BREAKING: Aaron Rodgers Trade: Complete
Edition #377
Good evening!
Some things just can’t wait.
I’m sending out this emergency newsletter as the Jets and Packers have reportedly just agreed to a trade that sends Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, and it happened 10 minutes after I finished writing tomorrow’s post, so we’re going to do this instead and I’ll send tomorrows post out as planned.
So let’s get into the compensation. It is reported that Rodgers will sign a new deal with Green Bay to help with the cap, so it’s unlikely to be completed today, but all being well the deal will be complete by Thursday afternoon.
Jet’s receive: Aaron Rodgers, pick No. 15, a 2023 5th-rd pick (No. 170).
Packers receive: Pick No. 13, a 2023 2nd-rd pick (No. 42), a 6th-rd pick (No. 207), a conditional 2024 2nd-rd pick that becomes a 1st if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the plays
We have a pick swap in the first round, which was widely expected. Chances are Green Bay wants to get as high as possible to put them in a position to draft JSN. Jets probably like 4-5 tackles, so don’t mind dropping down two spots, which helped maintain that 2nd second-round selection.
The Jets also receive another 5th-round pick in the 2023 draft.
The Packers get that jump in the first, and they get one of the Jet’s second-round picks. Again, that’s something we expected to happen. The Jets send their 6th-round pick which they can easily recoup by trading down if they want to.
The really interesting one for me is the conditional 2024 pick that starts at a 2nd but escalates based on Rodgers's playing time rather than any playoff advances. Chances are if Rodgers plays 65%+ then the Jets are making the playoffs anyway, and this adds some injury protection for a 40+-year-old QB, but I’d have liked to have seen it based on playoff advancement, rather than just playing time.
The Chances are that the Jets have sent two first-round picks, a 2nd and a 6th to Green Bay in exchange for Aaron Rodgers, a slightly lower first-round pick, and a 5th-round pick. It’s largely in line with what we expected, we just didn’t expect the conditional pick to be based on playing time.
The interesting part will be the contract and how that restructure with Green Bay works and what the Jets will be paying. We’ll cover that as soon as it’s released.
I’m glad we’ve got it done and we can now continue the off-season and just look forward to the draft.
So here’s an update on the remaining Jets picks in the 2023 draft:
Round 1 - Pick #15
Round 2 - Pick #43
Round 4 - Pick #112
Round 5 - Pick #143
Round 5 - Pick #170
What are your thoughts on the trade? Here’s a reminder of our new QBs stats over the last five years…you don’t need me to share the stats for the Jets QBs over that time period for a comparison piece.
Afternoon all,
Overall, it is not a fleecing by any means, and I can see how they may have been going back and forth on the parameters of the 2024 2nd round pick.
I can see how it would be unreasonable for the Packers to entertain that a perennial losing organization would have to achieve a certain level of success, or guarantee a player of Aaron's character to commit to two seasons, in order to get back a 2024 #1 pick.
The 65% threshold does protect the Jet's from Aaron suffering a season ending injury early or at minimum, midway through the season.
The 65% turns out to be just over 11 games (11.7), so it does serve as an insurance policy in the event of a catastrophic injury situation dovetailing the 2023 season.
Even if Aaron gets hurt, and they finish with a top 10 pick. If he does not play 65% of the season, the trade would be the a 2nd round pick in 2023 (42nd), a 2nd in 2024 (42nd range), a 2023 1st round swap (13th to 15th), and a 2023 5th (170), for a 2023 6th (207). (Note: The 1st round swap, and the 6th for the 5th swap, is equivalent to a 4th round pick (107th).
That is not a bad deal by Joe.
(Wait a minute......Joe moved back two spots in the 2023 1st round (13th to 15th), but upgraded their 2023 6th rd. pick (207) to a 5th rd. pick (170), in order to give the Packers the value of a 4th round pick (2023), without giving up an actual 4th round pick in 2023. That is a job well done in my opinion.)
Now, the worse case scenario, and it needs to be mentioned, is what happens if the season goes south due to injuries of other players on the roster?
I do not want to mention any particular player, as we could figure out who on our own, if they happen to go down, and cost the team the play-offs in 2023, while Aaron plays 65% of the 2023 season, and then retires.
I wonder if the Jet's would sit Rodgers late in the season, if this scenario played out prior to being in play-off contention.
Time will tell. But, it is not a bad day to be a Jets fan.
Enjoy all!
Thanks for getting this out so quickly. I have to say that I'm disappointed in the compensation that we are giving to GB. I'm excited that Rodgers is coming here, but at this point, I'd almost rather have had Derek Carr, and I was never in favor of that earlier this year.