State of the defense

Injuries have piled up, but should the unit be doing more and is it time to worry?

🗽 Good morning Jets fans and welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the TJW. We still have 4 weeks of football to go and I can’t decide if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. On one hand, we’ve got 4 weeks to see some improvement, so see some development from these young guys, and when it’s gone we’ll absolutely miss it. On the other hand, can you stomach another 4 weeks of this kind of football? It’s hard to watch at the moment.

Instead of the stock report, because who really raised their stock other than the kicker? And do we want to dwell on that game? Today I wanted to focus on the defense. A unit that is quite honestly, an absolute mess this season. Just take a look at the stats here. Averaging nearly 400 yards a game and over 30 points a game, with a stat line like that it’s a miracle that we’ve managed to win three games this year.

This isn’t just the worst unit in football this season, this is one of the worst Jets defensive units I can remember. It makes the Gregg Williams led 2020 unit look mildly competitive allowing 28.6 points per game. I went back to 2003 to look at opponents’ points per game and the Jets have never allowed more than 30/game in that span. Maybe they won’t this year, but with the Bucs and Bills still on the schedule, would you bet on that? I wouldn’t.

Injuries

The first thing you’ll hear about the defensive struggles comes down to injuries. It’s a very compelling case. We are a rebuilding team, and the depth isn’t where it needs to be to stay competitive when faced with multiple injuries. That’s a fact. So when the Jets lost countless defensive players to the sickbay, it was always going to be an uphill struggle. Here’s a full list of players on the defensive side of the ball who have missed multiple games, most have missed significantly more.

Carl Lawson, Marcus Maye, LaMarcus Joyner, Vinny Curry, Jamien Sherwood, Bryce Huff, Blake Cashman (yes I’m including him), Ronnie Blair, Brandin Echols and Ashtyn Davis.

You’ve got a number of starters in there. This is football, you need to deal with injuries, you need to construct a roster capable of dealing with injuries. The Jets may have had more injuries but other teams have also been dealt tough blows and figured out ways to still stay competitive.

The Jet’s defensive system is predicated on the pass-rush getting home without sending help. The Jets blitz on just 24.2% of plays which is 18th in the league, but their hurry percentage is sitting at just 8.6%, which is one of the worst marks in football, an overall pressure percentage of 23.9% is good for 23rd in the league. The Jets aren’t making opposing QB’s overly uncomfortable and a comfortable QB is a happy QB.

Losing Lawson was about as big a blow this football team could have suffered, but I still don’t think it excuses giving up nearly 400 yards a game and over 30 points a game. Saying that, this defense does need an injection of talent, mainly on the 2nd and 3rd levels.

Lack of Momentum-Shifting Plays

The Jets turnover differential is a -16, a large part of that is on the offense, and the QB’s throwing too many picks. But, a large part is also to do with the defense not forcing turnovers.

The Jets are ranked 32nd in terms of generating interceptions (4) and 31st in forcing turnovers in general (9) (only Jacksonville are worse, having forced a turnover on only 6 occasions).

The Jets average starting field position in 2 yards less than the league average, and while that may not sound like a lot, it makes a big difference. The Patriots are #1 in the league in terms of average starting field position, starting at their own 32.6, they are also #2 in terms of defensive interceptions and #3 in terms of defensive turnovers.

The offense can absolutely help the defense by not turning the ball over so much, 17.2% of the Jet’s offensive drives this year have ended in turnovers (2nd highest in the league), but the defense can help the offense by shortening the field through turnovers.

Missed Tackles

Last week Jeff Ulbrich pointed to missed tackles as a huge area of improvement for the Jets, according to the Jets defensive coordinator there were 15 whiffs in last week’s game. There were a fair few yesterday, but in comparison to the rest of the NFL, do the Jets have a problem with missed tackles?

According to PFR, the Jets defense have missed 78 tackles in the league, that’s actually above average and puts them 12th in the league. The Buffalo Bills who many consider to have the best defense in football have missed 91 by comparison, the worst tackling team in football is the Pittsburgh Steelers with 99 missed tackles. So the volume of missed tackles doesn’t seem to be the problem, but situationally it may be that the missed tackle results are far more harmful.

Take this play from yesterday, I mean if you want a perfect demonstration of missed tackling, this is it. Ashtyn Davis is your main culprit here, he has a 2nd defender there in the sideline and somehow he still whiffs on the tackle. I really like Davis from a pure physical standpoint, and he’s still raw due to a lack of playing time through injuries, but these are the tackles you expect your free safety to make whether he’s starting his 5th or 50th game. It’s not great by Riley or Echols either.

Who’s In?

When you’re looking at the weakness of the team, it’s probably only right that you start wondering who’s going to be with your next season. So now is probably a good time to remind ourselves who’s about to hit free agency for the Jets on the defensive side of the football.

The Jets have some tough decisions to make, I think a lot of the ERFA and RFA’s will be back, it makes perfect sense to bring those guys back. But there is a world where all the UFA’s don’t return. Maye is coming off a very serious injury and how much will the Jets want to invest in a 28-year-old safety in that situation. If Maybe opts for a one-year prove-it deal then that would make sense for the Jets. Jarrad Davis has been hugely disappointing, and Joyner will be entering his age 32 season, off the back of missing 16 1/2 games in a season.

So if the Jets aren’t going to bring their own FA’s back, then who’s out there to help this unit climb out of this pit of despair that we’ve seen all season?

Defending the receivers

I don’t want this to be a all-out negative assessment of the Jets defense, one area that really stood out for me when researching this post was the Jets record against opponents’ receivers.

The Jets are actually one of the better teams in the league at keeping the opposition’s wide receivers quiet.

The Jets have surrendered 141 catches (3rd best), 1915 yards (10th best), and 9 touchdowns (5th best) to wide receivers this year. Part of it is because why look elsewhere when you can beat us with the running backs and tight ends, but part of it is the play of Bryce Hall, Michael Carter II, and Brandin Echols.

3 Free Agents at Safety

Over the coming weeks and months, we’ll start focusing in on certain position groups where the Jets need improvement. One of the first glaring needs is safety. With Maye/Joyner being free agents and Ashtyn Davis and Elijah Riley hardly solidifying their place in the 2022 lineup, it’s worth taking a look around the league to see who is going to be potentially available.

1) Marcus Williams - New Orleans Saints

Williams seems like the obvious one to talk about considering we’ve just played the Saints. You probably heard a lot of people say the Jets receivers weren’t getting any separation and Williams was a reason for that. Williams is one of the best coverage safeties in the NFL. He’s allowed a 50% completion rating into his coverage while registering 2 interceptions and 5 pass breakups. He predominantly plays at a traditional free safety position, but he can come down and work in the box as well. Williams won’t come cheap though, and I’m not sure the Jets are looking to invest heavily in that position.

2) Xavier Woods - Minnesota Vikings

It may not have been the ideal coverage year for Woods, but Xavier has been a chess piece for the Vikings that they’ve been able to move around. He has over 100 snaps as a box safety (188), slot corner (134) and as a traditional free safety (552). One knock on Woods, while he was in Dallas, was his tackling ability but that’s seen a drastic improvement in Minnesota, his missed tackle percentage went from 11% to just 6% in 2021. He’ll be a lot cheaper than Williams and for a reason. But at 26 he’s about to enter his best years, he may be an option the Jets want to consider.

3) Jessie Bates III - Cincinnati Bengals

Bates is having a little bit of a down year for him, which is unfortunate timing when he’s just about to hit free agency. In 2020 he allowed just one touchdown on 54.3% completion into his coverage with 3 interceptions, and 12 pass breakups. He was all over the field, fast, fluid, and reliable. This year he’s allowed 3 touchdowns on 82.1% completion into his coverage with just one interception and one pass breakup. I don’t watch enough Bengals football to know what’s really going on, but he’s only 25 and he has a proven history of good play. I’d be willing to bet on the upside.

Drafting Safety

I think it’ll be a very difficult sell for Joe Douglas to to take a safety high in the 2022 NFL draft, but that doesn’t mean he won’t do it. I think people undervalue the role of the safety in the Saleh system and how many doors it opens to have a really good versatile safety back in the secondary. So the sake of this, I’m going to spread the three picks around. One early, one middle and one late.

1) Kyle Hamilton - Notre Dame - Top 5

I’m still debating how comfortable I’d be with Kyle Hamilton as the Jets first round pick in the top 5. I think to appreciate Hamilton you can’t get too caught up in the safety tag. He’s a safety, linebacker, corner hybrid that can basically do anything you ask of him. He’s big, fast and physical, he’s long and elusive, athletic and powerful. He can play in the box like a linebacker and turn and run like a corner, he has 8 interceptions in three years, so he knows how to find the football. He’s a very special talent.

2) Lewis Cine - Georgia - 3rd round

Cine is a guy who’s really improved his overall game in 2021, we always knew he was physical, better at coming downhill and punishing ball carriers, but in 2021 he’s shown more range and better coverage ability. He has 8 passes defended and he’ll probably be a bit disappointed to only have one INT to his name this year. He’s got good size, decent speed and athleticism to play the position at the pro level. He didn’t have his best game in the SEC championship week, so the game against Michigan will be key for his draft stock.

While we’re on Michigan, keep an eye on Daxton Hill, a player who may project more to an inside corner at the NFL level, but a player I absolutely love. He’s a 2nd round guy for sure.

3) Smoke Monday - Auburn - 5th to 7th round pick

This could be a bit of a steal, I haven’t seen Smoke mocked any higher than the 5th round. He’s a 6’3 safety who has been all over the field for Auburn in 2021. 2 sacks, 8 tackles for a loss, 1 interception, 5 passes defended and a player who gives 💯% on every single snap. He does have some limitations which is why he’s been mocked towards the end of the draft, he’s not the most agile mover and he can get lost in space on occasions, but as a strong safety prospect who can spend a lot of time in the box and in underneath zone coverage, he has a lot of upside.

One other name to watch out for is Middle Tennessee safety Reed Blankenship. I’ve already posted a scouting report for Reed over on Gang Green Nation, and after studying all of his games from 2021, I loved his instincts and recognition skills for a late-round prospect.

Other names to be aware of:

Jaquan Brisker - Penn State - Likely goes the end of the first round.

Jalen Catalon - Arkansas - 2nd to 3rd round talent.

Verone McKinley III - Oregon - 3rd round talent.

Jordan Battle - Alabama - 3rd round talent.

Getting Healthy

For the first time in a while, the Jets received some positive injury news ahead of this weekend’s game in Miami.

Robert Saleh in his Monday press conference confirmed that the Jets were hopeful that they would have the following players back on Sunday:

RB Michael Carter, CB Michael Carter II, RB Tevin Coleman, DE Bryce Huff and TE Tyler Kroft. He also confirmed that the expectation was that Quinnen Williams would be available and that Elijah Moore should be back for the final two games of the season.