The Stat Pack: Steelers

Edition #235

☀️ Good morning!

This weekend the Jets will have the opportunity to go 3-2 for the first time since 2017, they’ll also have the opportunity to pin back a divisional opponent. Before we get to that point though we need to review the stats from Sunday’s game.

You know what day it is, it’s the day I get my nerd on with a bumper pack of stats. Tuesday’s edition always tends to be the most read, so if you love the stats don’t forget to share it with your Jet friends.

Before we get into the stats we’re going to cover some Jets-related news. I also wanted to give a shout-out to Knicks Film School with the new NBA season about to begin, and Mets Fix with playoff baseball just around the corner. TJW wouldn’t be a thing if it wasn’t for the advice and support of those two newsletters headed up by Jonathan Macri and Jeffrey Bellone - So I always like to give support wherever possible.

👍 The Jets received some relatively good news in relation to the injury to Max Mitchell. When the tackle was carted off many feared he’d be done for the season but according to Ian Rapoport he should be back this season despite suffering a dislocation.

🐬 Big news for the game this weekend as Mike McDaniel ruled Tua out with the Dolphins QB working his way through the concussion protocol. The Jets will face Teddy Bridgewater.

🤕 Coach Saleh confirmed that the team would evaluate Tackle Duane Brown on Wednesday to see if he was able to practice and be ready for this weekend. This is purely instinct, but I just didn't get the impression that he believed Brown would be good to go.

🙌 Saleh also confirmed that AVT had been working out after practice at left tackle just in case the Jets needed him there. Obviously, the Jets 2nd year man started at LT this weekend and did an outstanding job throughout. Saleh went on to say that the Jets would start their 5 best players, seemingly leaving the door open for AVT to spend some more time at tackle.

To start this week off we’re going to get straight into the DVOA and see what Football Outsiders have to say about your New York Jets. I’ll then put in brackets their ranking from last week as a comparison measure.

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

Team DVOA: 26th (+3 on last week)
Team Offense: 23rd (-4 on last week)
Team Defense: 25th (+7 on last week)
Special Teams: 2nd (+5 on last week)

Most of the statistics are going in the right direction. Obviously, the one that trended the wrong way was the offense, I’m not too worried about that as there were some growing pains with Zach making his debut and a couple of turnovers will hurt any ranking algorithm. Had it not been for the last drive it would have been even worse.

Here’s a quick drive summary as a refresher before we get into the offense.

Offense

Quarterback

Zach Wilson made a very welcome return to the huddle with the Jets this week so we’re going to jump straight into his performance. It wasn’t perfect by any means and there is still a lot to work on, but considering it was his first start and he was working behind a patchwork line, I personally thought he did well. Let’s have a look at the stats.

36 attempts, 18 completions, 252 yards, 50% completion. 1 TD, 2 INT.
4 Turnoverworthy plays. 4 Drops by receivers (18.2% drop rate)

Wilson worked the middle of the field perfectly, completing 8-10 passes for 143 yards, his accuracy between 10-20 yards across the board was excellent. There are still a few issues short right, with Wilson often putting too much mustard on his passes and leading his receivers too much on swing passes, but confident we’ll get that cleaned up.

Offensive Line

Right now I feel sorry for the coaches, the players, and the GM. You just can’t project the team losing numerous players at one position group. Things got to such a sorry state we had our offensive tackle 5 playing right tackle and our starting right guard playing left tackle, and we still won. That’s impressive to me and I know they weren’t perfect as you’ll see below, but a lot of credit has to go to the players.

Zach did a great job avoiding a lot of pressure and extending plays, but due to the extending of plays and his willingness to leave it to the last second to either get rid of the ball or try and complete a pass, I’m expecting the below chart to be under league average most week. This chart shows how far away each player was from the QB when he released the ball, and as you can see, all were closer than the league average.

The chart above is courtesy of NFL NextGen Stats and the below is the offensive line performance according to PFF.

Alijah Vera-Tucker - 0 sacks, 3 pressures, 96.3 pass-block efficiency, 47.0 run-block
Laken Tomlinson - 0 sacks, 2 pressures, 97.6 pass-block efficiency, 41.0 run-block
Connor McGovern - 0 sacks, 0 pressures, 100.0 pass-block efficiency, 41.9 run-block
Nate Herbig - 0 sacks, 3 pressures, 96.3 pass block efficiency, 57.1 run-block
Max Mitchell - 0 sacks, 4 pressures, 88.2 pass block efficiency, 58.3 run-block
Connor McDermott - 0 sacks, 2 pressures, 95.8 pass block efficiency, 66.2 run-block

Interestingly they attributed the one sack allowed directly to Wilson rather than a blocker. You have to give huge credit to AVT who came in and played left tackle in the NFL and put up an outstanding performance. I think the run block grade on Herbig is a little low, but I’d need to watch it back to really find out. Connor McGovern also had a great game in pass protection, but the entire line struggled to move the Steelers off the ball in the run game.

Receivers

I’m still trying to get a good understanding of how the Jets envision the use of their receivers, and that includes the two main tight ends. Uzomah is a good receiving tight end, but he’s just not getting the targets. Moore had a good first half but disappeared in the second, Wilson had a couple of good plays but was quieter than we have come to expect. I was happy to see Davis get more involved because I’m always a believer in the use of a big-bodied receiver.

Part of the issue yesterday was the play of the Steelers secondary, especially the safety Fitzpatrick who had himself a good game. Again I would ignore the Conklin number as tight ends will often be in a lot of space because they leak out after blocking, but:

This shows that Wilson struggled to gain separation yesterday whereas Davis and Moore were both above league average. It’s not overly surprising that Davis was a favored target looking at the above graph. Now if we look at the detailed receiving stats we can see who got looks from Zach.

Zach Wilson - 1 target, 1 reception, 2 yards, 1 TD, 0-0 on contested catches
Corey Davis - 6 targets, 5 receptions, 74 yards, 1 TD, 1-1 on contested catches
Tyler Conklin - 5 targets, 3 receptions, 52 yards, 1 drop, 0-0 on contested catches
Elijah Moore - 3 targets, 3 receptions, 53 yards, 0-0 on contested catches
Braxton Berrios - 1 target, 1 reception, 6 yards, 0-0 on contested catches
Garrett Wilson - 6 targets, 2 receptions, 41 yards, 1 drop 0-2 on contested catches
Jeff Smith - 1 target, 0 receptions
Michael Carter - 2 targets, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 1-1 on contested catches
Breece Hall - 6 targets, 2 receptions, 12 yards, 0-1 on contested catches

Here are the stats according to PFF, I thought Moore had 4 targets personally but for consistency, I’m going to go with their numbers. It’s interesting that Hall is slowly becoming the #1 receiving back and I think a lot of that has to do with his pass blocking. Neither are asked to stay in and block much (5 combined snaps pass protecting between them) but it seems the Jets wanted to get the ball in the hands of Breece more yesterday. Unfortunately, Zach had a few issues on those shallow passes and that’s the reason for the 2 receptions on 6 targets.

Running Game

One consistent so far this year has been the Jets inability to really get any push in the run game. We had our moments yesterday and I remember one where Herbig worked to the second level and sealed the linebacker to spring Hall, but we fail to do it on a consistent basis. That is to be expected however considering we have not started the same 5 offensive lineman for an entire game, it’s near impossible to generate consistency when you’re constantly chopping and changing.

Breece Hall - 17 carries, 66 yards, 3.9 YPA, 1 TD, 1 missed tackle forced, 44 yards after contact
Micheal Carter - 9 carries, 15 yards, 1.7 YPA, 2 missed tackles forced, 24 yards after contact

Nothing says an inability to do anything in the run game like one of your running backs having more yards after contact than actual yards. That just means that Carter was getting him in the backfield before he even got back to the line. That’s a huge problem, if we can get a settled line for even a few games I think we’ll see this improve.

Defense

Pass Rush

The talk around the snap counts of our top defensive lineman won’t be going anywhere anytime soon. Quinnen again played just over 60% of snaps, he dominated when in the game which brings us back around to the point of whether he could take over the game if given the chance. I’m still in the camp of play your best players as much as possible, when Quinnen leaves the field we become a lot easier to play. I’m not saying he needs to be up at 95% like Aaron Donald, but he should be at or around 80%. I’m going to look at this in more detail this week.

Carl Lawson didn’t explode on the box score, but he was a menace all afternoon. He got his sack and contributed to collapsing the pocket and opening up lanes for his teammates. In a similar way to how Corey impacts the offense even when he’s not making a play that will be recorded, Lawson does that on the defensive side of the ball. The fastest sack of the day for the Jets came courtesy of Jermaine Johnson who recorded his sack in 3.9 seconds.

PRP: A formula that combines sacks, hits, and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer

Quinnen Williams - 3 pressures, 1 sack, 9.5 PRP, 9.5% win percentge, 70.6 pass-rush grade
Bryce Huff - 3 pressures, 16.7 PRP, 44.4% win percentage, 77.6 pass-rush grade
Micheal Clemons - 2 pressures, 12.5 PRP, 12.5% win percentage, 52.7 pass-rush grade
Carl Lawson - 2 pressures, 1 sack, 6.8 PRP, 13.6% win percentage, 62.6 pass-rush grade
Jermaine Johnson - 1 pressure, 1 sack, 12.5PRP, 25% win percentage, 67.6 pass-rush grade
Jacob Martin - 1 pressure, 7.1 PRP, 14.3% win percentage, 53.1 pass-rush grade
JFM - 1 pressure, 3.1 PRP, 6.3% win percentage, 54.8 pass-rush grade

Nathan Shephard, Solomon Thomas, and Sheldon Rankins failed to register a pressure in their pass rush snaps. One thing worth mentioning here is that Huff generated 3 pressures on just 9 pass-rushing snaps, when someone has the beating of his man like that you have to put him in the game more. Johnson got his sack even though he rushed the passer just 10 times, increasing those opportunities for both players will likely result in good things.

It also does frustrate me that Huff has been inactive through the first three weeks of the season. Let’s just take a look at the % of defensive snaps each defensive lineman was in for:

Quinnen Williams - 61%
Carl Lawson - 53%
Sheldon Rankins - 50%
John Franklin-Myers - 48%
Jacob Martin - 38%
Solomon Thomas - 36%
Jermaine Johnson - 34%
Nathan Shepherd - 34%
Micheal Clemons - 25%
Bryce Huff - 14%

Run Defense

It’s always difficult to adapt in game when a team goes from a largely static quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky to one with plenty of wiggle like Kenny Pickett. The Steelers also happen to have a decent line and a very good back in Harris, so I’m not overly surprised that we allowed over 100 rushing yards (119) and 3.8 yards a carry. Kenny Pickett took two rushes in for a touchdown and I think it’s hard to attribute blame there. So let’s take a look at the PFF run defense statistics:

I’m only going to include players who were in for at least 10 run defense snaps, so you won’t see Micheal Clemons on this list as he was only in for 7 and had a 64 run defense grade.

LaMarcus Joyner - 84.2
Jermaine Johnson - 74.5
C.J Mosley 73.5
JFM - 72.6
Quinnen Williams - 70.6
D.J Reed - 69.6
Sheldon Rankins - 68.0
Marcell Harris - 67.2
Solomon Thomas - 66.8
Jordan Whitehead - 66.2
Kwon Alexander - 63.4
Jacob Martin - 60.9
Nathan Shepherd - 58.6
Sauce Gardner - 49.3
Micheal Carter II - 49.2

Talk about having yourself a day if you’re Joyner, he had a complete performance (more on his coverage below). If this is the kind of free safety play we can expect going forward we’re going to be a very difficult team to beat.

Coverage

The Jets held the Steelers to just 204 yards passing and no touchdowns through the air…considering the weapons at Pittsbugh’’s disposal that is significant. When you add the fact that we created four turnovers, I would argue it was the best coverage day we’ve seen from a Jets secondary in some time. I know that the performance from the corners isn’t a mirage, but what about the safeties? One of the best aspects to yesterday’s game was the absence of the weekly miscommunication touchdown.

Sauce Gardner - 7 targets, 2 receptions, 9 yards, 6 YAC, 1 PBU
D.J Reed - 3 targets, 3 receptions, 23 yards, 2 YAC.
LaMarcus Joyner - 3 targets, 1 reception, 26 yards, 10 YAC, 2 PBU, 2 INT
Jordan Whitehead - 0 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards, 1 INT
Michael Carter II - 3 targets, 3 receptions, 44 yards, 18 YAC, 1 INT
C.J Mosley - 4 targets, 3 receptions, 32 yards, 7 YAC, 1 PBU
Kwon Alexander - 3 targets, 3 receptions, 38 yards, 18 YAC
Marcell Harris - 1 target, 1 reception, 5 yards, 1 YAC.
Ashytn Davis - 1 target, 1 reception, 27 yards, 6 YAC
Sheldon Rankins - 1 target, 0 receptions, 1 PBU

Team’s don’t seem to have received the message that it’s not wise to throw toward Sauce. Not only did he allow just 28.6% of passes to be completed into his coverage, but it was his worth on the Steelers TE that allowed Michael Carter to come down with the INT. The Jets corners allowed just 32 yards to be completed against them as a combination and while the test of Hill and Waddle next week will be a significant upgrade, the Jets can feel good about what they’re getting from their corners. Through 4 games of the 2022 season the Jets corners have combined for 174 yards allowed, 1 TD, 5 PBU, and 1 INT.

A special mention has to go to Joyner here, the free safety is absolutely key in any cover 1/3 scheme and Joyner has come under significant pressure this year. We do have to remember that he’s working his way back from a serious injury that kept him out of the 2021 season, and just like Lawson it’s going to take some time to get back to his best.

Special Teams

It was a quiet day for Greg Zuerlein who made his only field goal of the day, a 38-yarder. He also hit 100% of his extra points and considering we’ve seen plenty of those missed around the NFL, that is noticeable.

Braden Mann didn’t have the best day punting, he averaged 47 yards but his net was just 43.8 and that’s due to his hangtime taking a nose dive all the way down to 4.17 which ranked him 24th in that category for week four.

Mann has had some good games and he’s had some not-so-good days, let’s hope he gets back on track next week.