What should the Jets do with Foley Fatukasi?

The defensive tackle is expected to test the market this off-season

🗽 Good morning Jets fans. A month today on March 16th, the new league year will officially start, meaning the start of free agency. Recent reports out of One Jets Drive indicate that Foley Fatukasi will be allowed to hit the open market, what does that mean for the Jets?

Testing the market

🏈 Recent reports have indicated that both Braxton Berrios and Foley Fatukasi will be allowed to test the market. Some consider this to be a sign that the Jets interest in re-signing either is moderate at best, but that’s a sentiment that I don’t agree with. Sometimes allowing a player to hit the open market is designed to establish market value. Some players (agents) think the player is worth X amount, the team thinks he is worth Y amount, the only way to find out is to speak to different teams to establish his market. You then take that back to the team (if you are interested in staying) and go from there.

I think that’s exactly what’s happening with Fatukasi. The defensive tackles market is a little difficult to pen down. Statistically, Foley had career high’s in 2021 with QB Hits (6) and tackles (46), but it was arguably his weakest season since he took on a bigger role in 2019. He had 0 sacks, 0 forced fumbles and his tackles for loss decreased be one from 6 to 5. He also had his lowest PFF run grade in three years, with a dramatic downturn from 86.2 in 2020 to 57.3 in 2021.

What Changed ⁉️

🏈 The eye test matched up with the statistics in terms of it being a down year for Foley against the run. The Jets allowed 138.3 rushing yards per game last season, which was ranked 29th in the league, which is a drastic downturn when you consider the Jets ranked 12th in the league against the run in 2020.

You can’t place responsibility on the shoulders of one man, as defending the run takes a team effort. But the biggest thing that changed in 2021 was a new coaching staff and with that comes a new system. I took a look at the detailed breakdown of where Foley lined up in 2021 in comparison to 2020 and here are the results:

It’s clear as day that Foley was asked to play a slightly different role as part of Robert Saleh’s wide-9 defense. He spent significantly more time lined up as a defensive tackle (BGP) and significantly fewer snaps lined up as a true nose tackle (AGP), his time out side over a tackle (OVT) was pretty static. Saying that, his 2019 numbers look a lot closer to 2021 than they do the 2020 numbers, and he was excellent against the run in 2019 (87.6 PFF Grade), the only difference in 2019 was he spent a career high 90 snaps over tackle.

Robert Saleh’s Defence 💨

For so many years the Jets ran a variation of the 3-4 defense, you’d have to go back to Herm Edwards to find a head coach who operated a base 4-3, there have been times where the jets have run a hybrid but recently they’ve always been known as a 3-4. A nose tackle in a 3-4 is there to eat up space and blockers to allow the linebackers to make the splash plays, a role perfectly suited to the 320lb Fatukasi, and a role that he played perfectly over the last couple of years.

When Robert Saleh rode into town at the start of 2021, we knew there would be significant changes. The most obvious change was moving the Jets to his favoured 4-3 defense, a system that relies heavily on the front four generating a pass rush. One staple of the Saleh defense is a lack of blitzing, the Jets blitzed on 38.4% of drop backs in 2020 under Greg Williams, that was good for the 6th highest mark in football, in 2021 that dropped to 24.8% which ranked just 18th and I’d hypothesise that the Jets did that due to a lack of production from their front four and they’d prefer to be around that San Francisco mark from 2021 (19.8% - 29th in the league).

It would be easy to make the argument that Foley is a better fit in a 3-4 defense as a nose tackle over a 4-3 defensive as a tackle with pass-rush responsibilities. You look at the ideal interior defender in this system and you look at the 2019 version of DeForest Buckner, a 6’7 300lb defender who put up 11 sacks and 46 hurries. You’re never going to get that kind of production from someone like Foley, that’s just not his game. But finding a DeForest Buckner is easier said than done.

The Cost 💰💰

🏈 Can Foley be a success in this system? That’s the question that Joe Douglas needs to find the answer to. According to PFF’s projected contract, Foley is set to earn a three years, $25 million deal ($8.33 million per year, $15 million total guaranteed). If the Foley of 2021 is what we can expect to see going forward in this system, you simply don’t pay that kind of money, it would be foolish. If you think he can adapt and get back to his pre 2021 form in terms of run defense, then it’s a signing that you have to explore.

For the first time in his career, Fatukasi had a better pass rush grade (64.9) than run defense grade (57.3) and that is absolutely down to the schematic changes. The issue there is that if the run defense is going to fall to where he was in 2021 (40th ranked interior defender against the run based on a minimum snap count of 100), then you may as well look to upgrade with someone who offers more in relation to pass-rush.

Conclusion 🤔

🏈 As much as I like Foley, a man born and bread in Queens NY and a 6th round steal in the draft out of Uconn, I don’t think the Jets can pay over $8 million a year to someone who’s a questionable scheme fit. We may see John Franklin-Myers move inside next season if the Jets can find more edge rushers and JFM possessed the best run-defense grade among Jets lineman in 2021 (75.5). With Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins both signed through 2022, if JFM is added to the mix with 2nd year pro Jonathan Marshall, the Jets are likely set at the position and can use that money to strengthen other areas of the team. I wouldn’t actually be that surprised if we saw someone like Sheldon Richardson make a return on a low cost one year deal worth $2-3 million.

Report: Jets looking to replace Ashtyn Davis

🏈 According to a recent article by the Athletic’s Connor Hughes the Jets are “actively” looking to replace starting safety Ashtyn Davis just two years into his Jets career.

This shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anyone who’s watched the Jets over the last two years. The former Cal product has missed 10 games through his first two years and has consistently looked raw when on the field.

Ashtyn is still on a team friendly rookie deal and there is hope within the organisation that he can progress and develop his skills, but the Jets know that they need consistent safety play in this defense and that’s something that Davis doesn’t offer.

The issue with Davis is that he takes poor angles to the football and can be a liability when it comes to tackling. In 2021 Davis had a missed tackle % of 12.9% which would put him outside the top 50 (for players who played at least 500 snaps), which is a huge issue for Saleh and the Jets. Robert Saleh is used to working with guys like Jimmie Ward who led the league last year with a 2.2% missed tackle rate. Second in the league in terms of missed tackle %? Soon to be free agent Jayron Kearse who I’m confident the Jets will be interested in.

Davis also ranked as the 4th worst safety in terms of completion % against with QB’s able to complete 80% of passes when targeting him. We all knew that Davis was a project, and the Jets shouldn’t give up on trying to develop him…but you should always look for upgrades where possible and that’s exactly what the Jets will do.

LDT wants to return to Jets in 2022 👨‍⚕️

🏈 The Draft Network had a fantastic interview with Jets guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif where the Dr outlined his desire to be a Jet in 2022:

LDT: I am definitely hoping to play for the Jets in 2022. I could talk about it for a long time but for me, I really enjoyed playing in an offense that best suited my strengths as a player.  That’s a big deal to me. I loved playing with those guys in the locker room. I feel I add value to the team both on and off the field. It’s a young team and I feel like I possess the experience necessary to help us. It represents the best fit for me.

He touched on a number of topics like the system that MLF wants to run, the coaching style of Robert Saleh and the improvements seen in the Jets offense over the second half of the season. It’s well worth a read.