Big TJW News & Game Preview

Edition #289

Good morning!

This week took a turn for the better yesterday when upon waking I saw the news that Steve Cohen had shown a ruthless streak in inking star Carlos Correa into a huge deal to be the new 3rd baseman for the Mets! Head over to Met’s Fix for all the reactions to that.

Here at TJW, we’ve got to get down to some business, our off-season spending is months away and we have a game to win. Tonight the Jets take on Jacksonville at Metlife knowing that only a win will do. According to the weatherman, it’s going to be wet and windy in New Jersey, so hopefully, the entertainment on the field will be worth it.

A huge congratulations to Sauce Gardner, C.J. Mosley, Quinnen Williams and Justin Hardee for making the 2022-23 NFL Pro Bowl.

Before I get to the game review, I have some big news that I wanted to share about the future of TJW.

When I first started TJW I didn’t know where it was going to go. I’ve been writing about the Jets since around 2006 when I joined Bleacher Report. In 2009 I moved to SB Nation where I still contribute and in 2021 I decided I wanted to do something for myself.

Over the years I’ve managed to create a few contacts within the Jets organization and Jets beat, but also within the football community. Here we are 289 newsletters later and the time has come to move TJW to a partially subscription-based newsletter.

Why is this happening?

TJW is a passion of mine, but it’s also a hobby, one that takes a significant amount of time and a very understanding wife. Depending on the newsletter it often takes 2-3 hours to put together and in the off-season, I like to contact coaches, players, and evaluators to get insight on draft prospects, which takes even longer.

With the demands of my day job and the big news that we’re expecting our second child in April, I needed to make a decision. I absolutely love TJW and I hope I can continue to do it for many years to come, but I need your help to make it viable and sustainable.

I don’t want to spend less time on TJW, I want to spend more time to ensure you receive the best content with the best insights. TJW will never go fully subscribed. I will post one post a week which will remain free to read and I think it makes sense for that to be Monday’s edition.

When is it happening?

In January. The 3rd of January to be exact.

How much & what do I get?

I’ve kept it at the lowest Substack bracket there is. So it’ll be $5/month or $50/year.

If you’ve already pledged for the year on Substack as so many have this week, that will automatically be your yearly subscription so there is no need to do it again. So for the cost of a nice cup of coffee once a month, you’ll get a minimum of 20 Jets-related articles every month and if you choose the yearly option you’ll get around 260 articles for $50, which works out at around $0.19 per article, which isn’t too bad if I do say so myself.

I hope that with continued support I’ll be able to introduce more member benefits throughout 2023 and spend more time trying to hunt down some good interview content and crunching some stats that aren’t readily available right now.

Thank you to everyone who’s been with me from the start and to those who have joined over the months. If you want to subscribe you can do so below, and if you don’t then I appreciate your continued reading and you’ll still hear from TJW all the way up to the start of January and every Monday going forward.

Now let’s get to the important bit.

I hate must-win games, they give me a nervous and nauseous feeling in the pit of my stomach. But if I’d have said to you at the start of the year that on December 22nd the Jets would be playing a game with playoff implications, would you have taken it? I would presume the majority of you are like me and would have snapped that up.

Here’s the injury report to start things off. Quinnen Williams was a full participant, and that’s huge for the Jets. On the other side of the ball the Jaguars have lost their first-round pick Travon Walker and former Jet Foley Fatukasi will also be missing.

One problem for the Jets is that we almost peaked too soon. The 5-2 start raised expectations and not the 7-7 record doesn’t look quite as impressive as it once did. Remember vegas had us winning no more than 5 games in 2022, so in many ways, we’ve already exceeded expectations, but based on our recent record, it doesn’t feel that way.

Trevor Lawrence

Now here comes Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team who started 2-6 and now find themselves in the playoff conversation all-be-it on the outside looking in having won 3 of their last four games. Those three wins have come against the 7-7 Tennessee Titans, the 9-5 Baltimore Ravens, and the 10-4 Dallas Cowboys, the Jags are playing some good football, and it starts with Trevor Lawrence.

Robert Saleh didn’t want to hear the comparisons between the development of Lawrence and Wilson citing different circumstances, but when you have the #1 overall pick facing the #2 overall pick from the same draft class, and they just so happen to both be quarterbacks, the comparison is unavoidable.

Trevor Lawrence is in the ascendency, while Zach seems to be holding the fort until Mike White returns having already been benched this season. The story is far from being written on either QB, but right now there in very different places and moving further apart every week.

Over the last four games, Trevor Lawrence has a 110.8 passer rating, 11 touchdowns to 1 interception, and 1,186 passing yards. In fact, since week 9 Lawrence is first in the NFL with a 70% completion percentage, tied 2nd with 14 touchdowns, and has helped drive the Jaguars to a 4-2 record over that stretch. He may not have looked every bit like a franchise quarterback last year, but he certainly does this year.

Brett Kollmann sent out the following tweet around Lawrence’s ability to deal with pressure, and as you can see he’s pretty adept at it. He climbs and slides within the pocket when needed and he can also throw on the move when the play breaks down.

Brett Kollmann @BrettKollmann

Trevor Lawrence against 5+ pass rushers since he started his hot streak in week nine: - 50/67 (74.6% - 2nd to Mahomes) - 570 yds (3rd to Mahomes and Goff) - 5 TD (3rd to Burrow and Goff) - 1 INT - 30 first downs (5th) He's been phenomenal against pressure looks of all kinds.

The one thing I disagree with here is the final sentiment that “He’s been phenomenal against pressure looks of all kinds” statement. I checked in with his pressure numbers and they painted a slightly different picture. So far in 2022, he has a 49.2% completion percentage under pressure (17th) with 4 TDs (14th) and 4 INTs (21st), and an 8.4% turnover-worthy play rate (4th highest), now unfortunately Zach is the worst QB in the league when pressured so this isn’t exactly advantage Jets, but it’s worth noting. Remember the Jets blitz at a league-low rate of 15%, yet are a top 10 team in terms of pressure percentage at 23.3%.

Lawrence may be good against 5-man rushes because it leaves space to exploit in the passing games, but the Jets rarely send 5 men and he’s average to below average when under pressure.

DVOA Rankings

It’s not just about Trevor, although making him uncomfortable is going to be key if the Jets hope to walk away with a victory.

Here’s how the two teams rank in terms of DVOA¹

Overall: Jets (10th), Jaguars (16th)
Offense: Jets (19th), Jaguars (8th)
Defense: Jets (6th), Jaguars (28th)
Special Teams: Jets (26th), Jaguars (12th)

In a similar vein to the Detroit Lions game on Sunday, the two teams are polar opposites in terms of their strength. The Jaguars have a top-10 offense going against a top-10 defense in the Jets. The Jets have a below-average offense going against one of the worst defenses in football.

The Jaguars have the 4th worst passing defense in football this year, allowing on average 252.6 passing yards per game, and that number is even worse when they play away from Florida "(287.0). They’ve also allowed 24 passing touchdowns which again is a bottom 10 number in the NFL. The one thing I will say about the Jaguars is they’re a bit of a boom-or-bust proposition. No team in the NFL has more pass defenses registered than the 81 put up by Jacksonville and their 22 takeaways put them joint 4th in the league. They’ve forced 6 turnovers in their last two games and that’s something Zach Wilson and the Jets will need to be aware of.

The playmaking ability comes from their two safeties, Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco who have combined for 6 interceptions, 20 pass defenses, and 2 forced fumbles. Both do a good job of reading the QB and both have active hands and both take chances on balls in the air, sometimes it comes off, and sometimes it doesn’t. Jenkins in particular has allowed a 78.6% completion into his coverage.

Pass Protection

I haven’t painted the prettiest picture for the Jets so far, but here’s a weakness of the Jaguars that plays into a weakness of ours. Sometimes negating your weaknesses is as important as consolidating your strengths.

The Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of getting to the QB. They’ve managed just 26 sacks on the season which is 28th in the NFL, although they do generate pressure at a top-10 rate, they just don’t close the deal.

The Jet’s offensive line has been MIA recently, but keeping pressure off Zach is so incredibly important, one because the Jags just don’t have the pass defense to hold up against the likes of Garrett Wilson, but also because Zach Wilson when kept clean and Zach Wilson when under pressure are two very different propositions.

Just look at the splits:

The Jet's line was a mess against the Lions, and they will need to improve dramatically, even against a team who has struggled in actually sacking the QB.

Receiving

Generating pressure on Trevor Lawrence is the first goal, but the Jaguar receivers will be tested more than at any point this season when they come up against the Jets. Lawrence likes to spread the ball around, although he has two favored targets in Christian Kirk (108 targets) and Zay Jones (102 targets). Kirk spends more time in the slot than Jones, but they both have over 200 snaps in the slot and out wide.

The Two players who concern me the most are tight end Evan Engram who has 61 catches for over 600 yards and 4 TDs and Travis Etienne who as well as being a lethal runner, has 27 targets and over 200 yards and is often a player who gets the Jaguars out of a bind. As much as I like the Jets linebackers, I’m not sure they’ve proven a consistent ability to shut down tight ends and receiving running backs.

Zay Jones is having a career year in 2022 with Trevor Lawrence, he’s already at a career-high for receptions (74), yards (764), and his 5 TDs are two behind the 7 he scored as a member of the 2018 Buffalo Bills. I’ve always liked Jones as a receiver and he’s getting a shot to prove he’s the answer for a young up-and-coming team like the Jaguars.

On the other side of the coin, the Jets will be a touch short. NewYork ruled out both Denzel Mims and Jeff Smith, which means that the Jets will either go heavy on the tight ends by activating Ruckert or they’ll elevate Spencer or Charles from the practice squad. If you were reading TJW in the off-season you’ll know I was a fan of Charles and think his contested catch ability could come in handy with Zach Wilson.

Corey Davis is set to be healthy though and Michael Nania posted some pretty interesting stats around the Jets offense with and without Davis, and it paints a picture as to his value to the team:

With Davis: - 216 pts on 112 drives - 1.93 pts/drive (Would rank 18th in NFL this year) Without Davis: - 54 pts on 51 drives - 1.03 pts/drive (Would be 32nd)

The Jets are a better overall team than the Jaguars, but Jacksonville has the form quarterback. We may not need Zach to win this game, but we certainly need him not to lose it.

1. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on the situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. For more detail, read below.