Yes to Jensen? Not so fast...

Would swapping out McGovern for Jensen really improve the Jets?

Good morning Jets fans. Welcome to the final Friday before the free agency frenzy kicks into gear. This time next week we’ll have a good idea of how the Jets will be shaping up for 2022, and we may have more insights into the draft strategy. It’s almost the calm before the storm at the minute, there are a few moves here and there but everyone is gearing up for the start of the new league year on the 16th of March. Let’s jump into a couple of free agents.

Should the Jets sign Ryan Jensen?

Yesterday I asked on Twitter who the home run free agent signing would be, and surprisingly the name that popped up the most was Tampa Bay’s pending free agent center Ryan Jensen.

Jensen is a former 6th round pick of the Baltimore Ravens and spent the first 4 years of his career playing for the Ravens before signing with the Buccaneers on a 4 year $42 million free-agent deal in 2018.

Jensen made the pro-bowl for the first time in his 8 year career in 2021 and now he’s about to hit free agency for the 2nd time in his career.

What will the cost be?

According to PFF Ryan can expect to receive a three-year deal worth around $40 million, so an annual average of $13.3 million per year and $26.25 million in guarantees.

What about Connor McGovern?

The Jets currently have McGovern signed for the 2022 season for a cap hit of $10.3 million. If Joe Douglas decides to cut McGovern, the Jets will save $9 million on the cap with $1.3 million being dead against the cap.

How did they compare in 2021?

Statistically, there really wasn’t much in it this season. Then consider that one of these guys was working with a hall of fame QB who knew how to diagnose and exploit defenses and the other was working with a rookie QB. Then consider that McGovern was working next to a rookie in AVT on the left side and a revolving door on the right side in GVR.

McGovern like the rest of the Jets offensive line improved as the season went on, and his play took an upturn after LDT was introduced to the lineup in week 11 against Miami. Over his final 6 games, McGovern allowed a single sack and 5 pressures…so less than a pressure a game, those are elite numbers for anyone.

McGovern isn’t the strongest man on the field, but he’s perfectly suited to the new system the Jets run under Mike LaFleur. McGovern’s 2021 season was the highest-graded season of his career and drastically better than his 2020 season. This is key for perception, McGovern had an awful 2020 season (6 sacks, 33 pressures, and a pass-blocking efficiency of 96.5), but the systems are completely different and you have to credit him with improving his performance.

Jensen allowed a pressure every 32.8 snaps whereas McGovern allowed a pressure every 34.2 snaps, so a slightly better rate. This is notable because Jensen is considered the better pass-protector of the two, while McGovern is obviously more suited to the run game the Jets operate.

One of the main comments I’ve seen in relation to preferring Jensen is that he communicates better. I don’t think there is any way for us fans to judge that, McGovern could call the best protection and communicate that protection to the lineman perfectly…if they don’t execute it, it’ll make the center look bad. There were instances in 2021 of poor execution from the line and many assumed that’s on the center for not communicating, but that’s simply an unfair assumption without any real concrete evidence. If McGovern calls full-slide protection and everyone slides but the guard, you’ll get a free rusher through the A-gap…that will look awful on the center but he likely communicated the call perfectly and executed his role.

You’re more likely to find communication mixups with rookie linemen on the field and in the first year of a new offensive system. I would expect that to improve dramatically in year two. While Jensen is credited with being a good communicator, remember he had Tom Brady calling protections behind him, and while Jensen would contribute and input, it’s freaking Tom Brady back there.

One thing you can say is that Jensen is durable and that’s an attractive trait for a team who’s physio bill must be astronomical. Jensen hasn’t missed a single game over the last 5 years.

Who’s the better system fit?

This is an interesting question. I think Jensen is talented enough to fit any system in football, he’s smart and he’s aggressive.

But…if you said to me that I had to choose one then the choice is simple. McGovern has better lateral mobility, is better in space, and will be going into year two in a system he performed well in.

On the flip side, Jensen is an aggressive down blocker in a predominantly man-blocking system. Bruce Arians uses combo blocks as much as anyone in the league (duo concept) and Jensen was in gap blocking systems around 65% of the time in 2021 in comparison to the Jets being between 55%-60% zone-based, add it all up and from a run blocking perspective…McGovern is the better scheme fit. Add in that McGovern had the 4th best PFF rating in zone runs amongst centers who had at least 200 snaps and it’s clear.

Long term answer

The elephant in the room here is the long-term stability of the position. I personally think that maintaining consistency at the center position will help Zach Wilson’s development in 2022…but I also want to see the Jets commit to the position. McGovern is only signed through 2022, and there have been no rumblings around the Jets looking to extend the former Denver man.

Signing Jensen to a 3-4 year contract (3 years is more likely because Jensen will be 31 when the season starts in comparison to McGovern being 29) does bring stability, but if you’re willing to commit $13 million/year to Jensen…you should be willing to commit a similar amount to a player who out-performed him in 2021, has knowledge of the system and is younger.

The Jets could role with McGovern in 2022 to keep consistency for Zach and then draft someone like Cole Strange in the hope that he can take over in 2023. If McGovern has another outstanding year you then have an option to extend or franchise tag him to keep him around for 2023.

How much would it improve the Jets in 2022?

The Jets need to make around a 5 win jump in 2022 and trading out McGovern for Jensen just doesn’t move the needle. McGovern was overall, a better center than Jensen was last season, and maintaining consistency is key. We can’t fall into the trap of holding his 2020 season against him, we need to judge him based on the system that we currently operate and it’s a system he’s performed in.

The Jets have a laundry list of needs this off-season, center isn’t one of those. It’s not even the biggest priority in the offensive line meeting room, deciding who’s going to play next to McGovern is a higher priority. McGovern had his best season playing with a rookie QB, in the first year of a system, between a rookie LG and multiple RG’s…imagine what he could potentially do with a 2nd year QB, in the 2nd year of a system with a second-year LG and someone like Laken Tomlinson at RG. We have a team with a lot of breakages, don’t try and fix something that isn’t broken.