

I have four safeties being carried here with the only difference being the fourth and final one.

I’ve written a lot about Ashtyn Davis and how I think you can better utilise the salary resources, but I can’t deny that the Jets love him. They love his athleticism and his attitude and that will be enough to make the roster.

Unfortunately, that comes at the expense of Dean who I’ve been impressed with all summer. I also don’t believe he makes it through waivers and will be picked up elsewhere.

Tony Adams starting is going to be a very interesting thing to watch early in the season, he has a veteran in Amos breathing down his neck.

Specialists

New York Jets (4): Greg Zuerlein (K), Thomas Morstead (P), Thomas Hennessy (LS), Justin Hardee (ST)
Me (4): Greg Zuerlein (K), Thomas Morstead (P), Thomas Hennessy (LS), Justin Hardee (ST)

A couple of cuts have already come through the wire:

• Broncos have cut Kendall Hinton, a player who had 24 catches for 311 yards. Interesting name to watch considering the Hackett connection.

• The Eagles cut tight end Tyree Jackson and not that we need another TE, but Jackson had 5 catches on 6 targets for 72 yards this pre-season. Jackson is a former college QB who made the switch to TE with Philly. Interesting prospect.

Most of the cuts this early are guys that likely won’t catch on anywhere, and they’re often the easy-cut decisions. Not to pick on him, but someone like Jalen Mayfield in Atlanta allowed 3 sacks and 11 pressures on 55 pass-blocking snaps. Considering the one year he did play (2021) he allowed 11 sacks and 57 pressures…I’ll be amazed if he gets another shot in the NFL, even as a 3rd round pick from 2021.