Safety: Signing & Pick

Edition #782

☀️ Good morning ☕

If you’re anything like me, you need a little break from the Head Coach and General Manager search.

I’m sure at some point this week the talk is going to intensify and with the Titans already on round two of their interviews, I’m hoping the Jets get going with whittling down their very long list of candidates.

Once they do that we can start diving deeper on each, but right now I just need a little break from talking about cap and personnel experience, so today we’re going to introduce something new which I’m going to do ahead of free agency and the draft.

I’m going to look at one position and outline one free agent signing and one draft pick I’d be interested in if I were the Jets, starting today with safety. This is not an either/or situation, it’s just outlining multiple players from different avenues.

🟢 The Jets continued their mammoth search for a new GM with two more completed interviews on Tuesday. First it was Jon-Eric Sullivan who we’ll talk about tomorrow, and then it was Buffalo’s Assistant GM Brian Gaine. I like both of those candidates, but we absolutely have to start narrowing this down. I believe that’s now 15 candidates who have interviewed for the GM position.

🟢 The Jets announced that they have signed kicker Anders Carlson and tight end Neal Johnson to future contracts. That basically means they will start counting against the cap at the start of the new league year and can’t negotiate with any other team. Carlson made 8-of-10 field-goal attempts (80%) and 9-of-11 extra-point attempts (81.8%) in five games.

🟢 PFF like to do these one perfect prospect for every team ahead of the 2025 draft. Fittingly they had the Jets taking Malaki Starks, safety out of Georgia. “The Jets are in position to select one of the top defensive playmakers in the 2025 NFL Draft, and Starks could be an ideal selection for them. He has earned a PFF coverage grade above 70.0 in each of the past two seasons and has missed just 6.9% of the tackles he has attempted in his college career.” I wouldn’t personally do that, because I’ve got my eye on another prospect.

🟢 According to ESPN’s Rich Cimini, the Jets have requested an interview with Washington Commanders DC Joe Whitt Jr. for their vacant Head Coach position. He’s the 17th coach the Jets have either interviewed or requested for an interview. So in total the Jets are up to 32 different candidates for the vacant HC/GM positions.

🟢 Connor Hughes said in a recent mailbag that there is plenty of chatter around league circles that the Jets are going to nab three Minnesota Vikings employees to run the franchise - Ryan Grigson (general manager), Brian Flores (head coach), and Josh McCown (offensive coordinator). I like two of those hires, but I don’t love the idea of Ryan Grigson leading from the front.

🟢 The will Aaron Rodgers retire conversation is going to inensify once the Jets have a new GM and HC in charge. Nobody knows which way he’s leaning, including Thomas Morestead - “That’s up to him,” Morstead said. “And any player making that decision, that’s their decision. Do I think he will be back? I don’t know the answer to that. That’s kind of above my pay grade. As far as knowing all of the intricacies and complexities of that situation, obviously, that’s a big decision as a team with your quarterback and the guy who is generally the most important position on the team and highest compensated generally on the team. I’ve got no idea what’s going to happen. I’ve loved being teammates with him. He’s become a good friend and we’ll see what happens.”

If there’s one thing I became pretty tired of during the Douglas/Saleh reign, it was their reluctance to prioritise any resources to safety.

Chuck Clark on the cheap, Ashtyn Davis who had failed previously, Tony Adams a UDFA, Isaiah Oliver on the cheap, Jordan Whitehead was a flawed signing, Lamarcus Joyner on the cheap coming off injury, journeyman Will Parks, UDFA Elijah Riley, UDFA Sharrod Neasman. All of those players played significant snaps in one or more seasons for the Jets.

This year we were completely exposed at safety. The group gave up 1,087 yards of offence, 611 yards after the catch and 9 touchdowns. Clark and Oliver gave up 6 of those and Oliver allowed nearly 80% of passes into his coverage to be completed. He spent a lot of time at slot corner but he also spent nearly 200 snaps at safety. Tony Adams allowed a 103.1 NFL passer rating into his coverage while allowing 77% of passes to be completed and allowed 11.1 yards per reception.

Ashtyn Davis was the last safety picked within the first three rounds of the draft, and that was back in 2020. Maybe we overcorrected after spending two premium picks on safety in 2017 (Jamal Adams & Marcus Maye), but the belief within that draft room, without that management room was that we didn’t need to prioritise the position. In a passing league, we could get by with great corners and a pass-rush.

This year we’ve seen a host of safeties make impact play after impact play. Detroit invested in Kerby Joseph in the 3rd round in 2022, TJW readers will remember I was extremely high on him. He finished the 2024 season as the highest rated safety. Kyle Hamilton was the 2nd highest rated safety, he’s also performing well on a playoff team in Baltimore. Brandon Jones in Denver, Xavier McKinney in Green Bay, Ar'Darius Washington in Baltimore, Derwin James Jr. in LA, Brian Branch in Detroit. All in the top 10 of safeties this year, all playing for playoff teams.

3rd round pick, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, 2nd round pick who signed a four-year, $67 million contract, 1st round pick, the only outlier there is Ar'Darius Washington who was a UDFA in 2021, he’s taken a few years with 2024 being his breakout, but sometimes if you want the output you have to invest.

So if there is one position I want to see the new regime attack with gusto it’s safety.

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Fortunately for the Jets there are a number of safeties expected to be available in the NFL draft with Malaki Starks from Georgia leading the pack. He’s one of the 10 best prospects in the draft for me and I’m sure he’ll get taken early. I’m not sure the Jets should be spending that pick on a safety so I’m going to bypass him and go straight to the player who I think makes the most sense for the Jets.