Draft Predictions

Edition #1081: Here are 5 draft predictions for the Jets and all the news and notes from the weekend.

Good Morning ☕

Congratulations everybody, we made it! It’s officially draft week, in one weeks time we’ll have the names of every drafted player and the vast majority of the UDFA’s. In one weeks time the Jets “should” be a considerably better team than they are today considering they have four picks in the top 50.

Today I’m going to make five draft predictions for the Jets and I want to hear your mock projections for each Jets draft pick. We’ll work out a scoring system and whoever wins will get…well my eternal respect as a draft expert…but maybe something else if I can work it.

Over the weekend the Giants sent Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals for the 10th overall pick and Rich Cimini was quick to point out that this is bad news for the Jets stating “The Dexter Lawrence trade could impact the Jets at 16. Obviously, the Giants are more likely to take a WR at 10 than the Bengals would have in the 10 slot. The Jets need to come out of this draft with a WR who can contribute right away,” - I’m not overly concerned because the depth at receiver in this draft is at the elite level, the gap between WR2 to WR5 is minimal IMO.

---

NEWS & NOTES 🗞️

• The Jets announced that HOF RB Curtis Martin will be announcing their 2nd round draft picks at this weeks draft. That’s notable because of Martin’s connection to Pittsburgh, let’s hop he announces some future HOF’ers.

• Yahoo Sports had a speculative article about players who could be traded around the draft and he mentioned Garrett Wilson. Some Jets have went way over the top to criticise Robinson, everything this week is pure speculation and he did clearly state “Again, to be clear: I haven’t heard any indication whatsoever that the Jets are shopping him. But there are a few teams that view Wilson among potential trade inquiries if the draft doesn’t break their way at wideout. And while it seems unlikely the new Jets regime would trade both Sauce Gardner and Wilson after signing them to extensions last offseason, I’d never say it’s impossible.” So he’s basically just predicting which is what draft week is all about.

• Chad Reuter of NFL.com has a seven round mock draft out and here’s how he sees things panning out for the Jets and I' like it…

  • Arvell Reese #2 - “The Jets take potential over college production, just like the Jaguars did when they selected Travon Walker first overall instead of Aidan Hutchinson four years ago -- and Walker developed into a player worth signing to a $110 million extension earlier this month.”

  • Ty Simpson #16 - “Simpson’s inconsistency during his only year as a starter in college is well-documented. However, the Jets might as well take a chance on addressing their need for a long-term answer at quarterback. They can still find good value at other positions with four of the top 50 picks, including Nos. 33 and No. 44 overall in Round 2.”

  • Denzel Boston #33, (LB) CJ Allen #44, (CB) Julian Neal #103, (RB) Nick Singleton #140, (OG) Fernando Carmona #179, (K) Trey Smack #228, (DT) Jackie Marshall #242

• Field Yates believes the Jets absolutely have to find a long-term solution at WR2 to take some pressure off Garett Wilson:

  • "But we're looking for something sticky, or something that can be a legitimate building block, and with Garrett entrenched as your No. 1 wide receiver and a very good player, obviously as well, the question that the front office and the coaching staff has to evaluate is, is there a specific type of wide receiver if they're looking to complement Garrett Wilson."

• 2x Super Bowl winning coach Jimmy Johnson has been speaking to ESPN about the Jets and their picks ahead of the draft:

  • "If they use the picks wisely, this could give them a foundation for years to come." “The key is not getting the picks,” Johnson said. “The key is picking the right players.”

  • “It’s like the old saying: Money coming from gambling easily disappears,” Johnson said. “Money from hard work continually grows. So you can’t be risky with those picks just because you’ve got extra.”

• ESPN’s Jeff Legwold has ranked the best 100 players in the NFL draft and his #1 Arvell Reese will be sitting there when the Jets are on the clock.

  • “An electric player with the brightest of futures, given he won’t turn 21 until August. Reese is a dynamic rusher who has shown burgeoning counter moves that are already difficult for opposing tackles. He also has the bend of the best pass rushers, sets a forceful edge when needed and can be impactful off the ball. Reese is a rare player with elite versatility.”

• The Athletic also had a mock draft out yesterday which tried to highlight how the Giants trade would impact the top-10. I think they just couldn’t be bothered to do a full 32 pick mock.

  • Arvell Reese #2: There’s some debate over whether or not the Jets prefer David Bailey over Reese here, which is fair. Bailey is the better pass rusher right now. But Reese, for me, is the closest thing we’ve seen to Micah Parsons since Micah Parsons. His potential as a positionless front-seven chaos creator feels very real. And while Bailey is a more polished pass rusher today, I’m not sure we’ll be able to say that forever, as Reese has just scratched the surface.

• Remember Todd McShay basically saying it was a done deal that the Jets were taking bailey at #2? Well this weekend he did a complete 180 and said he believes the Jets will now take Arvell Reese. Basically these guys are making it up as they go along. If the Jets take Reese they can point out the fact that was the last name they said, if the Jets take Bailey they can say their original “intel” was accurate. I could sit here on TJW and say I have intel that the Jets will take either Bailey or Reese and feel pretty confident about it.

---

5 Draft Projections 🟢⚪🗽

Sometimes with these predictions I think I should project what i don’t want to happen, because I usually his around .067 with these, which is similar to the Mets current team batting average.

But let’s have a go at predicting five things that will happen for the Jets over the course of draft weekend. If you’re a betting man/woman, please don’t use these to set your wagers 😂

1. The Jets select #2 overall and draft Arvell Reese

My instinct tells me that the Jets were interested and remain interested in trading down from this spot. However you need two to tango and I can see them sticking and selected the BPA and that should be Arvell Reese. I understand that David Bailey’s instant impact as a pass-rusher is enticing, but overall Reese’s potential is unmatched by any other defensive player in this draft. There is a reason that many consider him the #1 prospect including Fernando Mendoza. Any defensive coaching staff worth their salt will know how to utilise the varied skill-set that Reese brings to the table, his speed, instincts, tackling all scream All-Pro and I hope the Jets don’t pass on him for Bailey who’s incredibly talented, but will struggle against the run in year one.

2. The Jets leave the draft with two new QBs

There is so much talk of the Jets waiting until 2027, but teams who pin their hopes on the future are often playing a dangerous game. We don’t know how many of these QBs will declare for the 2027 draft and we don’t know how they’ll continue to develop through their college careers. How many projected first round draft picks in 2026 took a step back and are now looking at 3rd and 4th round projections? More than one. I’m a big fan of continuing to select QBs until you find the right one and if you end up with two good QBs…well that’s a nice problem to have. I’m not sure who they’ll take, but I can see them taking a two-pronged approach, drafting one in the early rounds (1-4) and then taking a UDFA flier. As this is a prediction post, I’ll say the Jets take Ty Simpson as the early draft pick and Joe Fagnano as their UDFA. Remember we have Geno Smith, Brady Cook and Bailey Zappe, so there is space for two new QBs to make it.

3. Denzel Boston is the apple of their eye

Denzel Boston just seems to make too much sense for the Jets. What I can’t decide is whether they take Boston at #16 and Simpson at #33 or the other way around, maybe they have to move around slightly to secure both. However Boston is a 6’4, 210lb receiver who runs well, we don’t know how well as he didn’t run the forty, but his game speed looks good. 881 yards, 11 TDs, 77% success rate on contested catches and 3.1% drop rate. I mean in terms of a statistical outlook for an X receiver, it doesn’t get much better than this. I’ve watched a lot of Boston recently and he may be my favourite prospect in the draft, so maybe this is just wishful thinking. However, if we look back on this draft in five years and Boston is the best receiver to come out of it…I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest. He makes the Jets much better in 2026.

4. Jets will draft a running back in the 4th round

I’m just going to repeat that I still can’t quite shake the feeling that the Jets will shock everyone and take Love with the #2 overall pick. But while I still have that feeling I’m not projecting it. But I do think they’ll draft a RB through the middle rounds and the 4th round seems ideal, especially considering the prospects who are likely to be available. We’re talking Emmett Johnson, Jonah Coleman, Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton and Demond Claiborne. All of those guys have traits that will translate to the NFL and while Nick Singleton is the man most mocked to the Jets, I’m going to go with the power back who plays with an intensity that I think Glenn will love, and the guy who’s arguably the best pass-protector in the group…Penn State’s Kaytron Allen and his 1300+ yards and 15 TD season. He’s got a lot to like about his game.

5. Jets won’t take an offensive lineman until the 4th round

I’ve seen a few mocks linking the Jets with Olaivavega Ioane in the first round, Emmanuel Pregnon and Chase Bisontis in the second round and Keylan Rutledge, Gennings Ducker and Jalen Farmer in the third. But I think they bypass all those players and opt to address the interior of the line in the 4th round with someone like Billy Schrauth and Febechi Nwaiwu, two players who we have previously featured on here. Maybe even Logan Taylor who is someone we haven’t looked at on TJW recently.

---

AROUND THE LEAGUE 🛬🛄

• Zay Flowers believes that John Harbaugh’s practice habits led to the Ravens having more injuries than most teams.

• Cameron Heyward is campaigning for Aaron Rodgers to return to the Steelers. A decision is needed very quickly.

• Between the NY Giants and the NY Jets, they control 25% of the top-16 picks in the NFL draft. Nice little note from Schefter.

• Reuben Bain Jr is one of the harder prospects to project, Yahoo Sports looks at how teams are navigating his arm length and car crash details.

---

NYK 🏀

A big congratulations to the New York Knicks who took game one of their playoff series against Atlanta. Make sure you keep up to date with the race to the title by subscribing to Knicks Film School by Jonathan Macri, which is basically the only place I go to for all my Knicks content.

---

DRAFT PREDICTION GAME

This is a really good idea that came through the comments on Friday. But lets put the TJW draft experts to the test. I was hunting for some software that would make this easier, but unfortunately I couldn’t find anything. So…we’re going old school and one step up from pen and paper.

So this is how it’s going to work. I’ve got a set number of questions below. For every answer that you get right, you get 5 points. Then at the end I’m going to ask for you to pick 7 players that you think will be Jets and what round they will take them in, if you get the player right then it’s 5 points, if you also get the round right then it’s 10 points.

Name 7 players the Jets will draft & the round they’re taken in (70 points on offer)
Will the Jets take a QB in the first two rounds? (5 points on offer)
Will the Jets take a WR in the first round? (5 points on offer)
The school of the first player the Jets take? (5 points on offer)
The school of the last player the Jets take? (5 points on offer)
Higher or lower, Jets will draft 7 players? (5 points on offer)
Higher or lower, 5 draft weekend trades for the Jets? (5 points on offer)

Total points available: 100