Top 5 Jets Fantasy Options

Edition #172

Good morning!

Carolina likes trading for disappointing QBs don’t they, a year after trading for Sam Darnold they’ve acquired Baker Mayfield from the Browns.

Although Mayfield is certainly more accomplished than Darnold if you base it on the stats alone. Getting him for 2024 5th round pick with the Browns picking up $10.5 million of Mayfield's 2022 salary ($18 million) is a bit of a bargain.

Enough about Mayfield and the Panthers, let’s get into some Jets news.

ESPN released their top 10 defensive tackles today based on a survey of 50 league executives, coaches, and players. Quinnen Williams did receive some votes, but not enough to make it onto the top 10 list or honorable mention list. No surprise that Aaron Donald was top of the list, closely followed by Jeffery Simmons of the Titans and Chris Jones of the Chiefs. The AFC East didn’t have representation within the top 10, but like Quinnen, Christian Wilkins of the Dolphins received some votes.

ESPN also released their veteran cut candidates for each team with Rich Cimini picking Denzel Mims as a potential roster casualty. I guess I don’t really consider Mims as a veteran considering he’s only two years into his career and struggled last year with health. I think it’s fair to say that Mims is on the bubble, even if he has impressed this off-season but if I were asked for a veteran name that may not make the roster, my instant response would be Vinny Curry based on the depth along the defensive line.

If you’re anything like me, you’re probably starting to have conversations around fantasy draft dates. I’m by no means a fantasy football expert, but here are five Jets players I’ll be targeting at certain points in the draft.

I’m not going to spend much time this season talking fantasy football as I appreciate not everyone plays it, but considering we’re in July and nothing is happening…I thought now was as good a time as any.

1. Elijah Moore - Wide Receiver

If Moore stays healthy throughout the 2022 season, I think he has the potential to be a 1200-1400 yard receiver and 10 TD guy. He has absolutely everything, but his short-area quickness and route running will get him open and get him targets.

From week 7 to week 13 last season, Moore was rated as the 4th best wide receiver in terms of fantasy production. It took the Jets until around week 7 to really understand how to use him and week 13 was when he got injured. The 4th best wide receiver in all of football, ahead of guys like Mike Evans, Stefan Diggs, and Chris Godwin.

There is an upper echelon of receivers starting with Cooper Kupp, but just under that is where I place Elijah Moore and I would have no hesitation in drafting him as my WR1 for fantasy purposes this season.

He will have to fight for those targets with Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis, and Braxton Berrios but he is the most talented receiver on the roster as of today and I see no reason why he can’t take that sample size between weeks 7-13 and produce at that rate over an entire season.

If there is just one Jets player you can feel confident about drafting, it’s Elijah Moore.

1. Breece Hall - Running Back

Rookie running backs don’t tend to experience the same kind of adjustment period as other position groups, Najee Harris and Javonte Williams were both inside the top 20 in terms of fantasy production last season and I expect to see Breece Hall do exactly the same in 2021.

Michael Carter does muddy the waters a little as Hall will be in a timeshare for touches and at least for the short term I expect that share to be pretty close to 50-50 through the first portion of the schedule. The risk here is that MLF is the kind of guy who will run the hot hand, and we saw last year that Michael Carter has the potential to really have a hot hand, so you could have some duds from Hall along the way.

However, Hall has absolutely everything you want in a running back at the NFL level when it comes to fantasy production. He has the speed, power, and receiving ability to make plays from anywhere on the field, and he has home run potential on every touch. Last year both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon ended up in the top 20 players for fantasy production while sharing snaps in Denver and I wouldn’t bet against that happening again here with the Jets.

We know the Jets want to run the football and they’ve continued to improve the offensive line to allow them to do that…we also know that Zach is being coached to take what’s given to him when the situation calls for it, so I expect a fair few targets out of the backfield, so there is value here for PPR leagues as well.

1. Corey Davis - Wide Receiver

I thought about having Garrett Wilson here, but I’m always cautious of taking rookie wide receivers unless it’s someone like Ja’Marr Chase going to play with a guy like Joe Burrow, that was as close to a sure thing as you can get with rookies.

Corey Davis was the 64th ranked receiver last season in terms of fantasy production with 71.2 points, but that number was based on just 9 games played, if you use his average instead of his total, he was the 38th best receiver, still not great…but as a streaming option and WR4 on most rosters…I think there is wiggle room here.

Jumpy back to 2020 and he was the 29th ranked wide receiver in football in terms of fantasy production and while there will be a lot of mouths to feed in New York this season, the ability underneath of Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore should open up some deep shot opportunities, he showed that deep ability against Tennessee last season.

2021 didn’t go the way Davis wanted it to, but his drop rate was an aberration and significantly higher than his career average, so logic would indicate that will fall in 2022, he’s also playing for his Jets future based on his contract running out of guarantees in 2023, and you know how certain players perform in contract years.

If you only play in a 2 receiver league then I would bypass Davis, but if you play in a 3/4 wide receiver league then he’s worth stashing on the roster.

1. Tyler Conklin - Tight End

The Jets TE room is a really tough one to unravel considering the talent available. Not only did the Jets sign two good free agents in Conklin and Uzomah but they drafted Jeremy Ruckert, who they’ll want to get onto the field.

In the same way I wouldn’t hesitate to take Mark Andrews from Baltimore even with the additions of Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely, I’m not going to hesitate to take Tyler Conklin with the Jets.

The snap share between Conklin and Uzomah will be interesting to monitor in the early weeks of the season, but I expect the Jets to play a lot of 12 personnel, especially in the red-zone opening up opportunities for both players to gain important fantasy targets.

Uzomah was the 17th ranked tight end in football last season with 79.3 points and Conklin wasn’t far behind at 19th with 77.3 points. I wouldn’t target either as my TE one, but I play in a two-TE league so my strategy will be to bag a premier option early and then pick up Conklin at the bottom of the draft to round out the position group.

It’s only OTAs but Conklin has been the more impressive of the two and if that continues he’ll be the choice.

1. Zach Wilson - Quarterback

I know what you’re thinking, why on earth would you target a player who was statistically one of the worst performers at the position a year ago…it’s a very valid argument. His 162.86 fantasy points last season ranked 30th in the NFL for quarterbacks, and if you’re in a one-QB league you’re probably not touching him.

My main league is a 2 QB league with 10 teams, so if you think Zach will be a top 25 performer he’s worth stashing on the roster. His stats are based on 13 games, all of which came as a rookie learning a highly complicated system and some of which came with a depleted roster.

2022 should be night and day for Zach with a re-tooled offense, a powerful run game, and a better understanding of the offense. The Jets have surrounded him with talent from the offensive line to the RBs, WRs, and TEs. He has big body targets in Conklin, Ruckert, and Uzomah which should increase his red-zone productivity.

He’s not going to hit the Josh Allen heights of 417.58 points next season, but if he hits a Jimmy Garropolo like 239.50 (17th best) he’ll be worth having in 2 QB leagues and probably worth streaming with the right matchup, I’m looking at games against the Bears, Lions, and Jaguars as perfect opportunities.