Is Stingley A Top 10 Pick?

Is the LSU man worth the gamble?

Good morning Jets fans. It felt a little strange to not publish a newsletter yesterday, but I’m going to make sure there is at least 3 a week going forward, keeping that Jets content floating into your inbox.

Over the last 24-48 hours there has been a lot of talk about the Jets cornerback position, and while I think the ceiling being firmly planted on the head of Echols is unfair, I’ve never said that I wouldn’t look to upgrade that position come the off-season. In fact, in my only full mock off-season to date, I chucked a fair amount of imaginary cash at the issue with the signing of Patriot JC Jackson, a former UDFA.

Now, there’s a very good chance that Jackson never makes it to free agency, and even if he does I’m not sure the Jets are going to be willing to give him the kind of money he’ll be commanding. There seems to be a fair belief within one Jets drive that the system Saleh operates doesn’t require big $$$ being thrown at the CB position to make it successful, and despite them paying Richard Sherman, San Francisco put a lot of belief, faith, and development in guys like K'Waun Williams who was a UDFA out of Pittsburgh and third-round pick Ahkello Witherspoon out of Colorado while Saleh was on the staff.

All of this got me thinking about Derek Stingley JR, the perceived #1 corner in the 2022 NFL Draft. Most mocks have him heading to the Jets at #4 overall, but would the Jets really spend a top-five pick on a player like Derek? Would they spend a top-five pick on any cornerback?

If you look back at the Philadelphia Eagles strategy while Joe Douglas was VP of Player Personnel between 2016-2020, they may have taken corners but they never took a corner in the first round of the draft. The Bears didn’t take a corner in 2015 when JD served as their Director of College Scouting and Baltimore only took a corner in the first round once between 2000 and 2014 when Joe Douglas was a scout for the franchise. Of course this isn’t concrete evidence because Joe Douglas has only been calling the shots since being hired by the Jets, but they say you learn from previous experience.

This brings us nicely onto Derek Stingley Jr, an extremely talented corner from LSU with a major red flag.

Stingley burst onto the scene as a freshman and proceeded to put up some of the best tape you’ll see from a college corner. He finished his first year with 6 interceptions and 15 pass defenses. Since that 2019 season, we’ve only seen Stingley in a combined 10 games due to multiple injuries. He appeared in 7 last season and just 3 this season, over the course of those 10 games he had 0 interceptions, 5 pass defenses, and 2 touchdowns allowed.

Before we get into the injury issue that will need addressing. Let’s just focus on the positives of Stingley’s tape. 2019 was one of those years which made you stop in your tracks and just admire the talent. As a 5* true freshman and the #1 rated prospect in the class, Stingley didn’t disappoint straight out of the gate. He showed the speed and fluidity to stick to any receiver in and out of breaks and the instincts and anticipation to get his head around and play the ball. He also flashed his physicality and while he doesn’t have the length of Sauce Gardner, his instincts allow him to get into passing lanes and disrupt the pass.

He was targeted a whopping 94 times as a freshman, it took teams an entire season to understand you don’t throw to his side of the field. At the end of the year he’d allowed just 36 receptions, good for a 38.3% completion rate, which is just downright scary. That did climb to 46.7 in 2020 and was at 60% through the first three games of 2021, but he was never likely to repeat that 2019 season, and although he did give up 5 touchdowns as a freshman, he more than made up for it with those 6 interceptions and 15 pass defenses.

When you watch that 2019 tape you just come away thinking he’s the next lockdown NFL corner. Then you switch on 2020 and 2021, and while LSU was going through changes and significant disruption, there was something missing from Stingley’s game. That fire and desire he played with in 2019 wasn’t necessarily missing, but it wasn’t as consistent, it was almost as if he believed he’d already done enough and having won a title and been heralded as the next Darrelle Revis, maybe he had.

But, you can’t talk about Stingley and not mention the injury history. He missed time towards the back of 2020 with a leg injury and then missed most of 2021 fall camp with a foot injury that he reaggravated in the 3rd game of the season before shutting down for surgery and rehabilitation. As far as I’m aware, there are no concerns that he can make a full recovery, but considering the time he has missed and how key a foot injury can be, can the Jets really afford to take the risk?

The reward is quite obvious, but the risk is plain to see. In my opinion, I don’t think the Jets will take a first-round corner and I’d be very surprised if they took Stingley who is about as risky as any prospect in this draft. If they were going to gamble on a first-round corner I think it should be Sauce Gardner, a man who finished his college career having allowed 0 touchdowns. If they choose to attack the position in the 2nd round, they won’t struggle for options.

If someone like Roger McCreary falls to the top of the 2nd, or Trent McDuffie or Kyler Gordon…then the Jets should absolutely try and improve that situation. But considering that Joe Douglas stressed yet again his philosophy around building through the trenches at his post-season press conference, I think we’re more likely to see a Karlaftis or Ekwonu with that #4 pick over a CB who has unquestionable talent, but comes with big question marks.

Maybe another team can afford to take a risk on Stingley…I'm not sure the Jets can.