Tua Time?

Edition #1042: Welcome to the last weekend before free agency. By this time next week we'll be profiling some new players, will one of them be a QB?

Good Morning! ☕

I’ve been putting off writing about Tua Tagovailoa because I really don’t see a world where he’s playing for the NY Jets.

But yesterday we heard that the Jets were doing some homework on Tua courtesy of NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. That’s a respectable analyst so I have to believe there is some truth in it.

It could be the Jets doing due diligence for when he is eventually released, a decision that would cost the Dolphins over $99 million in dead cap. The Dolphins can push $32 million of that dead money into 2027 by making him a post June-1st cut. But there are plenty of people arguing that based on how much you’d need to pay for him to not be on your team, you may as well keep him.

But despite the heavy cap hit, he is expected to be released before the 3rd day of the new league year, so just under a week from today.

So there is a QB about to hit the market, of course the Jets are connected. But does it make sense in any logical world?

Finances 💰

As with Kyler Murray, this is the pretty straight forward. Because Tua will still be getting paid a lot from Miami, he can sign a contract for the vet minimum which will be $1.3 million. He obviously doesn’t have to but many expect Kyler to sign on for the vet minimum, so I imagine Tua would too. So $1.3 million for any QB is a bit of a steal, $1.3 million for a guy who’s started 76 games is excellent value.

Injury Issues 🤕

Probably one of the bigger hurdles for Tua is that he’s one concussion away from a serious problem. He has suffered 3 documented concussions but that number is probably higher. His father has publicly backed his decision to continue playing but several former players and analysts have advised him to walk away from the game before it forces him to turn around.

2025 Performance 🗓️

Tua struggled through one of his worst pro seasons in 2025 and was eventually benched for Quinn Ewers after going 6-8 as a starter. He averaged under 200 passing yards/game (190) for the first time since his rookie year, threw 15 interceptions against 20 touchdowns and had the lowest QBR (37.5) of his career, not that I rate that stat as a measuring stick. If you looked at his entire career and then worked out a 17 game average it would be a big positive in his favour, 68% completion for 3,959 yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. But this is what have you done for me recently league.

Is he a Frank Reich QB? 🤔

Not really. He’s just 6’1 and isn’t comfortable playing under centre. The Dolphins had one of the highest usage %’s of shotgun last year including in situations where under centre snaps are preferred (1-2 yard to go). But, that Dolphin offense was heavily timing based, RPO heavy and Tua was excellent in play-action last year completing 74.6% of his passes for 7 TDs and 2 INT’s. So in terms of build he’s not a Reich QB at all, but there are elements to his game that would suit a Reich offense, which is probably why the Jets are doing their homework.

Can he play in the cold? 🥶