What can 2021 teach us about positional draft value?
If we focus on the 2021 season, can we gain any insights into which positions we should target early in the draft.
Good morning Jets fans and welcome to Wednesday’s edition of TJW. With the Super Bowl just around the corner, we’re only a few days away from everyone’s focus being on free agency and the draft. As we get close to free agency we’ll switch our focus there, but for the moment we’re going to continue to concentrate on the draft.
If you talk about the draft for more than 5 minutes, there is one phrase that you’re sure to hear. “You can’t take *insert position* there because of positional value”. That always gets me thinking, what is the evidence to back it up?
In my mind, I have some pre-conceptions around positional value and the draft. Don’t draft a running back in the first round, if you need a tackle take one as high as you can and you don’t need to draft a safety early.
Now there have to be some caveats in all of this. Not everyone in the NFL runs the same system, so while a shutdown corner like Jalen Ramsey is key to what the Rams do defensively to take away half of the field, the Jets don’t use that kind of system and as such don’t put as premium a price on the CB position.
I thought it would be a fun and interesting exercise to pick out the top 10 players at each position from the 2021 season and then chart where they were drafted to get a sense of which positions you should be targeting with premium selections.
If you’re in the top 10 at any position, you tend to be very good to elite, so we’re only focusing on the best of the best here, after all, isn’t that what you should be hoping to uncover with your premium draft picks? Nobody is looking to get average production from a #4 overall selection.
For me, there are no real surprises there outside the performance of 7th round tackle Jordan Mailata over in Philadelphia. If you want a great QB you’re going to need to pay the premium draft price of him and when you get him, you better pay a premium to protect him. 70% of QB’s in the top 10 last year were first-round picks and 90% of the tackles protecting them were what I’d call premium selections (1st or 2nd rounders).
The only positional group to not have a player drafted in the first round is center with Creed Humphrey leading the way as a 2nd round selection and the #1 rated center in football. I’m not sure what that says about the value of Tyler Linderbaum when you consider that only 10% of the top centers were taken with a premium selection and 50% were taken in the 5th round or later.
If you were to just look at this as an exercise in which you focused on ranking which positions to target with your premium selections then it would look like this. Again, this is a small sample size and as such is a fun exercise rather than a conclusive data study:
Offensive Tackle (90%)
Quarterback (70%)
Wide Receiver (70%)
Tight End (60%)
Offensive Guard (50%)
Running Back (40%)
Center (10%)
It also shows how much the league values passing. But that’s something we already knew.
So now let’s turn our focus to the defensive side of the ball. I’ve grouped these into five main categories, mainly because positons are more fluid on the defensive side of the ball.
Like the offensive side of the ball, I’m not sure there are any huge surprises in here outside of cornerback. I thought there would be a higher propensity of premium picks on that position, but with just 4 making the cut as premium selections, it’s the lowest-ranked position based on the 2021 season, but the 3rd ranked when it comes to first-round picks.
No surprise that 90% of edge defenders were taken with premium selections, the easiest way to win in a passing league outside of having a good passing attack, is to stop the opposition passing attack.
On both sides of the football, Joe Douglas’s philosophy that you win in the trenches seems to coincide with what GM’s value in the draft. 90% of the elite tackles in football last year were taken with premium picks, 90% of elite edge defenders and 70% of interior defenders were taken using premium selections.
Ranking these prospects in order as we did with the offensive guys, you’d get the following:
Edge Defenders (90%)
Interior Defenders (70%)
Linebackers (50%)
Safeties (50%)
Cornerbacks (40%)
What does this all mean I hear you say? Probably nothing. But let’s just put them all into a list because it’s February and we’ve got nothing better to do with our time as we wait for the off-season to really kick into gear:
Edge Defender (90%)
Offensive Tackle (90%)
Interior Defender (70%)
Quarterback (70%)
Wide Receiver (70%)
Tight End (60%)
Offensive Guard (50%)
Linebacker (50%)
Safety (50%)
Cornerback (40%)
Running Backs (40%)
Center (10%)
So if you want to stick to this small sample size study for your 2022 draft philosophy, you take your trench guys first, then you prioritize your receiving weapons and middle secondary level defense, before finally turning your attention to running the ball and then snapping it.
Prospect Snippet: Boye Mafe
At the bottom of every newsletter between now and the draft, I’m going to add a small snippet about a draft prospect the Jets could be interested in. Today it’s Boye Mafe, an edge rusher from Minnesota who’s coming off a fine week at the Senior Bowl.
While in Alabama Maye won 45% of his pass rush contests during practice and 41% in the game itself according to PFF, which is remarkable.
I commented a while ago that I love Mafe’s first step, it’s lightning quick. My main concern is he largely played standing up at Minnesota and he looked more suited to the 3-4 OLB slot. In Mobile, he rushed from a 3-point stance and he looked great doing it.
He had 6 sacks and 9 tackles for a loss in 2021 and he’s still only scratching the surface of his potential.
Quick scouting report:
Mafe has everything you want but he just needs to do everything more consistently. His motor is always hot, but he can struggle to use his length to disengage in the run game, his hand counters are good but again, not consistent. I see him as a situational pass-rusher in year one with the ability to be an every-down starter in year 2-3.
+ Quickness, Athleticism, Length, Closing Speed, Motor, Agility, Hand Counters
- Consistency, Block Shredding, Hand Power
Projected Round: Middle 2nd to Middle 3rd