Zach Attack + Rookie Performances

Edition #232

Good morning!

The news we’ve all been waiting for was delivered by coach Saleh last night, as the Jets head honcho confirmed that starting QB Zach Wilson has been cleared to resume full practice, and barring any setbacks, he will start against the Steelers on Sunday.

If some of the air had been let out of the pre-season hype balloon through the first three weeks of the season, this has given me a little lift heading into the weekend.

I still have a lot of questions about Zach and if he is the answer to our search for a “Franchise QB” - Someone did point out yesterday I called him the franchise man, but I was more talking about how the Jets view him, rather than stating he’d proved he’s the man. My belief is that it’s better for us to find out now that he isn’t than have those questions hanging over the franchise.

In today’s newsletter, I have a few bits and pieces to share about the rookies as we take a look at how they’re performing three weeks into the season, but first, we’re going to get into some notes and quotes from the pressers.

Coach Saleh on Zach: "It's exciting to get him back out there, but at the same time, it's not all about Zach. It's making sure we're executing on all cylinders." - He’s right about that, if Zach’s the player we all want/need him to be, he’ll make a huge difference. But he can’t pass-protect like a lineman, he can’t catch the ball and he can’t prevent those defensive miscommunications. He’s part of the puzzle, but if you want a savior from #2 then you may end up being disappointed, at least this weekend.

Coach Saleh on injuries: “Quincy is dealing with his ankle, he’s not going to practice today, he’s doing a lot better. Echols will be limited with a hamstring, JFM is limited with his toe”

Coach Saleh on Zach: “He’s in a good mental state…he had a really nice training camp, he was getting better every day, so now it’s just about him getting out there and getting some game time experience, and finding ways to get better every single day”.

Zach Wilson on being ready: "I'm just excited to be back on the field, going through the whole process. It's the happiest I've been in the month…I'm full go. I'm gonna be playing ball how I can” - There’s always an element of concern around knee injuries, especially when you’re talking about a mobile quarterback, so we’ll see if there’s any hesitation come Sunday.

Coach Saleh on the tackles: “We got all the faith in the world in the guys we do have, Max is playing really well and McDermott has played a lot of good football, it’s next man up. It’s just a matter of making sure that everyone does their part and Zach will be fine back there” - Absolutely agree on Max, he’s been very good so far. I must have missed all that good football from McDermott, but I’m sure he has had good games in his career.

Saleh on Max Mitchell and getting him later in the draft: “You saw a lot of athleticism, you just weren’t sure from a technical standpoint how he’d respond coming from where he came from, It’s just a different world. To our surprise, he’s taken on from a technique standpoint, he’s a lot stronger than we thought he’d be and he’s only going to get stronger…he’s going to be a very good player for a very long time” - Love all that, outside of the where he comes from comment, scout the player not the helmet right.

Three games are a microcosm of a player’s career, and although there are some who try to label a player as quickly and as early as possible, you really can’t judge a player’s career arc based on a tiny sample size of data. I’ve seen comments about how Max Mitchell will never be an elite tackle and how Sauce Gardner is guaranteed to be an elite corner, and while instinctively I think the latter is true…there are no guarantees after three games.

However, that doesn’t mean it’s not a good time to step back and take a look at the Jets rookies and how they compare to their peers. I’ll do this periodically through the season just to see how they’re being used and how they are performing statistically.

I’m going to skip Jeremy Ruckert for now, he’s only appeared in one game and has received just one target. It wouldn’t be fair to try and read anything into his usage at the moment.

Sauce Gardner - #4 Overall

Sauce Gardner unsurprisingly has made the biggest splash so far, as a starting cornerback he’s going to be under the spotlight in a passing league. You tend to get recognition when you have pass defenses against both Mark Andrews and Ja’Marr Chase through your first three games of the season. Sauce has carried that swagger from his college career to his pro performance and while he’s been involved in some miscommunications, he’s undoubtedly been as good as advertised.

Through three games of the season his stat line looks rather impressive:

12 Targets
7 Receptions
58.3% of targets into receptions.
92 yards allowed
30.6 yards allowed/game
17 yards after the catch
5.6 yards after the catch/game
12 Tackles
1 Tackle for a loss
4 Pass Defenses
1 Touchdown Allowed (miscommunication)
71.1 Run Defense Grade

The stats back up the theory that not only is Sauce a potential lockdown corner in this league, but he’s a complete corner. Earlier today I was listening to the Move The Sticks podcast with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks and they spoke about how corners in the modern NFL have to be + run defenders if they really want to be considered one of the best at their position, and Sauce has shown a willingness to get involved in the run game and play a physical brand of football. He has also shown the ability to rattle star receivers like Chase, which is never a bad thing.

PFF has him as the 4th best rookie corner at the moment with a grade of 69.2, trailing Miami’s Kader Kohou, Cleveland’s Martin Emerson, and the Chief’s Jaylen Watson. The grading system that they use is a mystery to people who work at PFF (I’ve spoken to more than one who doesn’t rate the system) - Check the stats and Sauce Gardner is outperforming all of them as an overall player and as a coverage corner. I’m confident that if we look at this again at the end of the season we’ll see Sauce leading the way.

Garrett Wilson - #10 Overall

Garrett Wilson is another receiver who is as advertised. He instantly became a favored target of Joe Flacco, based on his ability to win his one-on-one matchups and get open with ease. The hope is that with Zach Wilson returning, he’ll maintain his volume share while maximizing his opportunities. There are instances on tape where he’s got wide open and Joe Flacco has been unable to find him.

Let’s take a look at Wilson’s statistical breakdown, three games into his career:

108 Receiving Routes Run
29 Targets
18 Receptions
62.1% of Targets Caught
1 Drop (I counted two, but both PFR and PFF have it as one)
214 Yards
55 Yards after the catch
11.9 Yards Per Reception
2 Touchdowns
54% of snaps from the slot
39.8% of snaps from wide
2-7 on Contested Catches (28.6%)
4 Missed Tackles Forced
11 First Downs Gained
57% of all Offensive Snaps Played

Wilson hasn’t been perfect, he had the one drop against Cleveland that he more than made up for and he did let another ball slip through his hands against the Bengals, although as you can see from the statistical breakdown the statisticians didn’t credit him with that one. I personally think we have something special with Wilson and all we need to do is ensure that he gets the targets needed (10+) on a weekly basis.

Overall, PFF rate Garrett Wilson as the 7th best receiver in football right now and the #2 rated rookie wide receiver behind Drake London. If you look at their stats, they’re almost identical. Both have 214 yards and 2 touchdowns, both have 4 missed tackles forced and 11 first downs, but Drake doesn’t have any drops on his record. So I’d say it’s fair that they have him rated slightly higher.

The point here is that we have a top 10-rated wide receiver in the NFL on this team, and he’s only 3 games into his career.

Jermaine Johnson - #26 Overall

Johnson completed the trio of first-rounders for the Jets, but he was always likely to have the biggest jump of the three in year one for several reasons. First of all the Jets had good depth at the position and with Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers he was always facing an uphill battle. The Jets like to rotate their rushers, so when Lawson and JFM aren’t in, guys like Jacob Martin are getting valuable reps and when you’re rotating it may keep you fresh, but it’s also harder to get into a rhythm.

So let’s take a quick look at the statistics for Johnson and how the Jets are using him.

61 total defensive snaps played
32% of all defensive snaps
47 special teams snaps played
57% of all special team snaps
32 run defense snaps
29 pass-rush snaps
2 total pressures generated
1 sack
6.9% win rate
7 defensive stops
0 missed tackles
68.4 overall defensive grade
70.2 run defense grade
76.3 tackle grade
57.2 pass-rush grade

I’m not sure many of us would have guessed that Jermaine Johnson would have more run-defense snaps than pass-rush snaps in the early running, but not only has he played more against the run, but he’s been one of the best Jets defenders against the ground game. He’s still yet to really take off in the pass rush game, but he did have that sack in the Baltimore game, and getting your first sack is key…just ask Vernon Gholston. He’ll want to improve that 6.9% win rate, that’s relatively low…but it’s also based on less than 30 snaps rushing the passer.

In terms of how he ranks among fellow rookies, he’s currently the #4 ranked rookie edge defender, which is higher than Aidan Hutchinson. In terms of run defense, he jumps up to the #3 rated edge defender with only Michael Clemons and Boye Mafe ahead of him. He’s also #3 in terms of pass-rush, above both Travon Walker and Aidan Hutchinson. The moral here is that rookie edges sometimes take some time to really settle in.

Breece Hall #36 Overall

One of the big questions heading into the 2022 season was how the Jets would balance getting both Micheal Carter and Breece Hall into the game. As you can see below, they have been largely equal with a small advantage to Carter who leads the backs in overall snaps and rushing attempts. Breece has flashed his natural potential, but we’re still waiting for that takeover game, a game to announce himself to the NFL. Part of the issue is that the Jets haven’t been a very good run-blocking team so far this year, and part of the reason is the Jets lead the league in passing attempts averaging 52 a game, that’s pretty unsustainable for this Jets team, and the offensive philosophy that MLF operates.

Now that we’ve taken a look at the split, let’s take a look at his statistics.

21 Attempts
112 Yards
5.3 Yards a carry
0 Rushing TDs
1 Fumble
84 Yards after contact
4 yards after contact per attempt
4 missed tackles forced
4 rushes of 10+ yards
20 Receiving targets
13 receptions
101 yards
1 TD
3 Drops

I don’t think you’re going to get the best out of Breece while he’s averaging 7 rushes per game, the hope is that with the return of Wilson we will be able to operate our game plan a little better. The hope is also that maybe at some point this season we’ll be playing ahead, and that will open things up for the Jets and Breece in particular.

One thing to note is that Breece is doing well when asked to stay in and pass protect, he currently has a 72.8 grade, he’s only stayed in to block sparingly with 8 pass blocking snaps, but he’s yet to allow a pressure.

Among his peers, only three rookies have reached the minimum snap quantity to be on the grade chart, and Breece is 3rd overall at the moment, behind Jaylen Warren from Pittsburgh and Dameon Pierce of Houston, but all three are graded within 1 point of each other. Breece is the best pass blocker but his drops have killed his grade.

Max Mitchell - #111 Overall

Max Mitchell was never supposed to see the field this year, the Jets wanted him to have a redshirt year to work on his technique and strength. Unfortunately, sometimes things don’t go to plan, and on some occasions, good things come from unplanned situations. Mitchell was thrust into the action against Baltimore and he’s improved every single week, against Cincinnatti he looked as though he belonged and he largely negated the rush of Sam Hubbard.

Let’s dive straight into the stats

232 Snaps
173 Run Blocking Snaps
2 Sacks Allowed
9 Pressures Allowed
96.7 Pass-Blocking Efficiency
1 Penalty
58.6 Offensive Grade
55.9 Run Blocking Grade
56.9 Pass Blocking Grade

Those stats may not blow you away, but when you consider that he’s outperforming some first-rounders it adds some context to what Max is being asked to do. I also think it helps to see the progress that he’s made, here are his grades broken down by week starting at the top with week one against Baltimore. With any rookie what you want to see is an improvement from week to week, and that’s exactly what we’re getting.

Now let’s look at peer context, starting as a tackle in the NFL isn’t easy. Evan Neal who was taken #7 overall has allowed more sacks (4) and pressures (10) than Max and has a lower pass-blocking efficiency (94.2). Ikem Ekwonu taken 6th overall by Carolina has allowed more sacks (3) the same amount of pressures (9) and has a lower pass-blocking efficiency (93.9)…they also have similar run-block grades which is eye-catching when you consider Ikem was supposed to come in and blow defenders off the line in that facet.

Michael Clemons - #117 Overall

Now we come to Michael Clemons, who has quickly become a fan favorite of Jets fans. Aaron Whitecotton did mention in the off-season that the Jets may play him inside and out, but that hasn’t really happened so far. In terms of his alignment 59/66 snaps played have come with him lined up as a traditional defensive end, outside the tackles shoulder, 2 have come lined up over the tackle and just 5 have come inside as a defensive tackle.

Let’s take a look at the stats so far:

66 Total Snaps
35 Run Defense Snaps
31 Pass Rush Snaps
6 Tackles
2 Pressures
0 Missed Tackles
72.1 Overall Grade
82.3 Run Defense Grade
73.6 Tackle Grade
56.5 Pass Rush Grade

Two pressures from just 31 pass-rush snaps aren’t bad at all, in the same way that Jermaine Johnson’s pass-rush production isn’t bad considering what he’s being asked to do, but both rookie defensive ends are making their mark in the run game. If you look at all NFL edge players who have at least 30 run-defense snaps to their name, Clemons's name is right there among the elite at #5 overall and Johnson isn’t that far behind at #22, both good figures.

If you compare Clemons performances to his rookie peers, he is rated as the #2 defensive end right now trailing only Dominique Robinson of Chicago, and his 82.3 run defense grade puts him right at the top of that list. You get the feeling that Clemons is only just scratching the surface of his potential, I’d like to see him given a little more time at DT going forward to see how he handles that.