Thursday Night Special: Colts Preview
The Jets are heading on the road to face the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday, looking to maintain the momentum of Sunday's win against the Bengals.
🗽 Good morning Jets fans. It’s that time of the week where we get to preview the upcoming opponent. The Jets are riding into Indianapolis full of confidence after upsetting the Bengals on Sunday 34-31. Can the Jets start a mini-win streak with a victory over the Colts? Let’s get into it.
🏈 Game Day 🏈
Who: New York Jets @Indianapolis Colts
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
When: 8:20 pm EST - Thursday 4th November
Head to Head: 75 games, 32 wins, 43 losses
Offensive Ranking:
Points (Jets 32, Colts 11)
Total Yards (Jets 30, Colts 12th)
Passing (Jets 30th, Colts 18th)
Rushing (Jets 32nd, Colts 8th)
Defensive Ranking:
Points (Jets 27th, Colts 19th)
Total Yards (Jets 18th, Colts 20th)
Passing (Jets 17th, Colts 20th)
Rushing (Jets 11th, Colts 17th)
Turnovers:
Differential (Jets -10, Colts +8)
Defensive Interceptions (Jets 1, Colts 9)
Offensive interceptions (Jets 13, Colts 4)
Injuries
Expert Picks
The Colts Offense
Passing
🏈I do think that the Colts’ offense is much better than their 3-5 record would indicate. They have a number of players who can hurt you on the offensive side of the ball, and it starts with the Quarterback who’s played within himself so far this season.
When the Colts traded for Wentz sending a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick to the Eagles, the former Pro Bowler came with a clear warning, may infuriate you and lose you games trying to play hero ball.
Wentz was coming off a 2020 season where he threw a career-high 15 interceptions against a joint career low of just 16 touchdowns. And while we saw a little of the old Wentz against the Titans on Sunday throwing two costly picks, Carson has largely looked after the ball. He’s thrown just 3 interceptions against 14 touchdowns.
I’ve taken a look at a few games from Wentz in preparation for this post and personally, I think he’s played really well. He’s feeling pressure and stepping up well, his mechanics look sound, he’s not forcing the ball and his reading of defenses is as good as I’ve ever seen it.
Another positive for Wentz is he’s spreading the ball around to different receivers. The Colts have an outstanding X receiver in Michael Pittman JR who’s caught 45 balls for 594 yards and 4 touchdowns so far this year, and he’s the most targeted player on the team receiving 22 more targets than the next guy up, Zach Pascal.
There are seven different Colts who have had at least 15 targets this season and Jonathan Taylor out of the backfield is a dangerous runner with the ball in his hands, which is evidenced by his team-leading 295 yards after the catch.
The Colts also have two tight ends who are capable of hurting you if you don’t give them the respect they deserve. Mo Alie-Cox already has 4 touchdowns on the season to go with Jack Doyles 1. Let’s hope we don’t leave any defensive lineman covering them in the red zone.
Rushing
🏈 The Colts have one of the very best runners in pro-football in Jonathan Taylor. The former Wisconsin Badger has been nothing short of excellent since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft.
After finishing his rookie season with over 1000 yards rushing and 11 TD’s, Taylor is on pace to break those marks having already racked up 649 yards and 6 TD’s on the ground to go with 265 yards and a TD through the air. Taylor does lead the team with 3 drops on 25 targets, but his vision makes him dangerous.
The Colts like the Jets often run a lot of zone runs, in particular inside zone runs and their offensive lineman are adept at getting to the second level and putting the clamps on linebackers. As well as one of the better offensive lines in the league led by my favorite player in the league (Quenton Nelson), the Colts also have one of the better run-blocking tight ends in the league in Jack Doyle.
Indianapolis likes to use a lot of wham blocks in their running game, which is where a skill player moves behind and across the line to block an interior rusher. They run Doyle here frequently and it works incredibly well due, mainly thanks to Jonathan Taylor and his vision to cut.
Behind Taylor the Colts do have two very capable backups in Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, although I am writing this before the trade deadline and some people expect Mack to be moved at some point.
Offensive Line
🏈 The Colts offensive line is one of the best run-blocking units in football. Even with the loss of left tackle Anthony Castonzo to retirement, the unit is still a force on the ground.
It’s led by left guard Quenton Nelson and right tackle Braden Smith who returned from injury to face the Titans. Former Chiefs tackle Eric Fisher has done exceptionally well at left tackle and Ryan Kelly is still playing at a high level anchoring the line.
In pass protection, the unit is more up and down. They only allowed one sack against Tennessee but that was largely thanks to Wentz getting rid of the ball. They allowed 7 QB hits on the day which is a high number for any offensive line, let alone one wanting to be considered the best in the league.
On the season as a whole and as a complete offense, the Colts have allowed 13 sacks and 114 pressures, so the Jets could get some run with their pass-rush.
Offensive Coordinator - Marcus Brady
🏈 Although Brady is officially the offensive coordinator, the play-calling duty sits with Head Coach Frank Reich, who took the blame for the loss against the Titans after he called a screen pass with the colts backed up in their own half. The principles of a Frank Reich offense are usually predicated on getting the ball to their players within 5 yards of the LOS and relying on yards after the catch. Nearly 60% of all Wentz’s passing attempts this year have been from behind the line to 10 yards.
Although like all good offensive coordinators should, he has adapted his scheme for Wentz who has found good success throwing down the field. He’s had 4 touchdowns this year that have traveled at least 20 yards.
The Colts Defense
🏈 The Colts felt good heading into the game against the Titans, as healthy as the defense has been all year, and as the old saying goes, the best ability is availability.
Unfortunately for the Colts, that good feeling of health didn’t last long. Before half time Tyquan Lewis was carted to the locker room with what looked like a serious injury, after the game it was revealed that Lewis would miss the rest of the season due to a knee injury, which is a huge blow considering the progress he was showing in 2021.
Pass Defense
🏈 Lewis wasn’t the only injury on Sunday, the Colts also lost safety Khari Willis to a calf injury, and with Willis being a DNP on Monday, he may end up missing the Jets game as well which would further hinder a secondary that has shown signs of being exploited.
The Colts may have got starting corner Rock Ya-Sin back but Ryan Tannehill and A.J Brown consistently beat the coverage on Sunday. Xavier Rhodes has been struggling early, as has Kenny Moore II.
Indianapolis is currently giving up 243.6 yards per game and they do have a small issue with missed tackles, the Colts as a defensive unit have missed 67 tackles on the season, which is higher than the Jets and we’ve had our fair share of missed tackles.
When you look at the effort here by Xavier Rhodes, you can see why they’re had so many…
The secondary will need to be helped by the defensive line, and fortunately for the Colts they have one of the better interior pass rushers in the league in DeForest Buckner who’s recorded 4 sacks and 17 rushes so far.
Outside of the Buckner, now that Lewis is out for the season, there are no other Colts who the Jets should fear come Thursday night and if we see Mike White continue to get the ball out of his hands quickly, we should be OK.
Both Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke are decent coverage linebackers and Leonard in particular is a player who gets all over the field, but Crowder, Moore and Carter should see success against them.
Rush Defense
🏈 Indianapolis are currently allowing 108.8 yards per game on the ground which is right around the Jets and right around the middle of the pack.
Grover Stewart does a nice job inside, but it’s the linebackers that come up and play the run well. Darius Leonard is good at spotting and plugging gaps that open, and when it’s not the linebackers it’s safety Julian Blackmon, who’s one of the better run defenders at his position.
They are coming off a superb performance against Derrick Henry, arguably the best running back in the league, and while he was playing injured for the majority of the game, the Colts still restricted him to just 2.4 yards per carry. Whereas the week before they allowed 107 yards (5.9 yards per carry) to Eli Mitchell and the 49’ers, who run a similar style to the Jets.
Like with much of the Colts team this year, their rush defense is a little hit and miss.
Defensive Coordinator - Matt Eberfluss
🏈 Eberfluss has been a name floated in head coaching cycles over the last year or two, and many expect him to move on up within the next couple of years.
His defensive philosophy is heavily reliant on zone coverage where he gives his players the license to see the ball and attack the ball.
As a base defense the Colts run a 4-3 scheme and utilize press corners with a cover 2 shell. But calling the Colts a cover-2 team is a little misleading as Eberfluss relies on positional flexibility so much and the team switch into different looks and variations, including a cover-3 that we know so well here with the Jets.
Eberfluss and the Colts also run a cover-3 match scheme that incorporates some man and some zone into the same play. It’s an interesting one to watch.
Star Player
Jonathan Taylor
🏈 It really can only be one man here and that’s 2nd-year runner Jonathan Taylor.
As I mentioned in the segments above, Taylor has a little bit of everything, but it’s his cutting ability and his vision that separate him from the pack.
He’s 2nd in the league in yards after contact behind Derrick Henry, so he also has that strength in his base, he’s also top 5 in missed tackles forced.
When you add that he can be a receiving threat out of the backfield, you have yourself a well-rounded player. The only hole in his game is his pass protection, if he can improve that he’ll be on the field more on 3rd down and that will lead to more pass-catchers.
That’s going to do it for today’s edition. Enjoy the game tonight and hopefully we’re recapping another victory tomorrow.