Would the Jets trade for Jessie Bates?
Edition #181
Good morning!
Earlier this week I touched on a comment around Jessie Bates and how many fans want to see the Jets try and trade for the disgruntled safety, but is that really a good idea?
The Jets announced that they’d signed Breece Hall to a 3-year $9 million contract, which includes a $3.7 million signing bonus. According to Rich Cimini, the contract took some time based on the third-year guarantees, the Jets have guaranteed 100% of his salary in year three, which is becoming more and more regular.
The July 15 deadline for teams to sign their franchise-tagged players came and went without the Bengals managing to reach an agreement with safety Jessie Bates.
According to multiple reports, Bates and the Bengals were far apart in negotiations and a deal was considered a long shot from the start of discussions.
Ian Rapoport reported that the Bengals offer guaranteed Bates just $4 million more than he’d make on the one-year franchise tag…over the entire length of the contract.
That’s an absolutely scandalous offer and I wouldn’t be surprised if the offer alone has soured the relationship between team and player.
It’s been reported that Bates has absolutely no intention of reporting to camp with the Bengals next week, and he has no intention of playing on the franchise tag either.
This opens up two possibilities. Either he sits out the season and gets fined heavily along the way, or the Bengals entertain trade proposals for the 25-year-old safety.
If the Bengals do start listening to calls, will Joe Douglas pick up the phone? Should he pick up the phone? If he did what would the deal look like?
What does Jessie Bates want?
According to multiple reports over the last two months, Bates wants to be one of the highest-paid safeties in the league.
If that’s the case then let’s just take a look at the top five safety contracts in the league heading into 2022:
Minkah Fitzpatrick: 4-year $72.9 million contract with $36 million guaranteed.
Jamal Adams: 4-year $70 million contract with $21 million guaranteed
Harrison Smith: 4-year $64 million contract with $14.1 million guaranteed
Justin Simmons: 4-year $61 million contract with $32.1 million guaranteed
Budda Baker: 4-year $59 million contract with $22.1 million guaranteed
Looking at that list, I don’t think Bates is touching that Minkah contract but there’s a chance he’s looking for a deal that sits around 4 years, $60 million with $20 million guaranteed.
Is Jessie Bates worth that money?
Let’s just take a look at his career PFF grades:
As you can see he’s been highly inconsistent over the first four years of his career, he’s had one excellent year, one good year, and two very average years. Unfortunately for him, his coverage grade took a plunge in 2021 coming in his contract year and as a deep safety, that’s a key area of his game. It’s also worth noting that his coverage grade got a bump with some good post-season performance, his regular season coverage grade of 53.4 is pretty bad.
He allowed 72.3% of passes into his coverage to be completed, which is a huge jump on his 2020 number of 54.3%, his pass breakups also dropped from 12 to 5, and his interceptions stayed static at 3. In every single metric outside of his tackling grade, he had a poor season by the standards he set in 2020.
His NFL passer rating allowed jumped from 42.3 in 2020 to 108.1 in 2021, back in 2019 it was 94.8.
Even in relation to that tackling grade, he had a 13% missed tackle rate. That number is worse than all the top safeties listed above outside of Budda Baker (13.9%). His career number of 14.4% missed tackles is not ideal for a player looking for top safety money.
The simple fact is I’m not sure who Jessie Bates is in terms of how good a safety he is, because he’s been so incredibly inconsistent. Are you paying for the 2020 version of Bates who performed like one of the best safeties in the league, or are you paying for the 2021/2019 version?
Would Joe Douglas give him that contract?
How much does Joe Douglas value the safety position? That’s a question that will continue to be asked. He didn’t want to pay Jamal Adams, but I wouldn’t want to give a box safety a $70 million contract. He didn’t want to pay Maye, and that’s the most interesting one.
Maye wanted to get paid after the 2020 season, a season where he hit career highs in sacks (2), interceptions (2), pass defenses (11), and tackles (88). Maye was 27 at that point and Bates is 25 now, so there is a two-year gap there, but I think it’s hard to argue that Bates's 2021 season was better than Maye’s 2020 season.
Obviously, you don’t analyze a signing based purely on historical stats, there is a projection element to it. A wise man once said you don’t pay for past performance you pay for future performance, and obviously, the Jets weren’t comfortable giving Maye the kind of money he was looking for.
Fast-forward a year and Maye signed a 3-year $28.5 million contract after missing 11 games last year with different injuries, including a torn Achilles which ended his season.
Joe Douglas has spent money upgrading one safety position by signing Jordan Whitehead to a 2-year $14.5 million deal, so I’m not sure how likely he is to both part with draft picks and then hand out a $60 million contract to a safety.
What would it take to get him?
For all the talk of Jessie Bates, few people have offered up any guidance on what it may take.
A former second-round pick of the Bengals, I think they’d be lucky to recoup that right now considering what’s been said about Bates having absolutely no interest in reporting or playing on the tag…the Bengals don’t have a ton of leverage here.
They either trade him or likely lose him for nothing next off-season. I think it would take something like two 3rd round picks, or maybe a 3rd or 5th pick. Most teams overvalue their players and I’m sure Bengals fans will want at least a 2nd, but negotiation is all about leverage.
Final Thoughts
I would be reluctant to give Bates the kind of money he’s looking for unless it was low in guarantees and packed full of performance incentives. I just don’t know how good he is because he’s so inconsistent.
I also know that the Jets like LaMarcus Joyner a lot and in particular Marquand Manuel the defensive backs and safeties coach is a big believer in Joyner and his potential back at his natural safety position, I’ve heard that from several people independently.
You also need to keep an eye on the 2023 draft, I know it’s too early but the scouting staff have already fed back initial thoughts on some prospects and Joe Douglas will be aware of the depth. I’m talking about guys like Brandon Joseph of Notre Dame (formerly Northwestern), Arkansas’s Jalen Catalon, Texas A&M’s Antonio Johnson and Alabama’s Jordan Battle…just to name a few.
Do not Do Not sign for that kind of money
I agree David to inconsistent to give up value picks and cap space…we got rid of one safety like that lets not make that mistake again