David, yeah, like you I have been a Makai Lemon fan but I have to tell you, I saw a video of one of his interviews that’s getting a lot of negative flack and he looked stoned out of his mind! From some post combine reports he did not do well during the interview process. Oh, and yes, Jakob Lane looks like a great option if he’s there at 44. And he even blocks😂
I'm here all day long for the Sonny Styles love. He would be an interesting chess piece for Glenn given his background as a safety. Consider a team that doesn't have to jump into a new personnel grouping to show a sub package. Sonny Styles on the field as a THIRD linebacker does just that. That assumes they plan to use McDonald as a true edge and bring in another gap controlling five-tech, but that would be an interesting twist given how valuable Nickel-backs are these days.
I like Styles a lot also. He seems to be the perfect ILB in most defensive styles, no pun intended. Great size, 6'4", 246 lbs., very strong for his frame and has the side-to-side mobility that makes him a ++ pick. If he's still there at 16, which I doubt will happen, the Jets should run up and grab him.
Having picks 2 and 16 are very positive and since pick one is not available, a trade up for anyone in the top half of the first round makes little sense to me. Keep the first and second round assets and trade down if at all possible. I would love to trade out of pick 2 or pick 33.
I would expect a QB trade or signing plus a pick this year.
Having a superpower is one of AG's charms. His interactions with the media and fans are not. Remember, in Woody, we make failure certain.
Jeff, I agree that trading up is not wise for the Jets. While trading down sounds enticing, and it would be nice to add a 3rd pick, imo all depends upon the Jets' board. How many players do they see having true 1st round value, and then how many players do they see in the next tier? I think there are maybe only 7 players with true 1st round value: Mendoza, Bain, Love, Downs, Bailey, Reese, and Styles. The Jets won't be looking to take Love, so that cuts it down to 6, and they won't get a shot at Mendoza, so that leaves 5. Depending upon the size and type of DE they want that probably leaves only 1 of 2 players Bain or Bailey. I don't think the Jets would take Reese and try to turn him into an Edge full time, even though that's what he said he wants to do. So they really couldn't trade down from #2 without risking not getting the DE they want. If they'd be happy with one of the DEs in the next tier, then OK, they could trade down. I'd almost rather trade down from #2 than #33. Unless there was a lot of competition for that spot, they'd probably have to trade down lower than #44 to get a 3rd round pick. At #33 they could get Jacob Rodriguez or Anthony Hill Jr. at LB or Dillon Thieneman at S. I'd hate to miss on one of those players, and I think any one of them most likely would have more value to the Jets, particularly this year than whatever player they'd get lower in the 2nd round and the player in he 3rd round combined.
Rodriguez is fast and creates TO, and Thieneman is blazing fast and a ballhawk. Both could up the number of TOs the Jets D creates dramatically.
I'll be fine if they just stay put and make great picks. If they don't have interest in any of the players I mentioned or they're not available at #33, then they can trade down and I'll be happy.
I agree Craig. Trading down or trading back up into the 1st round is not a wise use of resources given the number of holes there are to fill. You don't have to do everything in this draft and FA, this isn't any kind of playoff run year, it's a rebuilding year.
March 26th is the Pro Day for these Ohio State Athletes. Reese, Styles & Downs are just amazing athletes, from this outstanding program that stole the show at the combine. For me, Arvell Reece took the lead for the second overall pick. This 20 year old scholar athlete ran a 4.46 with a 1.58 ten yard split ( Bailey 1.62 ) at 241 pounds. Reese said all the right things, is definitely a projection , but like what I see.
Teams have needs, if Downs slips, package 16 & 44 to go up and get him. The Washington Commanders at seven, could be the first opportunity. The Commanders have six picks this year, but don’t have a second & Fourth round pick. Reese & Downs.
JO, imo the Jets cannot afford to trade up. IMO packaging #16 and #44 to trade up for Downs would be foolish. I love him, but he's not even a ballhawk. They need more picks, not fewer. They don't have the luxury of falling in love with a player. While they need some leaders and dynamic players, they also have ton of holes. I don't envy Mougey at all.
IMO the Jets really cannot afford to roll with a projection at #2, but they really don't hae a choice. They need someone that they can count on. The problem with this draft is that there really isn't anyone that's worthy of the #2 pick and that isn't a projection in one way or another. It's typical Jets' horrible luck. They really are cursed!
I really like Sadiq, but I'd be shocked if the Jets did this after taking Taylor last year. I think they're more likely to sign a FA TE than draft one, especially early.
Very impressed with the very deep Safety class, definitely double dipping with a third day pick, but in Downs you have a 10 year Pro Bowl Safety. 16 & 33 , or 16, 44 & 103 are overpays but the Commanders in their rebuild should have interest.The fact that Downs could slide seems ridiculous, but teams have needs.
I’m for Bailey at 2, best receiver available at 16 and Simpson at 33. We need to draft a QB this year and next year till we find our guy. QB is a crap shoot and NFL QB’s can come anywhere in the process just ask Purdy.
Ron has a point. David Bailey and his strengths/weaknesses overlap a lot with Will McDonald. If we're assuming that Aaron Glenn is going to continue to shift this defense away from Saleh's four man penetrating front to Glenn's hybrid gap control front, I think it'd be reasonable to see the team look to invest in an edge hybrid early. Will McDonald, unless the Jets are working towards moving him, is going to start. The other side of the defense would need an edge with more versatility so that the team could seamlessly shift between fronts.
A really good way to look at the shift from a four man front to a three man front is to see the four man front's 5-tech, 1-tech, 3-tech, wide-9 correlating to the three man front's 5-tech, nose/shade, and 5-tech, and edge/hybrid. You'll probably see two of the three current jets defensive tackles (Sweat, Phillips, Briggs) filling the nose/shade/1-tech spot and the 3-tech/5-tech spot. What we know much less about is that last 5-tech and the edge. Do they roll with a Will McDonald type at the 5-tech? I have trouble seeing him filling a role where the main priority is gap discipline. Those guys are easier to find in the middle rounds or free agency because the position is less about pass rushing juice and more about disciplined gap control.
I could totally see them considering Rueben Bain because of how he'd provide that gap discipline while also providing a bit of juice off of the edge. I think filling the 5-tech role requires less value, but if the Jets consider Bain a future All-Pro, it'd be hard to pass that up. On the other side of the equation is Arvel Reese. If the Jets fill the 5-tech role in free agency, I think that suggests they can't pass up Reese's versatility. He wouldn't replace McDonald, would stay on the field a lot more than a traditional edge/hybrid, and would be used in a lot of non-traditional ways. Glenn and Mougey can go a lot of different directions given the talent available at the top of the draft and how Bailey, Reese, and Bain fill different roles.
I not so sure that WMD starts. They may keep him as a situational pass rusher in the 4-3 or as an OLB pass rusher in the 3-4.
I really hope that they aren't even strongly considering Reese. It's great that he's so flexible, but I'd rather have a really good player at one position, than a jack of all trades, master of none. He has started for 2 years, doesn't have a single interception or forced fumble and only 2 PDs. He had 69 combined tackles this past season, but did have 10 TFLs and 6.5 sacks. He wants to be a pass rusher, but he's the same size as WMD so I don't see the point in adding him and trying to use him differently than how he wants to be used (as a pass rusher), as he won't be very happy. He'd be a 3-4 OLB rushing the passer and in a 4-3 he'd blitz or be a QB spy against running QBs. He's a great athlete, fast, and ascending player, but I'd rather take a true DE, and then at LB add Jacob Rodriguez or Anthony Hill Jr. (I don't think they'll have a shot at Styles unless they take him at #2, and I think that's too high).
If they take Reese I'll hope for the best, but I really want Rodriguez and his ability to create TOs.
It’s hard telling how the snaps will play out. If I had to bet, I’d say they want 3-4 interior-ish defensive linemen (Sweat, Phillips, Briggs, and one more guy who can play the 5 and the 3 interchangeably) playing between 40 percent of snaps and 60 percent of snaps. I can see McDonald playing about half of the snaps while being protected against situations he’s uncomfortable in. Bain, honestly, might make the most sense, but bee wouldn’t provide much scheme versatility in the sense that he is a defensive end (not a hybrid). There will be a learning curve if they ask him to learn to drop into coverage. With Reese, they’d get him into plenty of pass rushing situations while giving him plenty of looks as an alley defender. It all depends on how they want to build the defense and, honestly, there aren’t wrong answers. They’ll tailor the unit to their strengths
Every thing I’m seeing on Bain is he’s dipping because of those 30 3/4 arms! Brugler and others have been on this from day one but have been more vociferous since his numbers became official! Minus a trade down I think It’s gonna be Bain, Styles with Downs the only other option. Bain measured in at only 6’2” 262 so the 3-tech idea might not be as likely as many suggested pre combine!
I don’t even see him being utilized as a 3-tech very much. He could definitely handle some snaps as a pass rushing 3 on passing downs, but I think his versatility is in his ability to play a tight 5 or even a 4. In that championship game, he OWNED the tackles with strength and discipline. I’d also throw out that most of these guys are lighter than they’ll be in season. I’d bet money that Bain was playing at 270-275 during the season
Scott, eh, I think there are better options. I get it,you want sacks! We all do. But we already have our David Bailey! He wears #9. (WMD.) They are both about 6’4” 250 and neither one of them can play the run. It’s gotta be Reese because of his versatility against the run,in coverage and as a rusher or Downs as the QB of the defense. Of course SonnyStyles has put his name in the hat as well with his incredible athleticism! I would prefer him over Bailey as well.
I agree Reese probably is the better fit for the Jets needs given WMD and Bailey are somewhat repetitive skill sets. However, WMD is not nearly good enough to pass on Bailey if you think he's the best player on the board. Giving up 5 years of control on a potentially elite pass rusher, because you have 2 years of control of a decent pass rusher could be a huge mistake. If you think Reese is the better player, go for it, otherwise you take the top talent. The Jets could use help at basically every position other than OT.
I'm not sure what his trade value is, if it's not high enough you hold him as a depth peice and situational pass rusher. He's still cheap this year and I don't think they need to decide on his 5th year option until after the draft
They could keep WMD as a situational pass rusher in the 4-3, and as an OLB in the 3-4. It is my understanding that in some versions of the 3-4 the Edges don't have to be as big as in a 4-3, so he could possibly play DE in the 3-4 some of the time.
Think about Bailey rushing from one side and WMD rushing from the OLB position on the other side along with Briggs at DE opposite Bailey, and the new NT in the middle.
Old McDonald's only value is as a situational pass-rusher. He's definitely NOT an OLB, he just doesn't have the tools. Irrespective of what type of defense is going to be run, they need to have a DE/Edge that is about 6'4" or 6'5" and 285-290 that can set an edge on a consistent basis. And that's the other issue with McDonald, he's erratic and inconsistent. He's been here for 3 years and has been inconsistent the whole time. He's like a house afire early in the season and opposing offenses get his number and he disappears. He had 10.5 sacks in 2024, but 8.5 of those came in the first 7 games and then he disappeared. The same thing happened in 2025, he got up to 8 sacks, but 4 were in one game against the Browns. After that nothing but goose eggs. The caveat for last year is that the entire defense fell apart, but he's not the type of edge who can be a game-wrecker and create sacks by his physical ability alone. He's just not big enough or strong enough. I bet he will come to camp at around 240 and immediately sweats 10 lbs. off, never to be seen again.
Based on what I'm reading and hearing, in some 3-4 schemes the DEs don't have to be 285-290. Some teams are going with 240-250 lb DEs or at least one of them is that size.
I disagree, Ron. Bailey is a better pass rusher than WMD and he's also a good bit better vs the run, but you may be correct that the Jets aren't considering Bailey because they already have WMD.
What's Reese done in coverage? #2 is way too high to take a LB imo, even Styles or Reese. At least Styles has had 182 combined tackles over the last 2 seasons and he started all 4, and he had 3 FFs, an interception and 9 PDs, while Reese only started 2 years, had 112 tackles combined over the last 2 seasons, and goose eggs for FFs, Interceptions and 2 PDs. I know that the way in which Reese was used had a negative impact on his stats. If they're going to take him as an OLB for either the 4-3 or the 3-4 and use hims pretty much solely for attacking the ball, be it in the QBs hands passing or a RBs, fine. He could be a dynamic weapon there. He certainly should have the speed and athleticism to cover TEs and RBs over the middle as well, but I don't know that he's ever done that very much.
If the Jets aren't taking an Edge at #2, then I hope they can trade down.
I'd take Styles over Reese every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Is he better than Will? He played in the Big 12! He played on a really good defense so he didn’t get the amount of double teams WMD saw in college. I think they are similar players! Bailey is already 23! Will be 24 in August! Reese and Styles are heading towards their 21st Birthdays! You and I know it’s not about this season. No matter how many sacks Bailey gets we are going nowhere this season! Bailey’s is a below average run defender! Both Reese and Styles are more versatile and better long term investments. I like Bailey a lot. Just not for us. As for Bain the 3 tech stuff was all over the place. Many draft guys including Brugler and others suggested that might be his eventual spot! He showed up 10 lbs lighter and an inch shorter than expected! Just my opinion but I’m not seeing him in the top 10 at this point!
Excellent points! I think he is a better pass rusher than WMD even if he did play in the big 12. He did very well in the playoffs against teams from other conferences.
His age is a consideration, and it's not just about this season, but this season is important to for Glenn and Mougey. They might make a move or two that are more for this year than for the future to try to save their jobs. Bailey could still get sacks in the future.
I don't know that Styles is all that versatile. He's a very strong defender against the run, and is a tackling machine. I'm not sure how he is vs the pass. I don't like Reese, even though he's very athletic and talented. IMO LBs should be tough and create TOs. Reese doesn't. He's fast, can be an effective spy against running QBs, can blitz well. Again, I'm not sure even with his speed and athleticism, how good he is against the pass, since he has only 2 PDs and no interceptions in colllege.
I'd rather see the Jets trade down to around 7 or 8 and take a CB or Styles there. If we had a good young, HC who would definitely be back next year, I'd even be in favor of trading the #2 pick for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks next year and a 3rd this year.
Scott, I'm with you on Bailey and a WR at #16, but not on Simpson. I disagree that the Jets "need" to draft a QB this year. If they want to draft one, then ok, do it in the 4th or 5th round, not the 2nd. They have too many needs/holes.
I'm not as against Simpson as I was, but I still think that he is too small and won't be able to stand up to the pounding in the NFL, and doesn't have the arm strength for Northeast winter winds.
If they draft a QB, I'd rather it be either Taylen Green or Cole Payton, bigger, more athletic types.
There has been reporting that Simpson finished the year under 200 lbs because of losing weight from gastritis and having a back injury. It kind of sounds like he got beat up quite a bit after Oklahoma showed the rest of the SEC a blueprint for stopping Bama. I’ve also heard that the consensus is that Simpson doesn’t have any elite physical traits. His only elite trait, however, is an important one: processing. I guess we’ll see what Reich values
Processing is definitely a very important trait, probably the most important trait for a QB, but we saw what happened with Chad Pennington post injuries. A QB has to have a pretty strong arm to thrive in NorthEast winter winds, and has to have some size and escapability so that he isn't playing banged up all the time.
I really like this group we have assembled here! Lots of football lifers! I think we all have our thoughts and ideas but we all also know none of those thoughts matter to the folks at 1Jets Drive😂
It's going to be really interesting to see what they do and how they go about it. I really hope that Mougey puts on a clinic on how to be a great GM, but I fear it's going to be the exact opposite and yet another cluster f*ck!
Another great newsletter in the books today, David!
If Downs fell to the Jets at #16, that would be awesome! Around 1/2 of me would be all over taking him there. The other 1/2 would be, wait a minute. That's where you were going to take a WR, and the WR choices at #33 or #44 would be less appealing. As much as I love Downs, he isn't really a ballhawk like Thieneman, Clark, Kilgore, and maybe Haulcy. The problem with Haulcy is he's slower, so I've lost interest in him. The Jets need a leader in the secondary and a dominant player, and that's Downs, but they need a ballhawk equally as much and maybe more imo. If they take a WR at #16, they could probably get Thieneman at #33 or maybe Clark or Kilgore at #44. I doubt that they'd take two Safeties in the first two rounds, as Jets fans would be apoplectic and be seeing visions of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. If they got Downs at #16 and then took Clark or Kilgore at #44, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
What's the point of signing a starting S in FA if they're gonna draft Downs at #16 if he's there? I've come around to the point where they can't take him at #2, they have to take a DE. Since safeties are generally cheaper in FA than other positions, I think I'd rather the Jets sign one of Gilman, Byard, Curl, Blankenship, and Cross, then add either Thieneman, Clark or Kilgore. In that way they'd most likely have two vets starting, but then in passing situations and they brought on an extra S, it would be great to have a young ballhawk back there free to go for the ball.
TIER 1 FA Safeties
In his 6-year career, Gilman (he's 28) has had 5 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, 27 PDs, and had 90 tackles combined the last two years.
In his 6-year career, Curl (he's 26) has had 5 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, 28 PDs, and had well over 100 tackles 2 of the last 3 years. In addition, he has stayed healthier and been a starter his entire career, whereas Gilman either didn't start until his 4th year or was injured a lot, as his first 3 years he started, 1, 3, and 5 games, then jumped to 14 his 4th year.
Byard is the ballhawk of the group. in his 12-year career (he's 32), he's had 36 interceptions, including 8 his second year and 7 this past year, but there have been years where he didn't have any. He's also had only 4 forced fumbles, 81 PDs (twice in his career he's had 13 or more, so he's not just a ballhawk), and four times in his career he's had over 100 combined tackles, and had 93 this past year. He's the oldest, undoubtedly the most expensive, and will probably re-up with Chicago, but I'd love to add him.
TIER 2 FA Safeties
In his 4-year career, Blankenship (he's 27) has had 9 interceptions, only 1 FF, 23 PDs, and only had 161 combined tackles over the last 2 years, but had 113 in 2023. He's started the last 3 years of his career.
In his 4-year career, Nick Cross (he's 24) has had 5 interceptions (with 3 in 2024), 2 FFs, 12 PDs, but has been a tackling machine each of the last two seasons (his only 2 starting) with 146 in 2024 and 120 this past season.
Curl and Cross are the two youngest and could help the Jets the longest, but that wouldn't happen. They'll be lucky to sign one of Gilman and Curl (I'd prefer Curl because he's two years younger and has started his entire career, but he'll probably be more expensive than Gilman and may not even make it to FA, whereas I think Gilman will Gilman's injury history scares me. Last year was the first year in his career where he started every game. He missed 6 games last season, and 3 in 2024, before that he was a reserve.
If the Jets were to sign Cross, he'd probably have to start over Moore.
If I had my way the Jets would sign Byard and draft Clark or Kilgore and add an additional depth S either in FA or the 4th or 5th round.
Without a question of a doubt, we have learned that David and the Torch and Pitchfork Brigade are not only die hard Jet fans but also highly intelligent NFL fans.
Taking that intelligent fact into consideration, we all know that the Underwear Olympics is the start of the NFL Lying Season which ends with the end of the Mad Hugger’s Show in April.
Have you noticed whenever there is talk of draft busts like Richardson or players that most teams don’t want, Kyler Murray as an example, some knucklehead writer floods the internet with “ the Jets are the perfect spot for them”.
Hopefully Mougey isn’t a garbage collector. Hopefully Glenn’s blind affection for Fields has taught him a lesson.
Ironically David pointing out JaKobi Lane comes at a time when his teammate Makai Lemon supposedly had the worst interview sessions in Combine history. One adjective used to describe them was disastrous.
Of course before the Combine started, Lemon’s name many times was associated with the Jets taking him at 16, figures.
The average speed for the safety/ corner group was the fastest in combine history.
One question for the highly intelligent personnel evaluators who frequent TJW with professional like evaluations.
Before the combine started, the players most likely mentioned as the Jets first pick were Bailey, Reese and Bain.
Can we add Sonny Styles to the conversation. Hard to ignore a 6’4, 244 pound player who can run a 4.46 forty, ironically college teammate Reese ran the same exact 4.46.
Styles brother Lorenzo , a corner/safety ran a 4.27 forty. Pre combine rating day three draft pick at safety. Jets need safeties.
From the Torch and Pitchfork Brigades “ What the hell were you thinking about”, this from Cimini.
8. He said what? Glenn's "superpower" boast created quite the stir. He was mocked on every talk show from local radio to ESPN's "First Take," and he appeared in a green Superman outfit on Wednesday's back page of the New York Post.
In case you missed it, Glenn was asked at the combine to explain why he decided to take over the playcalling on defense even though he hired a new defensive coordinator, Brian Duker.
"To me, playcalling is my superpower," the coach told reporters, trying to squash speculation that owner Woody Johnson twisted his arm into assuming the role.
Glenn was the Lions' playcaller from 2021 to 2024, and here's how they ranked in EPA (Expected Points Added): 31st, 31st, 23rd and eighth. He did a terrific job in that final season, overcoming an inordinate number of injuries.
Constant Kyler Murray comments, are just disturbing. It’s too early to trust Mougey, he is done well so far, but disaster for this team is always looming. This will be a big week, major cuts and major moves throughout the NFL, drama. By the end of March we will have a pretty good idea of how good of a GM we have.
David, I’m not remotely sold on Simpson. Especially not at 16. For me it’s not about him not being a good prospect so much as the fact we would be investing a premium pick on a player thats just not ready after only 14 career starts. And then there’s the question of who else is there at that spot? Pretty sure whoever that is would be a likely day one starter. And that’s what this team needs,quality starters! As for Anthony Richardson, I could see the Patriots looking at him as a QB3 to develop and trade like they did with a similar player Joe Milton.
I'm not a fan of Kyler in general, and based on my understanding of Glenn and Reich I don't think he's what either would look for in a QB. With that said if he is released there's no reason to sign anywhere for more than league minimum since it's just offset from what the Cards owe. In which Jets could do much worse than league minimum for Kyler
Having Murray would be a net negative for the team, it's just that simple. He's a failed phenom who never panned out, and he just doesn't present the picture of a winning QB.
As I said he wouldn’t be my preference and I doubt he’s the FOs preference. But let’s not pretend the other options are good either. There’s no one available that’s obviously better than Murray and he’ll probably be $5m-$10m cheaper. Chances are anyone the Jets have at QB next season will be a negative
David, yeah, like you I have been a Makai Lemon fan but I have to tell you, I saw a video of one of his interviews that’s getting a lot of negative flack and he looked stoned out of his mind! From some post combine reports he did not do well during the interview process. Oh, and yes, Jakob Lane looks like a great option if he’s there at 44. And he even blocks😂
I think a lot of due diligence is required for Lemon.
On the other hand I saw a video of Lane (copied below) and he couldn't have come across any better IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5juEUYKbccU
Agreed! As Ricky Ricardo said to Lucy,” you have some splaning to do😡 if we pick Lemon and he turns out to be a problem 🤦♂️
No you have a problem if Lemon turns into a lemon.
As Alf would say, a little Earth humor, lololololol
If you've gone on Jet-X at all, the picture they have of Lemon looks like he's part of the Manson Family, lol.
Carnell Tate didn’t have a great forty, top 3 WR ‘s could slide.
At 4?
Apologies, I’m my usual dazed and confused, Boston is my fourth overall WR. Planned on taking him at 16. Post Combine , like TE Kenyon Sadiq at 16
Denzel Boston for me at 4 , because of fit.
I'd be shocked if Boston is still available at #44. Everything I've seen has him projected to go somewhere between #15 and #27.
Ooops, 44😂
I'm here all day long for the Sonny Styles love. He would be an interesting chess piece for Glenn given his background as a safety. Consider a team that doesn't have to jump into a new personnel grouping to show a sub package. Sonny Styles on the field as a THIRD linebacker does just that. That assumes they plan to use McDonald as a true edge and bring in another gap controlling five-tech, but that would be an interesting twist given how valuable Nickel-backs are these days.
I like Styles a lot also. He seems to be the perfect ILB in most defensive styles, no pun intended. Great size, 6'4", 246 lbs., very strong for his frame and has the side-to-side mobility that makes him a ++ pick. If he's still there at 16, which I doubt will happen, the Jets should run up and grab him.
What do you do at WR then?
Having picks 2 and 16 are very positive and since pick one is not available, a trade up for anyone in the top half of the first round makes little sense to me. Keep the first and second round assets and trade down if at all possible. I would love to trade out of pick 2 or pick 33.
I would expect a QB trade or signing plus a pick this year.
Having a superpower is one of AG's charms. His interactions with the media and fans are not. Remember, in Woody, we make failure certain.
Jeff, I agree that trading up is not wise for the Jets. While trading down sounds enticing, and it would be nice to add a 3rd pick, imo all depends upon the Jets' board. How many players do they see having true 1st round value, and then how many players do they see in the next tier? I think there are maybe only 7 players with true 1st round value: Mendoza, Bain, Love, Downs, Bailey, Reese, and Styles. The Jets won't be looking to take Love, so that cuts it down to 6, and they won't get a shot at Mendoza, so that leaves 5. Depending upon the size and type of DE they want that probably leaves only 1 of 2 players Bain or Bailey. I don't think the Jets would take Reese and try to turn him into an Edge full time, even though that's what he said he wants to do. So they really couldn't trade down from #2 without risking not getting the DE they want. If they'd be happy with one of the DEs in the next tier, then OK, they could trade down. I'd almost rather trade down from #2 than #33. Unless there was a lot of competition for that spot, they'd probably have to trade down lower than #44 to get a 3rd round pick. At #33 they could get Jacob Rodriguez or Anthony Hill Jr. at LB or Dillon Thieneman at S. I'd hate to miss on one of those players, and I think any one of them most likely would have more value to the Jets, particularly this year than whatever player they'd get lower in the 2nd round and the player in he 3rd round combined.
Rodriguez is fast and creates TO, and Thieneman is blazing fast and a ballhawk. Both could up the number of TOs the Jets D creates dramatically.
I'll be fine if they just stay put and make great picks. If they don't have interest in any of the players I mentioned or they're not available at #33, then they can trade down and I'll be happy.
I agree Craig. Trading down or trading back up into the 1st round is not a wise use of resources given the number of holes there are to fill. You don't have to do everything in this draft and FA, this isn't any kind of playoff run year, it's a rebuilding year.
After the Combine, TE Kenyon Sadiq at 16.
March 26th is the Pro Day for these Ohio State Athletes. Reese, Styles & Downs are just amazing athletes, from this outstanding program that stole the show at the combine. For me, Arvell Reece took the lead for the second overall pick. This 20 year old scholar athlete ran a 4.46 with a 1.58 ten yard split ( Bailey 1.62 ) at 241 pounds. Reese said all the right things, is definitely a projection , but like what I see.
Teams have needs, if Downs slips, package 16 & 44 to go up and get him. The Washington Commanders at seven, could be the first opportunity. The Commanders have six picks this year, but don’t have a second & Fourth round pick. Reese & Downs.
Forget about trading up or down. The value just isn't there. As much as I like Downs, giving up two picks for him is a non-starter.
JO, imo the Jets cannot afford to trade up. IMO packaging #16 and #44 to trade up for Downs would be foolish. I love him, but he's not even a ballhawk. They need more picks, not fewer. They don't have the luxury of falling in love with a player. While they need some leaders and dynamic players, they also have ton of holes. I don't envy Mougey at all.
IMO the Jets really cannot afford to roll with a projection at #2, but they really don't hae a choice. They need someone that they can count on. The problem with this draft is that there really isn't anyone that's worthy of the #2 pick and that isn't a projection in one way or another. It's typical Jets' horrible luck. They really are cursed!
I nominate you to be the next Jet GM unfortunately Woody comes with the deal.
If he is the highest rated play maker, why not. That would make Ron Alexander delirious, he loves tight ends.
I really like Sadiq, but I'd be shocked if the Jets did this after taking Taylor last year. I think they're more likely to sign a FA TE than draft one, especially early.
I would love that.
Very impressed with the very deep Safety class, definitely double dipping with a third day pick, but in Downs you have a 10 year Pro Bowl Safety. 16 & 33 , or 16, 44 & 103 are overpays but the Commanders in their rebuild should have interest.The fact that Downs could slide seems ridiculous, but teams have needs.
Sign me up for that!
I’m for Bailey at 2, best receiver available at 16 and Simpson at 33. We need to draft a QB this year and next year till we find our guy. QB is a crap shoot and NFL QB’s can come anywhere in the process just ask Purdy.
Ron has a point. David Bailey and his strengths/weaknesses overlap a lot with Will McDonald. If we're assuming that Aaron Glenn is going to continue to shift this defense away from Saleh's four man penetrating front to Glenn's hybrid gap control front, I think it'd be reasonable to see the team look to invest in an edge hybrid early. Will McDonald, unless the Jets are working towards moving him, is going to start. The other side of the defense would need an edge with more versatility so that the team could seamlessly shift between fronts.
A really good way to look at the shift from a four man front to a three man front is to see the four man front's 5-tech, 1-tech, 3-tech, wide-9 correlating to the three man front's 5-tech, nose/shade, and 5-tech, and edge/hybrid. You'll probably see two of the three current jets defensive tackles (Sweat, Phillips, Briggs) filling the nose/shade/1-tech spot and the 3-tech/5-tech spot. What we know much less about is that last 5-tech and the edge. Do they roll with a Will McDonald type at the 5-tech? I have trouble seeing him filling a role where the main priority is gap discipline. Those guys are easier to find in the middle rounds or free agency because the position is less about pass rushing juice and more about disciplined gap control.
I could totally see them considering Rueben Bain because of how he'd provide that gap discipline while also providing a bit of juice off of the edge. I think filling the 5-tech role requires less value, but if the Jets consider Bain a future All-Pro, it'd be hard to pass that up. On the other side of the equation is Arvel Reese. If the Jets fill the 5-tech role in free agency, I think that suggests they can't pass up Reese's versatility. He wouldn't replace McDonald, would stay on the field a lot more than a traditional edge/hybrid, and would be used in a lot of non-traditional ways. Glenn and Mougey can go a lot of different directions given the talent available at the top of the draft and how Bailey, Reese, and Bain fill different roles.
Would seem to be imperative that the Jets obtain a 5-tech in FA. Looking for an additional Two Edges in the Draft or FA
I bet they snag a starting caliber 5-tech in free agency. They'll probably scoop up an edge with some potential, as well.
They have an extra 11.5 in Cap Space due to the Sweat/ Johnson trade
I not so sure that WMD starts. They may keep him as a situational pass rusher in the 4-3 or as an OLB pass rusher in the 3-4.
I really hope that they aren't even strongly considering Reese. It's great that he's so flexible, but I'd rather have a really good player at one position, than a jack of all trades, master of none. He has started for 2 years, doesn't have a single interception or forced fumble and only 2 PDs. He had 69 combined tackles this past season, but did have 10 TFLs and 6.5 sacks. He wants to be a pass rusher, but he's the same size as WMD so I don't see the point in adding him and trying to use him differently than how he wants to be used (as a pass rusher), as he won't be very happy. He'd be a 3-4 OLB rushing the passer and in a 4-3 he'd blitz or be a QB spy against running QBs. He's a great athlete, fast, and ascending player, but I'd rather take a true DE, and then at LB add Jacob Rodriguez or Anthony Hill Jr. (I don't think they'll have a shot at Styles unless they take him at #2, and I think that's too high).
If they take Reese I'll hope for the best, but I really want Rodriguez and his ability to create TOs.
The Jets' luck really sucks!
Old McDonald starting would be the worst, he's repeatedly shown that he's not up to it and his only value is as a situational pass-rusher.
It’s hard telling how the snaps will play out. If I had to bet, I’d say they want 3-4 interior-ish defensive linemen (Sweat, Phillips, Briggs, and one more guy who can play the 5 and the 3 interchangeably) playing between 40 percent of snaps and 60 percent of snaps. I can see McDonald playing about half of the snaps while being protected against situations he’s uncomfortable in. Bain, honestly, might make the most sense, but bee wouldn’t provide much scheme versatility in the sense that he is a defensive end (not a hybrid). There will be a learning curve if they ask him to learn to drop into coverage. With Reese, they’d get him into plenty of pass rushing situations while giving him plenty of looks as an alley defender. It all depends on how they want to build the defense and, honestly, there aren’t wrong answers. They’ll tailor the unit to their strengths
Every thing I’m seeing on Bain is he’s dipping because of those 30 3/4 arms! Brugler and others have been on this from day one but have been more vociferous since his numbers became official! Minus a trade down I think It’s gonna be Bain, Styles with Downs the only other option. Bain measured in at only 6’2” 262 so the 3-tech idea might not be as likely as many suggested pre combine!
I don’t even see him being utilized as a 3-tech very much. He could definitely handle some snaps as a pass rushing 3 on passing downs, but I think his versatility is in his ability to play a tight 5 or even a 4. In that championship game, he OWNED the tackles with strength and discipline. I’d also throw out that most of these guys are lighter than they’ll be in season. I’d bet money that Bain was playing at 270-275 during the season
I never understood the talk about Bain moving inside. That never made any sense to me. Even at 275, he was too light.
Scott, eh, I think there are better options. I get it,you want sacks! We all do. But we already have our David Bailey! He wears #9. (WMD.) They are both about 6’4” 250 and neither one of them can play the run. It’s gotta be Reese because of his versatility against the run,in coverage and as a rusher or Downs as the QB of the defense. Of course SonnyStyles has put his name in the hat as well with his incredible athleticism! I would prefer him over Bailey as well.
I agree Reese probably is the better fit for the Jets needs given WMD and Bailey are somewhat repetitive skill sets. However, WMD is not nearly good enough to pass on Bailey if you think he's the best player on the board. Giving up 5 years of control on a potentially elite pass rusher, because you have 2 years of control of a decent pass rusher could be a huge mistake. If you think Reese is the better player, go for it, otherwise you take the top talent. The Jets could use help at basically every position other than OT.
Jonathan, then what do you do with WMD? What’s his trade value? I just don’t see Bailey as an option because his poor run grades!
I'm not sure what his trade value is, if it's not high enough you hold him as a depth peice and situational pass rusher. He's still cheap this year and I don't think they need to decide on his 5th year option until after the draft
They could keep WMD as a situational pass rusher in the 4-3, and as an OLB in the 3-4. It is my understanding that in some versions of the 3-4 the Edges don't have to be as big as in a 4-3, so he could possibly play DE in the 3-4 some of the time.
Think about Bailey rushing from one side and WMD rushing from the OLB position on the other side along with Briggs at DE opposite Bailey, and the new NT in the middle.
I don’t think you can put Bailey and WMD on the field together! Teams would run us to death! 😂
No, not on running downs, but in sure passing situations I think you could with something like this:
Bailey (LDE) Sweat (NT) Briggs (RDE)
Jacob Rodriguez (LOLB) Sherwood (ILB) Anzalone (ILB) WMD (ROLB)
Old McDonald's only value is as a situational pass-rusher. He's definitely NOT an OLB, he just doesn't have the tools. Irrespective of what type of defense is going to be run, they need to have a DE/Edge that is about 6'4" or 6'5" and 285-290 that can set an edge on a consistent basis. And that's the other issue with McDonald, he's erratic and inconsistent. He's been here for 3 years and has been inconsistent the whole time. He's like a house afire early in the season and opposing offenses get his number and he disappears. He had 10.5 sacks in 2024, but 8.5 of those came in the first 7 games and then he disappeared. The same thing happened in 2025, he got up to 8 sacks, but 4 were in one game against the Browns. After that nothing but goose eggs. The caveat for last year is that the entire defense fell apart, but he's not the type of edge who can be a game-wrecker and create sacks by his physical ability alone. He's just not big enough or strong enough. I bet he will come to camp at around 240 and immediately sweats 10 lbs. off, never to be seen again.
Based on what I'm reading and hearing, in some 3-4 schemes the DEs don't have to be 285-290. Some teams are going with 240-250 lb DEs or at least one of them is that size.
I disagree, Ron. Bailey is a better pass rusher than WMD and he's also a good bit better vs the run, but you may be correct that the Jets aren't considering Bailey because they already have WMD.
What's Reese done in coverage? #2 is way too high to take a LB imo, even Styles or Reese. At least Styles has had 182 combined tackles over the last 2 seasons and he started all 4, and he had 3 FFs, an interception and 9 PDs, while Reese only started 2 years, had 112 tackles combined over the last 2 seasons, and goose eggs for FFs, Interceptions and 2 PDs. I know that the way in which Reese was used had a negative impact on his stats. If they're going to take him as an OLB for either the 4-3 or the 3-4 and use hims pretty much solely for attacking the ball, be it in the QBs hands passing or a RBs, fine. He could be a dynamic weapon there. He certainly should have the speed and athleticism to cover TEs and RBs over the middle as well, but I don't know that he's ever done that very much.
If the Jets aren't taking an Edge at #2, then I hope they can trade down.
I'd take Styles over Reese every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Is he better than Will? He played in the Big 12! He played on a really good defense so he didn’t get the amount of double teams WMD saw in college. I think they are similar players! Bailey is already 23! Will be 24 in August! Reese and Styles are heading towards their 21st Birthdays! You and I know it’s not about this season. No matter how many sacks Bailey gets we are going nowhere this season! Bailey’s is a below average run defender! Both Reese and Styles are more versatile and better long term investments. I like Bailey a lot. Just not for us. As for Bain the 3 tech stuff was all over the place. Many draft guys including Brugler and others suggested that might be his eventual spot! He showed up 10 lbs lighter and an inch shorter than expected! Just my opinion but I’m not seeing him in the top 10 at this point!
Excellent points! I think he is a better pass rusher than WMD even if he did play in the big 12. He did very well in the playoffs against teams from other conferences.
His age is a consideration, and it's not just about this season, but this season is important to for Glenn and Mougey. They might make a move or two that are more for this year than for the future to try to save their jobs. Bailey could still get sacks in the future.
I don't know that Styles is all that versatile. He's a very strong defender against the run, and is a tackling machine. I'm not sure how he is vs the pass. I don't like Reese, even though he's very athletic and talented. IMO LBs should be tough and create TOs. Reese doesn't. He's fast, can be an effective spy against running QBs, can blitz well. Again, I'm not sure even with his speed and athleticism, how good he is against the pass, since he has only 2 PDs and no interceptions in colllege.
I'd rather see the Jets trade down to around 7 or 8 and take a CB or Styles there. If we had a good young, HC who would definitely be back next year, I'd even be in favor of trading the #2 pick for a teams 1st and 2nd round picks next year and a 3rd this year.
I don't think there's any good value at #2.
Scott, I'm with you on Bailey and a WR at #16, but not on Simpson. I disagree that the Jets "need" to draft a QB this year. If they want to draft one, then ok, do it in the 4th or 5th round, not the 2nd. They have too many needs/holes.
I'm not as against Simpson as I was, but I still think that he is too small and won't be able to stand up to the pounding in the NFL, and doesn't have the arm strength for Northeast winter winds.
If they draft a QB, I'd rather it be either Taylen Green or Cole Payton, bigger, more athletic types.
There has been reporting that Simpson finished the year under 200 lbs because of losing weight from gastritis and having a back injury. It kind of sounds like he got beat up quite a bit after Oklahoma showed the rest of the SEC a blueprint for stopping Bama. I’ve also heard that the consensus is that Simpson doesn’t have any elite physical traits. His only elite trait, however, is an important one: processing. I guess we’ll see what Reich values
Processing is definitely a very important trait, probably the most important trait for a QB, but we saw what happened with Chad Pennington post injuries. A QB has to have a pretty strong arm to thrive in NorthEast winter winds, and has to have some size and escapability so that he isn't playing banged up all the time.
I really like this group we have assembled here! Lots of football lifers! I think we all have our thoughts and ideas but we all also know none of those thoughts matter to the folks at 1Jets Drive😂
It's going to be really interesting to see what they do and how they go about it. I really hope that Mougey puts on a clinic on how to be a great GM, but I fear it's going to be the exact opposite and yet another cluster f*ck!
God I hope not!
Another great newsletter in the books today, David!
If Downs fell to the Jets at #16, that would be awesome! Around 1/2 of me would be all over taking him there. The other 1/2 would be, wait a minute. That's where you were going to take a WR, and the WR choices at #33 or #44 would be less appealing. As much as I love Downs, he isn't really a ballhawk like Thieneman, Clark, Kilgore, and maybe Haulcy. The problem with Haulcy is he's slower, so I've lost interest in him. The Jets need a leader in the secondary and a dominant player, and that's Downs, but they need a ballhawk equally as much and maybe more imo. If they take a WR at #16, they could probably get Thieneman at #33 or maybe Clark or Kilgore at #44. I doubt that they'd take two Safeties in the first two rounds, as Jets fans would be apoplectic and be seeing visions of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. If they got Downs at #16 and then took Clark or Kilgore at #44, I wouldn't have a problem with it.
What's the point of signing a starting S in FA if they're gonna draft Downs at #16 if he's there? I've come around to the point where they can't take him at #2, they have to take a DE. Since safeties are generally cheaper in FA than other positions, I think I'd rather the Jets sign one of Gilman, Byard, Curl, Blankenship, and Cross, then add either Thieneman, Clark or Kilgore. In that way they'd most likely have two vets starting, but then in passing situations and they brought on an extra S, it would be great to have a young ballhawk back there free to go for the ball.
TIER 1 FA Safeties
In his 6-year career, Gilman (he's 28) has had 5 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles, 27 PDs, and had 90 tackles combined the last two years.
In his 6-year career, Curl (he's 26) has had 5 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, 28 PDs, and had well over 100 tackles 2 of the last 3 years. In addition, he has stayed healthier and been a starter his entire career, whereas Gilman either didn't start until his 4th year or was injured a lot, as his first 3 years he started, 1, 3, and 5 games, then jumped to 14 his 4th year.
Byard is the ballhawk of the group. in his 12-year career (he's 32), he's had 36 interceptions, including 8 his second year and 7 this past year, but there have been years where he didn't have any. He's also had only 4 forced fumbles, 81 PDs (twice in his career he's had 13 or more, so he's not just a ballhawk), and four times in his career he's had over 100 combined tackles, and had 93 this past year. He's the oldest, undoubtedly the most expensive, and will probably re-up with Chicago, but I'd love to add him.
TIER 2 FA Safeties
In his 4-year career, Blankenship (he's 27) has had 9 interceptions, only 1 FF, 23 PDs, and only had 161 combined tackles over the last 2 years, but had 113 in 2023. He's started the last 3 years of his career.
In his 4-year career, Nick Cross (he's 24) has had 5 interceptions (with 3 in 2024), 2 FFs, 12 PDs, but has been a tackling machine each of the last two seasons (his only 2 starting) with 146 in 2024 and 120 this past season.
Curl and Cross are the two youngest and could help the Jets the longest, but that wouldn't happen. They'll be lucky to sign one of Gilman and Curl (I'd prefer Curl because he's two years younger and has started his entire career, but he'll probably be more expensive than Gilman and may not even make it to FA, whereas I think Gilman will Gilman's injury history scares me. Last year was the first year in his career where he started every game. He missed 6 games last season, and 3 in 2024, before that he was a reserve.
If the Jets were to sign Cross, he'd probably have to start over Moore.
If I had my way the Jets would sign Byard and draft Clark or Kilgore and add an additional depth S either in FA or the 4th or 5th round.
Without a question of a doubt, we have learned that David and the Torch and Pitchfork Brigade are not only die hard Jet fans but also highly intelligent NFL fans.
Taking that intelligent fact into consideration, we all know that the Underwear Olympics is the start of the NFL Lying Season which ends with the end of the Mad Hugger’s Show in April.
Have you noticed whenever there is talk of draft busts like Richardson or players that most teams don’t want, Kyler Murray as an example, some knucklehead writer floods the internet with “ the Jets are the perfect spot for them”.
Hopefully Mougey isn’t a garbage collector. Hopefully Glenn’s blind affection for Fields has taught him a lesson.
Ironically David pointing out JaKobi Lane comes at a time when his teammate Makai Lemon supposedly had the worst interview sessions in Combine history. One adjective used to describe them was disastrous.
Of course before the Combine started, Lemon’s name many times was associated with the Jets taking him at 16, figures.
The average speed for the safety/ corner group was the fastest in combine history.
One question for the highly intelligent personnel evaluators who frequent TJW with professional like evaluations.
Before the combine started, the players most likely mentioned as the Jets first pick were Bailey, Reese and Bain.
Can we add Sonny Styles to the conversation. Hard to ignore a 6’4, 244 pound player who can run a 4.46 forty, ironically college teammate Reese ran the same exact 4.46.
Styles brother Lorenzo , a corner/safety ran a 4.27 forty. Pre combine rating day three draft pick at safety. Jets need safeties.
From the Torch and Pitchfork Brigades “ What the hell were you thinking about”, this from Cimini.
8. He said what? Glenn's "superpower" boast created quite the stir. He was mocked on every talk show from local radio to ESPN's "First Take," and he appeared in a green Superman outfit on Wednesday's back page of the New York Post.
In case you missed it, Glenn was asked at the combine to explain why he decided to take over the playcalling on defense even though he hired a new defensive coordinator, Brian Duker.
"To me, playcalling is my superpower," the coach told reporters, trying to squash speculation that owner Woody Johnson twisted his arm into assuming the role.
Glenn was the Lions' playcaller from 2021 to 2024, and here's how they ranked in EPA (Expected Points Added): 31st, 31st, 23rd and eighth. He did a terrific job in that final season, overcoming an inordinate number of injuries.
Constant Kyler Murray comments, are just disturbing. It’s too early to trust Mougey, he is done well so far, but disaster for this team is always looming. This will be a big week, major cuts and major moves throughout the NFL, drama. By the end of March we will have a pretty good idea of how good of a GM we have.
I refuse to comment on Murray, I don’t want to be called a broken record
David, I’m not remotely sold on Simpson. Especially not at 16. For me it’s not about him not being a good prospect so much as the fact we would be investing a premium pick on a player thats just not ready after only 14 career starts. And then there’s the question of who else is there at that spot? Pretty sure whoever that is would be a likely day one starter. And that’s what this team needs,quality starters! As for Anthony Richardson, I could see the Patriots looking at him as a QB3 to develop and trade like they did with a similar player Joe Milton.
No, I’ll take that comment back. Pick up Murray when he is released, keep Fields and Cook.
This is the tank special.
Jets have the number one pick, Take manning and use the other 2-1s as building blocks.
With the schedule the Jets have and Super Power Glenn calling the defense
Voila, that’s how you legally tank.
I'm not a fan of Kyler in general, and based on my understanding of Glenn and Reich I don't think he's what either would look for in a QB. With that said if he is released there's no reason to sign anywhere for more than league minimum since it's just offset from what the Cards owe. In which Jets could do much worse than league minimum for Kyler
Having Murray would be a net negative for the team, it's just that simple. He's a failed phenom who never panned out, and he just doesn't present the picture of a winning QB.
As I said he wouldn’t be my preference and I doubt he’s the FOs preference. But let’s not pretend the other options are good either. There’s no one available that’s obviously better than Murray and he’ll probably be $5m-$10m cheaper. Chances are anyone the Jets have at QB next season will be a negative
Just saw this on X regarding Downs. It's probably one of the faked reports by a team trying to get Downs to drop, but...
REPORT: Caleb Downs was flagged this week with a partially torn meniscus. There is also concern about a possible “degenerative ACL.” (per
@fakecorykinnan
)
It feels similar to the Will Johnson situation last year. We’ll see how it plays out.
***
If he has a degenerative ACL, I wouldn't take Downs.