Mock 2022 Jets Off-Season: Version 1.0

How can you judge a draft class without making a few free agency signings? Let's play GM for a day.

🗽 Good morning Jets fans, I hope you have a big pot of coffee on the go as today I’m playing GM for the day. I’m putting on my Jets polo, puffing out the best, and doing my best Joe Douglas impression.

Let me know how you’d feel in the comments below if the Jets off-season went a little something like this. This isn’t necessarily what I think the Jets will do, rather what i’d attempt to do if I were in the hot seat. If you’re enjoying the content of TJW, don’t forget to smash that subscribe button.

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Jets Free Agents

🏈 First of all, it probably makes sense to look at who’s set to become a free agent after the season ends, that seems like the logical place to start.

Unrestricted free agent: Morgan Moses (OT), Marcus Maye (S), Dan Feeney (OG), Keelan Cole (WR), LaMarcus Joyner (S), Jamison Crowder (WR), Jarrad Davis (LB), Tyler Kroft (TE), Tevin Coleman (RB), Foley Fatukasi (DT), Nathan Shephard (DT), Sharrod Neasman (S), Braxton Berrios (WR), Connor McDermott (OT), Nick Bawden (FB), Eddy Piniero (K).

* UFA’s are players whose contracts have expired and who have completed four or more accrued seasons of service.

Restricted free agents: Kyle Phillips (DE), Mike White (QB)

* RFA’s are players whose contacts have expired and who have three completed accrued seasons of service. RFAs are free to negotiate and sign with any team, but their original team can offer them one of the various qualifying offers ("tenders") that come with the right of first refusal and/or draft-pick compensation.

Exclusive rights free agents: Javelin Guidry (CB), Jeff Smith (WR), Elijah Riley (S), Tim Ward (DE).

* ERFA’s are players who have completed less than 3 years of accrued service. If the team offers him a deal (usually at league minimum) then the player can’t negotiate with any other teams.

Cutting Down

🏈 According to Over The Cap, the Jets currently have $48.2 million in cap space for the 2022 NFL Season. So the first thing I’m going to look at is freeing up some more space by making a few cuts to the roster.

Cuts:

Greg Van Roten - $3.5 million saved ($0 cap hit).

Ryan Griffin - $3.08 million saved ($199k cap hit).

Shaq Lawson - $9 million saved ($0 cap hit)

Blake Cashman - $965k saved ($76k cap hit)

LaMichael Perine - $708k saved ($372 cap hit)

Isaiah Williams - $895k saved ($0 cap hit)

Parker Ferguson - $812k saved ($12k cap hit)

Zane Lewis - $705k saved ($0 cap hit)

Restructure

🏈 There are two contracts that the Jets could save considerable space on if they chose to cut them. George Fant could be cut to open up $9.65 million and Connor McGovern could be cut to open up $9 million. I’ve seen most people cut at least one of these guys, but both have played to a good standard this year and I’m not sure creating more holes on the offensive line is the way to go.

As it stands right now, George Fant is set to be the 9th highest-paid right tackle in football next season (if he is indeed the RT). Connor McGovern is set to be the 4th highest-paid center in football next year and that’s just a little too rich for my liking. I’d leave Fant’s where it is but I think you could work on McGovern.

At the start of the 2022 season, Fant will be entering his age 30 season and Connor McGovern will be entering age 29 season. By lineman’s standards, that’s not very old and it could be argued that they are entering the prime of their careers. Fant is one of the highest-rated tackles in football this year and McGovern is playing like a top 10 center.

It’s important to pay for future production instead of past production, but that’s much easier said than done. However, with the issues we’ve had all over the field, I don’t want to create holes that don’t need to be created.

McGovern should be paid like a top 10-15 center in football, which means an annual salary of between $6 million and $8 million.

Connor McGovern’s restructured contract.

So with the cuts that have been made and the restructuring of the contract, that leaves the Jets cap situation at the following: $71.2 million available for 2022, which is more than enough to work with.

Signing your Own

🏈 Before you move to the free agents on the open market, you first need to decide who you’re going to try and bring back from your own pool.

The exclusive rights tender is very reasonable, so for me, I’m bringing back Elijah Riley ($825k) and Javelin Guidry ($895) at that amount without any hesitation. I’d bring Mike White back on a right of first refusal tender. Personally, I’d let Jeff Smith and Tim Ward try and find a deal elsewhere.

I would sign the following deals:

Keelan Cole - 1 year at $3.5 million.

Braxton Berrios - 2 years at $3 million total.

Tevin Coleman - 1 year at $1.2 million.

LaMarcus Joyner - 1 year at $1.5 million.

Mike White - 1 year at $2.2 million

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif - 1 year at $5 million

I went back and forward on whether to sign Foley Fatukasi, but it would completely depend on what he was looking for. Some run-stuffing defensive tackles have been signing deals with an average value of over $8.5 million a year, all the way up into the $12-$13 million range and I just don’t think Foley’s play warrants that kind of deal. If we could get him for around the Sheldon Rankins mark of $6 million then I’d be interested, but the Jets signed Jonathan Marshall for a reason and I’d say that run-stuffing defensive tackles tend to be relatively straightforward to find.

The Jets drafted Jonathan Marshall, and while we haven’t seen enough to make a judgment one way or the other, I believe the Jets are high on Marshall’s potential.

Jets cap after the above signings: $62 million available

Free Agent Class

🏈 It’s easy to sit here right now and look at what free agents you’d target. The chances are if you’re a very good free agent, you may never make it to the open market. It’s in your current teams’ interests to sign you before that ever happens.

J.C Jackson (CB) - 5 years, $100 million ($40 million guaranteed)

This is a lot of money, but then guys like J.C Jackson are going to cost you a lot of money. This is a very similar deal to the one that Jalen Ramsey signed and when you’re not a very good team you have to pay that kind of money to get a guy like Jackson. 7 interceptions and 20 passes defended are the numbers for Jackson this year, that’s after a 9 interception season last year and a 5 interception season the year before.

I know people will say that this system doesn’t need star-caliber corners but I would say any system could do with a Jackson. His signing would give the Jets two cornerbacks to build around for the future and it gives you a ball hawk that’s severely lacked. Jackson’s interceptions shift both momentum and field position and that’s something the Jets desperately need.

I’d be putting on the full-court press for Jackson.

Connor Williams (OG) - 4 years, $44 million ($20 million guaranteed)

Williams is a name I’ve mentioned a few times this year and he’s a player I really like. Dallas are renowned for having one of the best lines in football and Williams has been a big part of that this year. He’s been in the league for 4 years now and he’s getting better every single year, and while he hasn’t played on the right side of the line since his rookie campaign, I think he could easily shift over and make that position his own.

He’s been a top 20 guard in the league, but I think he can do so much more. He’s still not even 25 years old so his best years are almost certainly in front of him. I think he would largely complete that offensive line and if Becton can turn to health a line of Becton, AVT, CMG, Williams, and Fant will be a good line for the next 2-3 years which is what you need for Zach Wilson to flourish.

Younghoe Koo (K) - 4 years, $18 million ($8 million guaranteed)

If you’re a top-10 kicker in the NFL you tend to get around the $4 million mark. I think you’d maybe have to add some bonus’s in here to incentivize, but only Justin Tucker’s contract is valued at $5/year over the length of the contract. Koo has been incredibly consistent for some time, and it’s about time the Jets signed a good kicker so we didn’t need to worry about the position.

Koo is a career 89.4% kicker and is at 91.3% this season. He’s got a strong leg which is evidenced by his 11 made field goals on 12 attempts over 50 yards. He’s also hit 100% of his extra points this year. We keep trying to find these diamond’s in the draft and it usually ends up with us missing out on points, just sign a good one and move on. $4.5 million a year for someone who is usually automatic isn’t a lot of money when all things are considered. That would put him just inside the top 10 of kicker salaries.

D.J Jones - 1 year, $3 million

What would an off-season mock be without predicting at least one former San Fransisco player to the Jets. Jones was a 6th round pick of the 49’ers who signed a one year deal last year. He doesn’t give you a ton in terms of pass-rush potential, but he is a good run defender and a good piece to have on a defensive line rotation.

Dalton Schultz - 4 years, $32 million ($20 million guaranteed)

Schultz has had a relatively good year for the Cowboys, he started hot, went through a cold patch and then came on against yesterday. The problem in Dallas is there are a lot of mouths to feed when you consider Lamb, Cooper, and Gallup. Signing Dalton to a contract that is around $8 million per year would put him comfortably in the top 10 but considerably lower than the likes of George Kittle.

A tight end is a young QB’s best friend and not only is Schultz a good receiver, he’s also a very good pass blocker as well. It would be a wise investment to give Zach a player like Schultz. It would help the team as a whole, but it would do the world of good to Zach Wilson.

That’s an aggressive free agency approach, but I think that’s what Joe Douglas has to do. With all of those signings, it leaves us with well over $10 million in cap space which would be needed for draft picks etc. Contracts are never as straightforward to produce as I’m suggesting here and there are creative ways of making room, just look at what Tampa Bay do.

NFL Draft

🏈 Heading into the NFL draft, the Jets depth chart would look something like this. Better than what we’ve been dealing with, but with some clear and obvious holes in there. I think you look at this team and you say it could win you around 7 games in total, at least that’s what I look at it and think (obviously depending on the jump from Zach).

Draft selections:

For the sake of this mock draft I’m going to use the Draft Network simulator. These are designed to have a few things not go as planned, but I’m going to take what I’m given and only run through once. So if the player I really want happens to go 20 places higher than expected, then I’m just going to pivot a little bit.

Trade: Jets trade the #4 pick to the Panthers for the #7 pick, #103 pick and a 2nd round pick in 2022.

Round 1: Pick #7- George Karlaftis, Edge - Purdue

Karlaftis has been consistently good for a long time now, he has more power than anyone in the draft and that includes Hutchinson IMO. Combine that with the motor and use of hands and he’s a very dangerous player. He’s got a variety of moves and his swim move is hard to defend against, he’s absolutely relentless and his punch will rock many NFL tackles.

Stat: As a freshman at Purdue, Karlaftis ranked in the top 10 in pressures. No other freshman ranked in the top 100.

First-round trade: Jets send pick #8 to New Orleans for picks #11, #98, and #99

Round 1: Pick #11 - Jameson Williams, WR - Alabama

Williams adds that pure speed that the Jets just haven’t had for a while. He has a quickness and fluidity which gets him plenty of separation, it’s the kind of skill-set that translates well to the NFL. You get Zach Wilson a really dangerous weapon to pair with Moore, Davis and Schultz.

Stat: QB’s have a passer rating of 152.1 when targeting Williams in the end-zone. The best mark in college football.

Round 2: Pick #36 - Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia

You can talk about the offensive line or the secondary, but for me the linebacking unit has been the weakest unit on the 2021 Jets. Nakobe Dean is a special talent, he’s quick and instinctive, can blitz between the tackles or cover in space. He can do a little bit of everything and he’s a plug and play guy that can come in and play straight away.

Stat: Dean has a 89.4 PFF man-coverage grade this season, best for a LB

Round 2: Pick #40 - Daniel Faalele - OT, Minnesota

We didn’t cut Fant in this scenario, but we also didn’t extend him. So it makes sense to start planning for his succession. I think had Faalele not opted out of the 2020 season he’d be a first-round pick. He’s big and agile and perfectly suited to a timing offense like the Jets. He’s good to have in case of injuries, but also slot him in as Fant’s eventual replacement.

Stat: Earlier this year Faalele allowed just a single pressure and 0 sacks against Ohio State

Round 3: Pick #68 - Isaiah Likely - TE, Coastal Carolina

Signing Schultz doesn’t mean you don’t take advantage of this tight end class. Likely is a mismatch for anyone who tries to cover him and his fluidity and catch radius will cause problems in the NFL. You won’t find him blocking in-line like Schultz but put him in the slot and he’s going to be a nightmare. He has reliable hands which is always handy for a young QB.

Stat: Likely had just 1 drop on 77 targets in 2021

Third-round trade. Jets send picks #98 and #145 to Wahington for pick #83.

Round 3: Pick #83 - Chad Muma - LB, Wyoming

Muma is one of my absolute favorite players in the NFL draft, he’s a tackling machine. He’s a 6’3 240lb linebacker that moves with agility and real lateral mobility. He’s a sideline to sideline type guy and a 3-down linebacker, because he's played at Wyoming he’s not getting the attention he deserves, but this is a steal right here.

Stat: Chad Muma’s 90.1 PFF grade is the highest grade to given to a group 5 LB this season

Round 3: Pick #99 - Josh Jobe - CB, Alabama

Jobe is a developmental guy but he has all the tools there to become a starting outside corner in the league. He has a real physicality that you don’t always see from corners today, and while that can sometimes get him into trouble in terms of penalties it also allows him to make some shut down some guys that he just overpowers.

Stat: In 2020, Jobe didn’t allow a single completion over 20 yards on 551 coverage snaps

Round 4: Pick #103 - Vernon McKinley - S, Oregon

The Jets need a safety and Vernon McKinley is that ball-hawking center fielder that the Jets have been without for a long time. When I wrote my safety piece on Hamilton I quoted the Eagles director of pro personnel and he spoke about safeties who have corner backgrounds being ideal. McKinley was recruited as a corner but made his name as a safety.

Stat: McKinley had 6 interceptions this season, that’s more than any other safety in the FBS.

Round 4: Pick #110 - Isaiah Thomas - Edge, Oklahoma

He’s been moved around at Oklahoma, inside and out, but he definitely suits a 4-3 edge rushers role more. He’s a quick-twitch athlete who plays at 100% every snap, he’s shown a good bend to his game and his effort alone will get him a couple of sacks a season. I think had he played as an every-down 5-technique in college we’d be talking about him a lot higher than the 4th round.

Stats: Thomas had 34 pressures including 8 sacks in 2021

Round 4: Pick #111 - Reed Blankenship - S, Middle Tennessee

If you’ve been following this newsletter for a while, you’ll probably know I’m keen on Reed becoming a Jet. He plays with outstanding instinct and shows good range, when he’s down in the box he’s one of the better tacklers around. He has had issues with mised tackles when coming from deep, but that can be coached. He’s a good value pick at this stage in the draft.

Stat: According to PFF, Blankenship had 36 stops in 2021, which constitutes a failure for the offense. That’s the 4th most of any safety in the country.

Round 5: Pick #157 - Cole Strange - OG, Chattanooga

With the final pick in the draft, I’m going back to the offensive line. I was put onto Strange by a guy who knows a thing or two about offensive line play and as soon as I started watching I just loved his tape. Strange dominates at the level he plays and his movement skills are designed for this system. He shows a good technique, good hands and a nasty side to finish blocks. If there is one developmental prospect I want this year on the offensive line, it’s Cole Strange.

Stats: Strange has allowed 0 sacks and 8 pressures over the last two years.

Final Depth Chart

Hopefully, you’re still with me after all of that. Now there would obviously be some UDFA signings to fill this depth chart out but it’s hard to predict those at this point. I was going to put Western Kentucky’s Jerreth Sterns in as a UDFA but thought I’d stay clear of that.

The Jets will obviously carry more than 2 QB’s but after last year I’m not sure we see a highly regarded veteran come in. They love Mike White and it wouldn’t shock me if they had Josh Johnson back on the practice squad as cover, or at least someone like that, which is why I’ve only run it 2 deep here.

I still don’t think this is a contending roster, but I do think it has the potential to be a playoff roster. Isaiah Thomas is in both DT and DE due to his versatility.

Personally, if we went into the season with that roster, I’d be pretty confident of a winning record depending on how Zach develops. You’ve added in 5 impact players, 1 on the defensive line (Lawson), two at linebacker (Dean & Muma) and two in the secondary (McKinley III & Jackson). You’ve added protection for Zach in Williams and looked to the future with the drafting of Strange and Faalele and you’ve given Zach new weapons in Schultz, Likely, and Williams.

The only bit that just didn’t work out with this mock off-season was improving the running back position. But I can work with Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman for another year.