Rookie Impact Assessment

Edition #389

Good morning! ☕

It wouldn’t be a Jets off-season unless we had a little drama, and that 2023 off-season drama is brought to you by Geico…or Quinnen Williams.

I think it’s too soon to worry about his social media antics, that’s become a standard play for NFL players to increase pressure. But I’m sure there are a few fans getting a little nervous about the delay.

Today, I’m going to take a look at the rookies in the Jets class and rank them in terms of how much impact I expect them to have on the 2023 season.

⏳ Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams has removed all references to the Jets on his social media accounts. This has become a standard and predictable negotiating tactic by professional athletes designed to increase pressure from the fans and media on the franchise. I don't imagine this will impact JD's timeline and I still believe the Jets want to renegotiate the contract of Aaron Rodgers before signing Quinnen to a long-term deal, which is a logical way to do it to ensure you don't handcuff yourself down the line in terms of the cap.

💰 According to Fox Sports Henry McKenna, Quinnen Williams is looking for a contract that pays between $25-$30 million a season, more than Jeffrey Simmons and less than Aaron Donald. I imagine right now Quinnen and his agent are closer to $30 million per and the Jets are closer to $25 million. My projection is he gets around $26.5 million per year.

✍️ The Jets announced that they had signed former Middle Tennessee wide receiver Isaiah Gathings to a contract after he attended the rookie minicamp as a tryout. The 6’4 222lb receiver caught 60 passes for 559 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, but there are two numbers that really stick out for me. Last year he had a 3.2% drop percentage and a 76.9% success rate on contested catches. Both of those numbers are elite. The Jets announced him as a TE, so I imagine that's where he'll compete. Add another name to that already crowded tight end room.

📈 PFF produced their overview of NFL rosters a couple of days ago and had the Jets listed as the 7th best team in the NFL. They also projected the Jets to achieve 10+ wins in the season “The Jets won seven games last year with terrible quarterback play and were a few last-minute losses from 10 victories. They now have a future Hall of Famer at quarterback, a legitimate star at receiver in Garrett Wilson, and a top-five defense. Anything less than 10 wins and a playoff appearance would be a massive disappointment.” The Jets last won 10 or more games back in 2015, and they’ve only had 11 seasons of 10+ wins in their history.

🤝 PFF isn’t the only media outlet to believe in the Jets, Sports Illustrated have the Jets winning 11 games next season - “The Jets are getting a rare treatment for them, being given the full allotment of prime-time games. With Aaron Rodgers under center, New York has suddenly become one of the league’s marquee teams, and the schedule showcases that. The Jets also get to participate in the first Black Friday contest, hosting the Dolphins in Week 12.”

🫠 Bleacher Report had an article outlining the 7 worst decisions of the 2023 NFL off-season - At number one they had the Jets trading for Aaron Rodgers, meaning they believe that’s the worst off-season decision in football. “While Rodgers has won two of the last three MVPs, he also finished 26th in total QBR and is 39 years old. The Jets paid a hefty price to find out if he can regain that MVP form.”

✍️ Former Jets offensive tackle Cedric Ogbuehi signed with who else, the Miami Dolphins. The Jets signed Ogbuehi to a deal earlier this year and then released him over the weekend. I have to imagine Ogbuehi asked for his release, maybe wanting to team up with the rest of the Jets reserves in Miami. He joins Mike White, Braxton Berrios, Dan Feeney, and Tyler Kroft in South Beach.

I was asked a question on Twitter yesterday: “Which Jets rookie will have the biggest impact in 2023?”, and instead of quickly responding, in between changing the nappy of a week-old baby and talking to a 3-year-old about why you can’t just eat chocolate, I thought I’d make that question the focus of today’s article.

For today’s piece, I haven’t included any UDFAs. So here are the 7 drafted rookies ranked by projected impact from most to least (images courtesy of the official Jets website)