Rookie Expectations

Editon #647

Good morning!

Happy Monday. I’m fresh off my first experience of live baseball. It was a great event and showpiece for baseball and I enjoyed a few beers and a taste of ballpark food.

Today I wanted to touch on the expectations for the rookie class of 2024. It’s an interesting class as if all goes well, we won’t see much of our first round pick.

If everything goes to plan, the Jets third round pick will both play and produce more than their first round pick, and it’s not often you can say that about a team hoping to bring home their first championship since Richard Nixon was in office (well technically the Jets won their ring just before Nixon was named the 37th President of the USA, but still.

So what are the expectations for all the Jets rookies heading into this pivotal season?

• Round 1, Pick 11 (from Minnesota), Olu Fashanu, OT from Penn State

The injury to Aaron Rodgers derailed the Jets 2023 season, but the lack of foresight on the offensive line wasn’t far behind. The Jets played a whole host of line combinations last season and while you can’t plan for the quantity of injuries sustained, heading into the season with Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton was always dangerous. It was a risk that backfired mightily.

Joe Douglas seems to learn from his mistakes. He signed two starting tackles and then used his highest value pick to add depth. At one point there was a conversation about who was the better pro tackle prospect, Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu. And while that died down the closer we got to the draft, the Penn State mans talent is undeniable.

With Morgan Moses recovering from surgery and Tyron Smith undergoing load management, Fashanu will get plenty of opportunities to run with the first team.

Historically Moses has been one of the most reliable tackles in football in terms of his availability, but Tyron Smith comes with significant question marks. 2,11,4,13 - Those are the games started by Smith over the last four years. You have to go back all the way to 2015 to find the last season where Smith managed to stay healthy throughout.

What this means is that it’s likely that Fashanu is going to have to play a minimum of 4-5 games for the Jets this season. His pass-blocking was well ahead of his run-blocking for the Nittany Lions and I think his + footwork set him up well to protect Aaron Rodgers, but he won’t open up as many holes as Smith. Fashanu 0 sacks and 17 pressures across three years and 733 pass-blocking snaps at Penn State.

While I’d love Smith to stay healthy this year, I quite like the idea of Olu Fashanu getting his feet wet in some competitive action may actually be a blessing for the Jets over the long-term.

• Round 3, Pick 1 (65th overall, from Carolina), Malachi Corley, WR from Western Kentucky

The Jets wanted Malachi Corley no matter what, and they wanted him to complete their ideal trio of starting receivers alongside Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams.

We had to diversify our passing attack last year with the disappointing output of Lazard but Corley is going to play a ton unless he struggles out of the gate.

Here are receivers the Jets ran out last year and their pass snaps. I’m not including TE’s in this list:

Garrett Wilson - 712
Allen Lazard - 483
Xavier Gipson - 383
Jason Brownlee - 202
Randall Cobb - 158
Malik Taylor - 43
Mecole Hardman Jr - 24

When you really look at this you see opportunity for someone like Corley to come in and make an impact straight away. I could see him getting around 500 pass snaps with Wilson and Williams generating more as the main guys in 2-receiver sets.

Corley’s arrival likely hurts Xavier Gipson the most with the Western Kentucky man running from the slot on over 85% of his snaps last season, but while Gipson was a great story, if we’re being honest he’s a WR5 on most rosters which is likely what he’ll be in New York next season.

Corley brings a real physicality to the Jets with over 2000 of his yards coming after the catch over his three years in college, that 8.2 yards after catch per reception is elite and that 4.8% drop rate is great too.

• Round 4, Pick 34 (134th overall, compensatory from Baltimore), Braelon Allen, RB from Wisconsin

Talking about Joe Douglas learning from his errors, one of his biggest mistakes last year was bringing Dalvin Cook into the building. It robbed Israel Abanikanda of development stats and Cook looked a spent force.

This year Joe has provided Breece Hall the perfect breather with the physically imposing Braelon Allen.

Last year Hall was working his way back from a serious injury and the Jets limited his exposure at the start of the year, and Hackett didn’t realise he could catch a football which further limited him.

I’m not sure how the breakdown is going to work this season but Allen should get some touches in both the pass-catching and running game. If he were to get around 80-90 rushing attempts and 15-20 targets over the course of the season, that would make sense to me.

He had over 2000 yards after contact over three years and forced 145 tackles. If Breece is gassing opponent defences which he’s likely going to do, introducing someone like Allen in the 4th quarter is a kick to the knackers.

• Round 5, Pick 36 (171st overall, compensatory from Philadelphia), Jordan Travis, QB from Florida State

This one is pretty easy. The Jets have absolutely no interest in Jordan doing anything other than practicing and learning from Aaron and Tyrod.

If Jordan Travis is on the field this year it means the Jets have lost their QB1, QB2 and couldn’t find any veteran to keep their season together.

I actually think if both Rodgers and Taylor went down the Jets would try and sign a veteran over playing Travis. They want to give him every opportunity to succeed and to do that, they need to ensure that he has a redshirt year in 2024.

• Round 5, Pick 38 (173rd overall, compensatory from Kansas City and San Francisco), Isaiah Davis, RB from South Dakota State

The only way that Davis gets meaningful minutes is if Breece or Allen go down. He may get a few snaps here and there, and he’s impressed early catching the ball…but he’ll be battling Israel Abanikanda for those mop-up snaps. When Aaron and the Jets have put a 50 burger on the Patriots, maybe Davis gets to run the clock down, but if he’s getting meaningful reps, then again something has gone wrong.

There is a world where he doesn’t make the final cut and the Jets try and sneak him onto the practice squad, but I do think he’ll end up on the 53.

• Round 5, Pick 41 (176th overall, compensatory), Qwan'tez Stiggers, CB

It is absolutely impossible to not love Stiggers and respect the journey that he’s been on. Having had to deal with the death of his father, falling into depression, dropping out of high school before re-enrolling at B.E.S.T in Atlanta and working his way to the NFL via the Fan Controlled Football league and CFL, if you’re going to root for one person this year, make it Stiggers.

While playing in Toronto last season he came down with 5 interceptions and 53 tackles. He’s got 4.45 speed and plenty of burst and explosion.

Stiggers should get some run on special teams this year and may get into some games, but the Jets have the best cornerback trio in football in Sauce, DJ and MC2. He’s a development guy.

• Round 7, Pick 37 (257th overall, compensatory), Jaylen Key, SAF from Alabama

Fortunately for Key he’s coming into the weakest position group on the Jets, but he’s still a real outsider to supplant Adams, Clark or Davis.

Key’s route to sticking will be on special teams. Here’s one thing I’ll say for Key, he has never allowed a touchdown through 787 coverage snaps in college, but he did have four interceptions. He graded out as ‘great’ in explosion and ‘good’ in size, agility and speed.