Jets need a safety net
There's a good chance the Jets don't have their starting safeties on their roster.
🗽 Good morning Jets fans and welcome to Wednesday’s TJW. I’m busy packing my things ahead of a house move on Friday, unless I can secure an internet connection next week the TJW newsletter may be heading for a short break…but don’t fear, we’ll be back before free agency kicks off.
Talking about free agency, today I’m going to switch the focus to the safety position. If you follow me on Twitter you’ll know that I’m not a huge fan of Ashtyn Davis’s play and both LaMarcus Joyner and Marcus Maye are about to hit free agency…which means the Jets need help and significant help at the position.
To start off I put together a comparison table of 2021 stats for the top safeties available through free agency this off-season, and that looks a little something like this.
The two safeties who have been spoken about more than any others are Marcus Williams and Jessie Bates. Chances are Jessie Bates doesn’t make it to free agency, which leaves Marcus Williams, a player who’s expected to get north of $15 million a year. That’s the price for the best coverage safety in a passing league, but he is mainly just a coverage safety. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love a player who can cover on the back end, a player who can run with tight ends and handle receivers at the catch point. But do I think based on what we know about Joe Douglas that he’s going to spend over $15 mill a year on a safety? No, I don’t see it. It could happen, but I don’t see it.
Jayron Kearse is the obvious option here, and I wrote in some detail why I’d like to see the Jets target him over on Jet X. But his stats speak volumes, he is someone that can cover and play the run, he can rush the passer and he doesn’t miss tackles. His 3.9% missed tackle rate for a player who had over 100 tackles is insane, it’s actually mind-boggling. PFF project him at $5 million a year over 3 years, but I think he’s worth more. I’d be happy going to $8 million a year over 3 years to try and pry him away from Dallas. He’s comfortable in that Dan Quinn defense, a defense that has roots in the same defense the Jets run (both Quinn and Saleh worked under Pete Carroll in Seattle).
Jordan Whitehead is another name that sticks out here. The former 4th round pick but together his best season in 2021, making plays at or behind the line. He’s also a chess piece that can be moved around the formation. He spent a lot of time in the box (290 snaps), as a free safety (229 snaps) and in the slot (169), and that kind of positional flexibility will be attractive to the Jets, it also enables them to hide their coverages if they have a player who can perform all over the field.
Quandre Diggs is the third player here who is an interesting option for the Jets. He comes from a similar system in Seattle, not identical because Saleh has evolved his scheme over the years, but similar enough that he’d have some immediate comfort. He also gives the Jets something they didn’t get from the position in 2021, and that’s the ability to make a play on the ball. His 5 interceptions lead all safeties set to be available in free agency and that’s a huge + in his favor. One thing to watch with Diggs is related to his recovery from a bad injury sustained in week 18 against the Cardinals where he suffered a dislocated ankle and a broken right fibula.
Diggs is predominantly a middle field free safety, so there’s a world where Diggs and Kerse could both be signed, allowing the Jets to focus on other areas in the draft.
Next, let’s take a quick look at some of the top talent available in the draft:
The playmaking skills of Hamilton are on full show here considering he played less than 500 snaps, but I think Jalen Pitre sticks out the most here. Having those INT/PD numbers while also making plays behind the line of scrimmage is noteworthy, it’s also worth mentioning that Pitre won player of the week honors at the Senior Bowl, where he was coached by the Jets.
Brisker is one of the best coverage safeties in college football, so he’s appealing for a team that have been unable to cover from the safety position. Reed Blankenship is a favourite of mine, but he’s significantly better in the box than playing deep, but his read and react skills make him an interesting depth option in the 4th or 5th round.
I've been watching a lot of Iowa’s Dane Belton recently and he's a sleeper selection that isn't getting a lot of national media attention. Iowa moved him all over the field and he even saw time as a linebacker, his versatility could make him attractive to a Jets team looking for chess pieces. He can play as a single high or down in the box and his ball production took a huge leap forward in 2021. Iowa ran a lot of quarters defense in 2021 and under Saleh the 49ers ran that at 18.1% in 2020, the 5th highest mark in the league. There's a fit there, so don't be surprised if you hear Dane Belton's name called.
If the Jets don’t take Hamilton in the top 10, I think we’ll see them target a safety at either pick #35 or pick #38, and Brisker, Pitre, and Cine are the three guys I’d watch out for there.
Mel Kiper’s Mock Draft
Trust Mel Kiper Jr to get Jets Twitter buzzing with positional value chats. I wrote about this mock draft over on Gang Green Nation.
The ESPN analyst has the Jets taking Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton at #4 and Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum at #10. Arguably two of the best players in the draft. Sounds good right?
Not so fast. A lot of people will immediately point to positional value. How many safeties taken in the top 10 were inside PFF’s top 50 rated safeties in the league in 2021? The answer is 0. In fact, only 6 were taken in the first round at all, with the highest-drafted one being Malcolm Jenkins who was taken 14th overall. It seems the league doesn’t value safety play that much so should the Jets?
Linderbaum is one of my favorite prospects in the draft, a fine player who’s likely going to have a very long and successful career…but if he were to be taken 10th overall he’d become the highest center ever drafted. Again, the league doesn’t value center play that highly, so should the Jets?
I like Hamilton and Linderbaum and if we end up with them, I won’t be flipping tables (dependent on free agency). But what I don’t like about this draft is that he has the Jets passing on Kayvon Thibodeaux who lands with the Giants at #5…that would be a disaster in my humble opinion.
Saleh & Co staying in Jersey
The news came out yesterday that Robert Saleh and the majority of his coaching staff wouldn’t be making the short trip to Indianapolis for the scouting combine this week.
I don’t mind this at all. Saleh will still take part in the interviews which is arguably the most important aspect of the scouting combine and Joe Douglas and the scouting department will be on hand to watch the drills.
Saleh and co will instead stay in New Jersey and work on free agency. The Jets coaching staff had a great opportunity for face-to-face evaluation at the senior bowl, and more than a few players will test at their pro day instead of in Indy.
The Jets won’t be the only team not sending their coaching staff, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have both decided to stay home instead of making the trip.
QB Draft Market heating up
One of my preferred options for the draft revolves around the Jets trading down. I see this draft as being packed from picks 15-50, so the more picks in that range the better. The problem with trading down is you need a team willing to trade up, and teams are more willing to trade up if there is a QB they’re interested in.
The Giants may have just done the Jets a little bit of a favor, or more specifically Brian Daboll may have done the Jets a little favor:
There will be a lot of talk at the combine between coaches, GM's, and the media, so take it all with a pinch of salt. But the Giants hinting they could be in the market for a QB in the draft signals to other teams that if they want QB1, they may have to jump the Giants. If they want to jump the Giants at #5, trading with the Jets at #4 makes a lot of sense.
Carolina who is sitting at #6 could almost certainly do with a QB. Atlanta at #8 may be looking for Matt Ryan’s replacement. Bronco’s GM said yesterday that he knows they need better play from the QB position, and they’re sitting at #9. Washington needs a QB and they’re sitting at #11 and the Steelers definitely need a QB, they’d have to jump the furthest from #20.
The QB draft market tends to start heating up at the combine, and we’re already seeing signs of that.
Fant & Jets working on new deal
The scouting combine is often used as a meeting place to talk trades, whether that's players or draft picks, but it's also used to handle some internal business.
According to NFL Insider Tony Pauline, the Jets will be meeting with 2021 starting LT George Fant this week to try and work on an extension. Fant filled in for injured Mekhi Becton in 2021 and out together his best season of pro football. With so much uncertainty at the position it makes sense for the Jets to be looking to lock up Fant for a few more years, his contract is set to expire after the 2022 season.
It's believed by Pauline that the Jets will be looking at 3 years and $37.5 million as the range for a new deal, but Fant may be looking for more, and if the Jets aren't willing to increase their offer it could lead to Fant playing out the final year of his deal.
That can go one of two ways for the Jets. He plays well again, he records back-to-back top 10 left tackle seasons and then his price shoots up to $17+ million per year and the Jets need to decide if they're willing to pay. Or he loses the battle to Becton, moves back to RT, and reverts back to an average swing tackle, and thus his worth comes down. This is an interesting one to watch this week in Indy.
Good luck with the move!
Congrats on the new crib and good luck getting WI-FI quickly.