Key Matchups: Jets vs 49ers

Edition #692

Good morning! ☕

We have plenty of news to get to today as the Jets get to work on some contracts, including the huge news overnight that MC2 is here to stay.

Last year Brock Purdy led all QBs who qualified in passer rating, yards per attempt, Passing EPA and Passing Success Rate. Kyle Shanahan is known to run a very QB friendly system, with designed reads, plenty of motion that confuses the defence but does little to the offence in terms of complexity, combined with his zone scheme and you have a system that is going to put the QB in the best position possible.

But, the QB still has to make the right read and deliver the ball on time. The YAC philosophy only works consistently if the ball is delivered to the right person at the right time. San Francisco was the only team to have two players inside the top five last year in relation to yards after the catch per reception, Deebo Samuel was #1 with 8.7 and George Kittle was T#4 with 7.3

Some people use those kinds of stats to take away from Purdy, but for me it just accentuates how good he is. Brock Purdy has shown a mastery of the principles and decision making and the Jets are going to have to be at their absolute best to stifle him come Monday.

🟢 Michael Carter II and the Jets have come to an agreement on a new 3-year $30.75 million contract extension. As one of my favourite Jets and one of the most productive Jets, I couldn’t be happier that we are paying one of our own and he’s also the first JD draft pick to get a multi-year extension. That contract will now make him the highest paid slot corner in football based on average salary per year. This is well deserved and a great sign for the defence in 2025 and beyond. We talk more about Carter in our matchup previews.

⚪ According to Field Yates, the Jets restructured the contracts of both Tyler Conklin and Quincy Williams last night, and that created $8 million in immediate cap space. That news came out after Haason Reddick was spotted in Jersey City giving out book bags and school supplies. He was also wearing a green hat and was seen signing Jets football helmets. So is that deal getting closer? Are they at least talking? Is this a subtle move by JD to show the Reddick camp there is money available to talk if they show up. Who knows, but I feel something is happening.

🟢For the first time in a long time the Jets have a projected win total in double digits. 10.1 to be exact. Well at least according to NFL.com. If everything goes right that win projection pushes to 13.5 (ceiling), but it can be as low as 8.6 (floor). That 10.1 number is the highest in the AFC East, just coming in ahead of the Bills. “Next Gen Stats show that Aaron Rodgers generated +353.2 passing EPA between 2018 and 2022, second in that span to only Patrick Mahomes, who accounted for +815.4. The Jets, Bills and Dolphins are neck and neck in my model, but Gang Green's narrowly on top in the AFC East. New York sprang up in recent days due to its increased odds of winning in Week 1 at San Francisco, thanks to the uncertainty around whether 49ers LT Trent Williams will continue his holdout into the regular season.”

⚪ PFF had a great article on some of the best UDFA’s who made it onto an NFL 53-man roster this season and Braiden McGregor made it only that list. Only two rookies had more pressures than him in the pre-season - “The Michigan alumnus flashed his ability as a situational pass-rusher during the preseason. McGregor somewhat struggled in run defense but more than made up for it by bearing down on opposing quarterbacks. He picked up a pressure in each of the three games that he played in and logged a total of eight pressures — including three sacks — on 53 pass-rushing snaps. McGregor's 20.8% preseason pass-rush win rate would have ranked eighth among NFL edge defenders last season. And to top it off, his 82.5 PFF pass-rushing grade during the preseason ranked sixth among 118 qualifying edge defenders.”

🟢 Leonard Floyd’s scouting report on Aaron Rodgers is pretty funny. Speaking to the San Francisco media he said - “I've done played a lot of football. In Chicago, sometimes we'd have Aaron as a first game. Shoot, man, my scouting report is he's a legendary quarterback and you have to come with your 'A' game, because he's the type where he'll embarrass you. If you give him some momentum, he's going to carry that momentum for the whole game. You just have to be on your Ps and Qs, because he'll score every time if you let him.”

⚪ Floyd also shared that he received death threats through social media last week following the sack on Aaron Rodgers that resulted in the veteran QB missing all of the 2023 season. Unfortunately this is the modern-day reality of sports and social media, nobody should have to read these kinds of things about himself or his family following a sports game where he just did his job. Floyd stated the obvious, he wasn’t trying to hurt Aaron it was just an awful by-product of a very physical game.

🟢 Just to confirm a couple of numbers on the Reddick situation. He’s now been fined over $2 million for missing camp days, $100k for missing minicamp and he forfeited his $250k bonus by not showing up. So right now he’s around $2.35k in the hole and if he missing the game on Monday that will jump to over $3 million. For every game that he misses in the 2024 season, he’ll be fined $791,666…that’s a lot of money to be fined to be back in the same situation next off-season, while being a year older.

⚪ Breece Hall sounds hungry this year: "To me, I haven't really done anything in this league yet. The hype & all that stuff's there, but for me, it's just having the standard for myself every time I step out on the field, I want to be the best player out there. I want every team to know who No. 20 is"

🟢 The Jets announced their team captains for the new season. So real surprises, C.J. Mosley, Quinnen Williams, Aaron Rodgers and Thomas Morestead.

Matchups, matchups, matchups. This game is absolutely stacked full of them.

We’ve already talked about Kittle, but let’s go through a couple more today.

Tyron Smith/Morgan Moses vs Nick Bosa, Leonard Floyd

This could be the most important matchup in the game. The Jets trotted out a conveyor belt of mediocre talent at tackle last season, and that included the presumed starters Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton. When you pair poor tackles with indecisive QBs then bad things happen.

This year the Jets have two new starters in the form of Smith and Moses, both veterans, both extremely talented and both no strangers to MNF. Keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy is priority number one, which means these two guys are two of the most important players on the field this season.

Nick Bosa is coming off a 10.5 sack season, as is Leonard Floyd who swapped Orchard Park for the Bay this summer. Floyd is off course responsible for the sack that injured Aaron Rodgers last season and you’re going to hear about that once a minute, every minute on Monday’s broadcast so be prepared.

So while the Jets will have their hands full, Bosa and Floyd will be made to work. Tyron Smith is one of the best left tackles in football and allowed just a single sack over 500+ pass blocking snaps last season. No tackle who appeared in 500+ pass blocking snaps allowed less sacks/pressures combined last year. On the other side, Moses allowed just 24 pressures all season.

This is a matchup for the ages.