Setting The Market

Edition #1034: Breece Hall speaks and his market may have been set by the Dallas Cowboys.

Good morning ☕

I’ll be travelling today and tomorrow, so I will aim to get a short update out tomorrow afternoon/evening, but if there is nothing pressing we will be back on Wednesday as normal

Breece Hall was at a promotional event over the weekend and as expected, he was asked about his current contract situation.

The video caused a few ripples, but he said exactly what you’d expect him to say. He wants to win a championship and he wants to be be valued.

He wouldn’t categorically state that he wanted to come back, nor would be categorically say he wanted to leave. He instead handed it over to his agent.

With every day that passes between now and free agency, I believe we take one step closer to Hall being tagged, giving him a nice payday for 2026.

There’s no immediate rush to get things done, with Mougey having the opportunity to see where the market sits in relation to RBs.

The first domino in that equation fell on Saturday night as the Dallas Cowboys announced the signing of Javonte Williams to a new 3-year deal worth $24 million with $16 million guaranteed.

Javonte is 25-years-old and coming off a season where he rushed for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns while catching 35 touchdowns and 2 touchdowns.

So a player who’s still in his prime as a RB, coming off a year where he contributed 13 touchdowns and nearly 1,500 yards is worth $8 million over three years. What does that say about Breece Hall’s true value?

Hall like Williams, is coming off his first 1000 yard rushing season. Breece has been the feature back more often than Williams who spent most of his early career in a rotation. Williams started just one game over his first two years and had exactly 250 attempts over that period

Breece has 27 touchdowns on 943 touches across both the rushing and receiving game where as Williams has 29 on 1051 touches, so when you work it out at an average, Hall scores a TD every 35 touches and Williams scores on every 36th touch. So in that regard they’re almost identical.

I think you can and should make the argument that Williams has been part of better offenses, especially in 2025 with the Cowboys who ranked 2nd in the league for their passing offense, which in turn helps open up the run game.

I also think it’s fair to say that Breece is more explosive. His 87 rushes of 10+ yards and 47 rushes of 15+ yards compare well with Williams who has 92 and 41 respectively, but Williams has over 100 more attempts than Breece. Breece is the better receiver and his 3.26 yards after contact per attempt is slightly better than Williams 3.11, although Williams statistically is better at making people miss.

All told, the comparison is quite a good one.

Javonte Williams will head into 2026 as the 16th highest paid RB based on the contract average. I think the Cowboys did well to get him to sign on the dotted line at that value. Saying that, the perceived value of the RB seems to be tanking at the same rate as the value of WR is soaring. Barkley will make over $20 million next season but he’s the only RB in that bracket. CMC at $19 million is close, but then there is a big gap to Henry at $15 million average.

Breece will likely fit in somewhere between Javonte Williams and Derek Henry. I don’t think he’s getting above Jonathan Taylor at $14 million because he doesn’t have the touchdown production. The Athletic put him at $13.5 million, but is he really worth $5.5 million per season more than Williams? I think that would be a tough sell for his agent. Fox Sports put him at $10.5 million and personally I think that’s a lot closer to a reasonable number.

Breece has that potential that you love as a team buying the future of a 24-year-old. But on the other side he has historically had some fumble issues (although he sorted those), some injury issues and some consistency issues. If I’m the Jets I’m putting a 4-year deal in front of him worth $10 million per year and seeing what the response is. Javonte has started the race early and he’s started it in favour of Darren Mougey.

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NEWS & NOTES

• PFF released their top landing spots for the best safeties in free agency and incredible they don’t believe the Jets would be an ideal fit for any of them, despite us having Malachi Moore and little else.

• NFL.com have another mock draft out and the tide of opinion for the Jets at #2 seems to be swelling towards David Bailey: “While the No. 1 overall pick’s essentially a foregone conclusion, No. 2 is anything but. That said, this explosive edge rusher presumably will receive serious consideration. In Aaron Glenn’s debut season as head coach, the Jets finished 31st in sacks with just 26, the franchise’s lowest total of this millennium. Meanwhile, Bailey just tied for the FBS lead with 14.5 sacks.”

• Dan Pompei of The Athletic had an excellent article on Frank Reich over the weekend and what encouraged him to return: “Calling plays turns him on. He gave up play calling with the Panthers for three games but went back to doing it when the offense was struggling. He also called plays as head coach of the Colts and as offensive coordinator of the Chargers. He even called plays for Kelly on critical downs in the K-Gun no-huddle for the Bills.

  He plans to dial up wide receiver Garrett Wilson’s number frequently. Reich says he’s looking for ways to get him lined up at X, F and Z, depending on the formation and play concept. “This,” he (Reich) says, “is my sweet spot.”

• According to ESPN, Edge Rusher is the strongest position group in free agency: “If your favorite team’s general manager can’t find a good fit at edge rusher this offseason, tell him to take a hike. Putting aside the Crosby trade rumors for now, here’s a list of expected free agent edge rushers: Trey Hendrickson (Bengals), Odafe Oweh (Chargers), Jaelan Phillips (Eagles), Khalil Mack (Chargers), K’Lavon Chaisson (Patriots), Boye Mafe (Seahawks), Joey Bosa (Bills) and Jadeveon Clowney (Cowboys).

  The main thing that impresses me is the variety. Oweh, Chaisson and Mafe are speed artists who can create pressure fast. Guys such as Mack, Clowney and Kingsley Enagbare (Packers) are all hitters in the running game.”

• Rich Cimini had some thoughts on some pending free agents including AVT: “The Jets have four starting offensive linemen under contract, and they'd love to slot Vera-Tucker into that fifth spot (probably left guard). But how much are they willing to risk on an injury-prone player? One agent who doesn't represent Vera-Tucker speculated that he could earn $13 million per year on a multiyear contract; another predicted a one-year prove-it deal.”

• NFL.com released the priority fix for every single team and unsurprisingly for the Jets, it’s all about the QB: “Since the Mark Sanchez era ended in 2012, only the Browns have started more quarterbacks (25) than the New York Jets (16). Franchise quarterback remains the top hole to fill for both those organizations, but the Jets don’t have more than $100 million of dead money tied up in Justin Fields (like Cleveland does with Deshaun Watson), nor did they spend third- and fifth-round picks on the position last draft (like Cleveland did). Still, they ranked bottom three in completion percentage over expected (-4.2%), pass success rate (38.4%) and EPA/dropback (-0.22) per NFL Pro. Realistically, they probably cannot roll out another year of Fields, Tyrod Taylor and Brady Cook. Unless Daniel Jones is a surprise exit from Indianapolis, or they land Kirk Cousins if/when he becomes available, their best bet might be a trade. I’d like to see them aim high for Kyler Murray, otherwise they might have to settle for someone like Mac Jones — who was surprisingly efficient in 2025.”

• Rich Cimini confirmed that the Jets are expected to explore other options for their veteran QB despite Tyrod Taylor openly expressing a desire to return: “The Jets told Taylor at the end of the season that they’re interested in running it back, but the landscape has changed since then. There’s a new offensive coordinator (Frank Reich) and a new system to be installed, and they’re expected to prioritize other quarterbacks in free agency and in potential trades. Taylor, whose contract voided Friday, will be 37 for the season. He has battled myriad injuries in recent years, including knee and groin issues last season.”