The Impact of UDFAs
Edition #392
Good morning! ☕
Welcome to the weekend!
The Jets started making some room with the 2023 cap yesterday and I imagine we may see a few more moves over the coming days. Today we’ve got a number of quick throws before looking at the impact of UDFAs at certain positions.
The Jets will be back at Florham Park for OTAs next week, scheduled to run on May 22nd-23th and then May 25th. So get ready to see a number of Aaron Rodgers photos hitting your timeline.
💰 The Jets restructured the contract of Carl Lawson yesterday creating $12.7 million in cap space in 2023. They did add four void years which means the Jets will be paying Lawson through 2027 despite 2023 being the final year of his contract. Lawson basically reduced his contract from $15 million to $9 million with $8 million guaranteed, he has the chance to earn another $3 million in incentives based on the number of sacks and games played. Lawson will now count just $3 million against the cap in 2023 which creates spaces for the Aaron Rodgers contract. If the Jets can fit more of Rodgers's contract into 2023, that opens up cap space in 2024 and beyond to sign a certain defensive tackle. I’d expect Corey Davis to be restructured soon.
📈 According to a study by OLBG, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is the most marketable athlete in the NFL right now. The study was based on social media following, advertising performance, and a number of other factors: “Rodgers has had a fantastic career winning the Super Bowl, receiving multiple MVP awards, and is now widely considered to be one the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. Such performances have led to big brands knocking, securing endorsements from brands such as State Farm, Adidas, Bergstrom Automotive, IZOD, Pizza Hut, and Ford, to name just a few.”
🎽 Aaron Rodgers also had the #1 selling jersey in the NFL Shop for the month of April.
🔍 Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers will be competing for AFC supremacy when the NFL season kicks into gear later this year, but for now, they’re joining forces off the field with the Bills QB part of a group of celebrities investing $150 million into RX13, a company that was co-founded by Rodgers back in 2018.
🤯 Former NFL QB Alex Smith was making an appearance on SiriusXM radio recently and he had some things to say about Robert Saleh and the development of Zach Wilson: “Yeah, Robert Saleh, you’re a great defensive mind and coordinator, but like you have no idea how to develop a quarterback. The coordinator you hired never called plays,” Smith said. “So that’s a completely different animal. And as much as you think you’re prepared to handle that development of a young kid, you’re just not.”
🌟 Between May 21-23, the NFL will host its second coach accelerator program in Minneapolis. The program invites 40 participants who are “attending based on their high potential to be considered for a head coach position in the future,” per the NFL website. Jets senior defensive assistant and cornerbacks coach Tony Oden is on that list.
🗝️ Marc Sessler over at NFL.com outlined the key priority for each AFC team this summer, and for the Jets, he believes getting Aaron Rodgers comfortable is key: “I'd love to see the Jets add to their offensive line, but let's not prance around the bigger picture: New York's schedule is a rough-and-tumble brawl out of the gate with the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots and Chiefs zooming in to spoil the party. The hiring of Nathaniel Hackett (last year's Peter principle-doused car crash aside) suggests a soft landing for Aaron Rodgers. His plays, his scheme, his world. The Jets might have one year with Aaron, so the only thing that matters is a comprehensive sync job of everyone involved. If Hackett was under pressure to thrive with Russell Wilson a year ago, he's doubly on the hook to help Rodgers sing ASAP in NYC.”
⬆️ Cynthia Frelund had an article outlining the 10 best offenses in the NFL and she had the Jets at number 10: “The Jets, Dolphins and Vikings are all extremely close in slots 10 through 12 here, with small differences separating them. Aaron Rodgers' ability to increase the effectiveness of his O-line pushes the Jets slightly ahead and into the 10th spot. Over the past five seasons, no QB has helped his O-line more than Rodgers, per computer vision. I was a bit shocked that the Jets ended up in the top 10 because their defense is also ranked in my top 10, whereas the Vikings' defense is not, meaning their offense should pick up a bigger win share. In the end, though, the Jets' schedule includes too many games where they are forecast to lean heavily on the Rodgers-led attack. If we were doing fantasy drafts right now, Breece Hall would be my RB7 in a PPR league (assuming full health).”
✍️ The Jets have officially signed 4th-round pick Carter Warren to his rookie deal.
Yesterday I started to look at the impact of UDFAs as part of some research for a bigger piece I’m working on.
I wanted to see if there were certain positions in the NFL that have a higher proportion of UDFAs making an impact. To do that, I checked each position and worked out the percentage of UDFA players who reached the minimum snap count to achieve a PFF player grade at each position.
There is an element of luck involved in a UDFA making the team and then making an impact. For example, if you’re looking at the Jet’s UDFA class this year, you would instantly say that the WRs and DEs have a tougher road to making the team based on the Jet’s existing depth chart. But you’d also say that if they’re talented enough, they will eventually catch on somewhere else.
All of this data is based on the 2022 season and includes every UDFA whether they were signed in 2022 or 2012. Let’s just dive straight into the numbers:
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