Stat Check: Offence

Edition #501

Good morning.

After such a high of victory against the previously undefeated Eagles, I’m not sure if having a bye week now is a good or bad thing. Sometimes the week after a big win you experience a letdown, and let’s be honest that’s something we’re familiar with. Now we get an extra week to let the win wash over us and start fresh with the Giants the new targets.

The Giants played the Bills close this weekend, but one look at the points for and against in the NFC East will tell you why New York finds itself 1-5 and currently on a 4-game skid. We’re going to get into the Giants next week but if you’re a fan of the blue side of New York, you can’t be happy with any of the numbers on that chart.

Today we’re going to use the bye week to stop and take note of the offence, and then later this week we’ll focus on the defence. I’ve been accused of being a little harsh on the offence but I think I’m realistic when it comes to how I view the unit. The point of this is not to criticise, but rather highlight the areas where we need to improve if we want to both reach the playoffs and then make some noise once we get there.

I’m led by the stats, but also try and use the context of the games.

"His superpower is his presence. Him being in this building, being around his teammates, being in the locker room, his positive attitude, his thoughts of manifestation and all that stuff, I think it's powerful. Obviously, as a coach, of course, selfishly, I want him here every single day. I want him in every meeting. I want him on the practice field. I want him on the sideline. I want him in the locker room ... because he's an unbelievable human and, outside of scheme and playing ability, the intangibles that he brings to his teammates and the fuel I think his teammates will give to him is priceless." - Robert Saleh on Aaron Rodgers

As it’s the bye week, I’m going to get some power rankings in here. Something I haven’t done since the start of the year.

ESPN - 16 (24 last week) “Lesson learned: They can function without Aaron Rodgers”

NFL - 15 (19th last week) “They have earned rest this week after evening their record at 3-3. With three winnable games coming out of the bye -- “at” Giants, vs. Chargers, at Raiders -- this team cannot be dismissed, especially with an Aaron Rodgers miracle return not yet ruled out. Few Jets games have been pretty, and points remain a premium. That said, when you can beat a Super Bowl-caliber team with starting CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed out -- and pick off three passes in the process -- you may dispense artistic merit in such cases. The Jets are lucky their mistakes against the Eagles didn’t sting more, and 1-for-4 in the red zone won’t often cut it. This win, however, like seeing Rodgers throwing passes pregame, reminds us that anything remains possible.

The Athletic - 14th (26th last week) “Nobody in the league benefits more from a “Who’d you beat?” calculation than the Jets. Zach Wilson, who was 19-for-33 for 186 yards Sunday, deserves some (but not too many) apologies, but this is all defense-driven. New York has held Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts to passer ratings under 64. “These first six weeks we’ve played a gauntlet of quarterbacks, and I know we haven’t gotten all wins, but we embarrassed all of them,” Jets coach Robert Saleh said Sunday after his team beat the Eagles for the first time in franchise history.”

CBS Sports - 15th (25th last week) “The Jets defense came up big against the Eagles, which has them at 3-3. That's impressive after losing Aaron Rodgers in the first game.”

Bleacher Report - 18th (25th last week) “Gang Green has quality wins against the Buffalo Bills and Eagles and nearly pulled off a comeback win in a competitive contest with the Kansas City Chiefs a couple of weeks ago. Obviously, the Jets have limitations with a Zach Wilson-led offense, but their roster can still keep the score close enough for them to pull off wins and upsets."

The Jets are 3-3 and had you offered that 4 snaps into the game against Buffalo with Aaron Rodgers in obvious agony, I think I would have taken it.

It’s not revolutionary to say that the offence suffered the most when Rodgers was ruled out for the season. But the NFL is a complementary league and while the defence is excelling, the offence has some work to do the rest of the way.

Here are some key total offence statistics to consider at the bye week.

• The Jets run on average 56.3 plays per game (30/32)

• The Jets average 277 yards per game. (29/32)

• The Jets average 15 first-downs per game. (31/32)

• The Jets convert on average 3 third downs per game (32/32)

• They have the ball for an average of 27:34 (27/32)

• They convert 25% of their third downs (32/32)

• On average, each play takes 29.4 seconds (27/32)

In most key categories, the Jets are among the worst teams in football. They’re also one of the slowest teams, and while that’s not always a bad thing, using quick tempo can put defences at a disadvantage in terms of their personnel usage.

The third-down conversion is a huge issue that needs to be addressed and that falls hand in hand with the lack of first-downs, time of possession and the number of offensive plays run. So, you fix the one, the domino effect is very real.

You then take a look at the scoring offence and it paints a very similar picture.

• The Jets have scored 18.8 points on average (22/32)

• They average 1.5 touchdowns per game (28/32)

• The Jets have 2.8 red zone trips per game (21/32)

• The Jets convert 29.41% of red zone trips into touchdowns (31/32)

• The Jets made on average 2.5 field goals per game (6/32)

• They’ve also converted 93.75% of their FG opportunities (8/32)

Like the stats above, a lot of this feeds into one problem area. Red zone offence. That 29.41% is atrocious and the kicking game is largely keeping the offence afloat in terms of points per game.

We also need to address the slow starts. Here’s the Jets points per game broken down by quarter:

1st quarter: 0.8 (32/32)
2nd quarter: 6.7 (16/32)
3rd quarter: 4.0 (15/32)
4th quarter: 6.3 (16/32)

We’ve won three games this year with the worst starting offence in the first quarter. Those early plays are the scripted plays, the confidence plays. Something within that opening game script isn’t working and the Jets need to go back to the drawing board. Is it execution? Is is design? Is it a combination of both? Whatever it is, that’s an area along with third-down conversion and red zone offence.

Then you need to break the offence down. It’s a complete unit with the pass feeding off the run and visa-versa, I don’t think we’ve nailed that balance yet. I think for much of the season we’ve been all too predictable and the Philly game was the first time I thought we mixed things up enough to keep the defence guessing.

• Passing yards per game 159.5 (32/32)

• 6.0 yards per passing attempt (27/32)

• 30.5 passing attempts per game (28/32)

• 0.7 passing touchdowns per game (30/32)

• 8.3 passing first downs per game (31/32)

• 3.3 sacks per game (27/32)

• 7.1% team drop rate (31/32)

• 74.7% on-target throws (15/32)

• 16.5% bad throw rate (13/32)

• 33.5% of snaps with pressure on the QB (32/32)

There’s a lot to digest there. But if you want a couple of positive Zach Wilson stats, I’d look at the on-target rate and the bad throw rate. Both are around the league average and while you’re not throwing parades down the Grand Canyon of Heroes for that, it shows progress. But it’s clear that the Jets need to open up the playbook a little, need to pass-protect better, need to catch better and if you’re Zach Wilson, need to process better.

Now if you turn your focus over to the other side of the offence and the rushing attack

• 22.5 rushing attempts per game (28/32)

• 117.5 rushing yards per game (13/32)

• 5.3 rushing first downs per game (25/32)

• 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game (20/32)

• 5.2 rushing yards per attempt (3/32)

• 39.94% rushing play percentage (24/32)

• 278 rushing yards after contact (8/32)

• 2.1 yards after contact per attempt (3/32)

It’s pretty clear the Jets are a more refined rushing attack. The attempts, first downs and rushing play percentage can all be attributed to an offence that finds itself behind a lot. That 5.2 rushing yards per attempt shows the talent and ability of Breece Hall. Dalvin Cooks's role has been reduced for around 4 weeks in a row now, and soon it’ll be nothing more than a token role, and I expect the Jets’ rushing game to improve as Hall dominates the carries. I’d also like to see Abanikanda introduced soon.

Summary

If you look at the numbers in isolation it doesn’t look great. But I don’t think the offence has been as bad as they suggest. We’re having some real issues in two key areas (red zone, and third down) which have a huge knock-on effect. We’re missing by a hair here and a hair there. This isn’t an offence devoid of talent, this is an offence that is just a half step out on execution. We’ve seen progress in terms of the play call predictability, and we’ve seen progress in terms of personnel, more Hall less Cook, more Ruckert less Uzomah, more Gipson and less Cobb. I think we can go further. I also think we can be more aggressive in the red zone, let Zach throw into the end zone more, and stress the defence.

I’m often asked about my opinion of Zach and it’s a difficult one to answer. I don’t think he’s improved as much as some would have you believe, but I do believe he’s made progress in terms of his timing, footwork and decision-making. His processing is still too slow and he won’t win you many games with his arm (right now), but he also won’t lose you that many games either because he’s cut down on the turnover-worthy plays. But to really hit his maximum potential I think you have to encourage him to take some chances at certain points. Right now he’s a game manager, and that’s fine to a point because with this defense you can win with a game-manager. But I’d like to see him open things up a little. His interception % is likely to go up, but I’m pretty confident his touchdown % will too.

He does need to improve in the red zone. I think anyone including Zach (like he did on Monday) will admit that. He completes 60% of his passes on the season, but that number drops to 47.62% inside the 20 and 44.4% inside the 10. Both are in the bottom third of the league.

Only the Jacksonville Jaguars defence has forced more turnovers (15) than the Jets (13) which means the offence starting field position is often above the league average.