Will McDonald's Emergence

Edition #735

☀️ Good morning! ☕

Sunday is a lot more relaxing when your team has already won. Not something we get to experience all that often.

I saw a lot of rooting guides for the Jets, but for me it’s far too early to even think about that. If we want to make the playoffs we need to handle our own business first.

How Denver do, how Indianapolis do, how the Las Angeles do won’t matter if the Jets go out and lose to Arizona next week.

But for all those who are counting. The Broncos currently hold the final playoff spot in the AFC with a 5-4 record. Then you have the Colts (4-5) and the Bengals (4-5) ahead of the Jets at 3-6.

So yes, the Jets are absolutely still in this. But let’s take it one game at a time, especially when we have a red-hot Arizona next week.

🟢 ESPN spoke to Wayne Chrebet who feels that Garret Wilson’s catch may have saved the season - "Best catch I've ever seen, better than anything I did," said Wayne Chrebet. "I'm jealous, but I think it saved the season."

⚫ Garrett Wilson leads the league with 60 receptions, 3 more than Brock Bowers in second place. He’s the only Jets player to record 60 receptions through the teams first 9 games.

🟢 C. J. Stroud wasn’t very happy after the game - "To come out here on a primetime game and get embarrassed like that is never fun," Stroud said. "We got kicked from Point A to Point Z."

⚫ Despite Haason Reddick holding out, losing Bryce Huff to free agency and losing Jermaine Johnson to injury, the Jets have recorded 31 sacks over the first 9 games, they’ve only had more than that through 9 games once, back in 1981.

🟢 The trade deadline is on the horizon but I’m not sure we’ll see much activity from the Jets. Could Joe Douglas push for an edge setter in the run game? Perhaps. It was expected that the Jets would move Mike Williams, but with Lazard on IR…that no longer sounds likely - "With Lazard playing less, obviously that's a bigger [opportunity] for Mike," interim coach Jeff Ulbrich said, "and, with more opportunities, I think he'll become a bigger part of this offense."

⚫ The Jets will face the Arizona Cardinals next week and Arizona are one of the form teams in the NFL having won 4 of their last 5 games. Their 5-4 on the season and their losses have come against the Packers, Commanders, Lions and Bills. So four good teams. The Jets are going to have to be at their best to beat Arizona.

🟢 "When you play like that, I think it generates confidence and it generates some energy," interim HC Jeff Ulbrich said. "Both those things are going to be integral going forward. There was definitely some hope going into that second half. And when you put it together, it creates a feel that we can really get this done. It is something that I really believe that will carry us forward here."

At the start of the year one of the big discussion points was the development of Will McDonald. With Bryce Huff leaving and Haason Reddick holding out, there was a lot of pressure on his shoulders to deliver in 2024 and he’s repaid that faith.

If you look at week 9 the official box score shows 0 sacks and 1 tackle. On the face of it you’d presume that McDonald made very little difference for the Jets, but when it comes to speed rushers, you have to look at the advanced stats to really understand the value that someone like McDonald brings.

McDonald still needs significant work in the run game but I think Haason Reddick is the perfect mentor for him. Reddick is an elite speed rusher who’s built his reputation based on his ability to get to the QB, and while he’s never been an elite edge setter, he’s also never been a liability, despite what a lot of people would have you believe.

In 2021 his run defense grade was 70.4 in Carolina, then in his two years with the Eagles it’s been 63.4 and 63.7. McDonald right now is at 33.1, but he’s also coming off one his best performances against the run this season (54.4).

Some of the improvement comes with repetition and practice. In a full season someone like Reddick will play between 300-350 snaps against the run, in 8 years in the league Reddick has only surpassed 350 run defense snaps once and that was 368 back in 2018.

McDonald just didn’t play the run last year as the Jets eased him in. McDonald had just 82 reps against the run in 2023 and he’s set to hit around 270 this season if the second half trend repeats the first. McDonald is never going to be an elite edge setter like T.J Watt and Joey Bosa, but he can improve to that Reddick point where he’s not a liability and gets 300-350 run defense snaps a year.

But McDonald isn’t going to build his reputation around the run, he’s a speed rusher and that’s how he’s going to earn both his stripes and his dollars.

If you can impact the game even when you’re not the one bringing the QB down, you’re an extremely valuable member of the team

Take this sack from Jamien Sherwood, on the box score this will show absolutely nothing for Will McDonald, but this sack doesn’t happen without the pressure from #99, forcing Stroud to step up.

That one is as obvious as you get. But you can see it throughout the game. Look how quickly Reddick and McDonald shrink the pocket for Stroud here. Again because everything is closing from the side, the only place he can go is forward…straight into the arms of Solomon Thomas.

McDonald has been doing that all year and he’s also shown better eyes. He doesn’t lose sight of the ball or the QB. He recovered the fumble last week and he made sure to not overcommit on the Clemons sack, forcing Stroud horizontally. It’s a very smart play by McDonald and actually shows his development and maturity as an edge

The Jets moved back into sole possession of 2nd place in the AFC East with their victory combined with the Bills beating the Dolphins and Titans beating the Patriots. After watching parts of the Tennessee/New England game yesterday, I’m still struggling to understand how we lost to that Patriots team. They are absolutely awful.

The Bills have a 4 game lead in the division, so we can forget about catching them.

Here are the fixtures for week 10:

New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals

Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins @ LA Rams

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

First thing is first we need to beat the Cardinals, but we will want a Bills, Rams and Bears to win.