Only Way Is Up - Zach Wilson Stats

PFF released the 2022 QB Annual

Good morning Jets fans, it’s hump day, it’s one Wednesday closer to the new league year and one week closer to Jets football.

I appreciate that not everyone rates PFF when it comes to their grading system, I still haven’t managed to get my head around it so I don’t blame you. They do however offer a number of statistics that are useful to interpret a football game, not the be-all and end-all, but a part of the evaluation process.

Every year PFF releases their QB annual, packed full of the key stats from the 2021 season. Here are a few stats that I found interesting.

• Zach Wilson took a sack on 26.3% of the snaps he was pressured. The RG position allowed a team-leading 39 pressures, followed by RT with 36, QB himself with 29, LG with 29, LT with 20, and Connor McGovern with just 13.

• His passer rating when kept clean was 79.1, but dropped to 48.6 when pressured.

• He had a 66 passer rating on 3rd down but a 105.4 passer rating when in the red zone.

• Elijah Moore was both his top target on 3rd downs (16 targets) and when under pressure (15 targets). Braxton Berrios was his top target when blitzed (17 targets) and Jamison Crowder was his favorite target in the red zone (7 targets).

• Interestingly Wilson had a better passer rating when he had 2.5 seconds or less to throw (88.5), than when he had 2.6 seconds or more (53.2).

• Zach Wilson’s on-target percentage was league average at 20+ yards down the field (42%), but behind league average at every other depth, including 6% behind the average between 0-9 yards and 8% behind average when throwing behind the line.

• 6 of his interceptions came when he had over 3 seconds to throw the ball, this is as a result of him breaking the pocket and then trying to make things happen afterwards, doing too much.

• 4 of his touchdowns came when getting rid of the ball in under 2 seconds.

• 69% of his passes were to his first read which is only 2% higher than the NFL average, however, his accuracy on these passes was just 40.7% which is significantly lower than the NFL average of 55.6%.

• He checked down less than the NFL average (4% against 7%) but again his accuracy is way below the NFL average of 67.6% at just 42.1%.

It’s interesting to look at Zach’s breakdown from last year and it largely confirms everything we thought we knew. We need to do a better job of protecting him and providing him weapons in the passing game, and he needs to do a better job in terms of his short accuracy and knowing when you get the ball out and avoid pressures/sacks. Some of this is just rookie QB’s being rookie QB’s, sometimes they push and try to make things happen when the play breaks down, sometimes it works like against Tennessee, sometimes it doesn’t.

The right side of the line was a bit of a mess, which is what caused the Jets to make an in-season trade to bring in Laurent Duvernay-Tardif from the Chiefs. He was an improvement but if you break his numbers down, he was still average to below average. We can of course improve that side in free agency, but many expect the Jets to use another premium pick on the offensive line, which will be the third premium pick on OL in as many years.

One thing is for sure, Connor McGovern and George Fant come out of this looking very good. McGovern could be in-line for a contract extension considering he’s signed for just one year, and the same can be said for George Fant who will be given the opportunity to compete for that starting role come the Autumn.

Mock Draft - PFF Two Round

PFF loves a mock draft and usually, I like criticizing their mock draft selections for the Jets. So when I saw they’d released what seems like their hundredth mock of the week, I had to take a look. Here’s the outcome for the Jets:

4. Derek Stingley Jr, LSU, CB

I don’t know what more I can say on Stingley that I haven’t already said. He’s had one year where he forced some turnovers but still gave up over 600 yards and 5 touchdowns. Then he had 2 underwhelming years where he looked bored and got injured. Red flags all over the place, he may be great, but he’s too big a risk.

10. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State, WR

That’s more like it. Everyone has their favorite wide receiver and I change my mind daily, but his route-running skills are elite and I think he’s faster than people give him credit for. He’ll get plenty of separation and can make people miss after the catch.

36. Daxton Hill, Michigan, QB/S

Hill mainly split his time between free safety and slot cornerback for the Wolverines so he has that versatility that the Jets covet in the secondary. He’s a smooth corner with great flexibility and he’ll run a fast 40 at his pro-day. I like him as a single high S.

38. Leo Chenal, Wisconsin, LB

I love Leo as a prospect but I’m not sure he has the coverage ability the Jets need from their linebackers, he played a lot of his football in the box and missed over 20% of his tackles in 2021. I like him, but I just don’t think he’s a natural fit for the Jets.

Overall - I like 50% of this draft, but I absolutely hate that #4 overall pick and believe the Jets can’t afford to take a risk as big as Derek Stingley Jr in the top 5.

Franchise Tags Are Go

Yesterday marked the start of the franchise tag period for teams. Teams can do decide to franchise a player they don’t want to hit free agency, this period will close on the 8th of March before the new league year and free agency begins.

The Jets don’t have any franchise tag candidates this year, so it’s a case of watching what others do ahead of the deadline. All eyes will be on Denver around Dalton Schultz, some aren’t sold on Schultz but for me he has all the transferable skills that the Jets have been missing from the TE position. I’ll be hoping Dallas doesn’t tag him.

Some notable names to watch in general are Davante Adams in Green Bay, Patriots JC Jackson, Chandler Jones, and Orlando Brown. Jessie Bates is an interesting name to watch for the tag with the Bengals, as if he hits the open market I imagine the Jets being one of his first callers. Harold Landry in Tennessee is another name to watch as is Mike Williams in LA.

Combine Politics

The COVID regulations around the combine have been a mess with the NFL flipping and flopping over their own protocols. With the threat of some players boycotting the workouts due to them not being able to have their teams present, the NFL sent a memo to all participants last night clarifying their position.