Happy New York Jets Free Agency 2024

Edition #589

Good morning! ☕

The shape of the Jets 2024 season will come into focus over the next few days. Although the new league year begins on March 13 at 4 p.m. ET, and that’s the point free agents can actually sign their deals, the legal tampering period opens today at noon ET. I’m going to be creating a note on the app (click below) where we can keep track of all the rumours throughout the day. I’m going to be firing off a lot of emails to try and get some information, but when it happens we’ll be here to talk about it.

👋 Jerry Jeudy is off to Cleveland. The Broncos are trading the wide receiver to the Browns for No. 135 (fifth-round) and No. 202 (sixth-round) picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. According to Jeremy Fowler, the Jets also had an interest in acquiring him. That move saves Denver $12.987 million in 2024 salary cap space. Jeudy has just over 3000 yards and 11 TDs in 4 years with Denver. A lot of fans were unhappy the Jets didn’t come away with him, I’m more unhappy that it’s now likely the Broncos will work to keep Courtland Sutton.

🗳️ Here’s how the Jets draft picks are looking:

Round 1 (10,) Round 3 (72), Round 4 (110), Round 4 (112), Round 6 (184,) Round 6 (218), Round 7 (256), Round 7 (257)

That’s a lot to work with. Not having a second right now is frustrating but if you add those picks above and then add Aaron Rodgers, it doesn’t look so bad.

✍️ Adam Schefter revealed that the Jets had agreed to a new one-year deal with safety Chuck Clark who missed the entire 2023 season through injury. The Jets are pretty short at safety so I'd expect more action at that position.

✍️ The Jets also signed slot cornerback Isaiah Oliver after he was cut by the San Francisco 49ers last week. I actually really like this signing for depth purposes. He had 1 interception and 1 PBU while allowing 3 touchdowns last season. He appeared in over 500 defensive snaps last year and was a 2nd round pick of the Falcons back in 2018. 2023 was his first year in San Fran so no connection with Saleh, but he did a crossover with Jeff Ulbrich in Atlanta, so there is a familiarity there.

✍️ It's also been reported that Kenny Yeboah is returning to the Jets on a one-year deal.

🧨A lot has already happened in the NFL world, so we’re going quickfire. Ready, set, go…

⬛ Mac Jones got traded to the Jaguars for a 6th-round pick. Apparently, there were four teams in for him, I wonder if the other three are interested in Zach Wilson?

⬛ Defensive tackle Chris Jones signed a huge deal to stay in Kansas City.

⬛ Fletcher Cox announced his retirement.

⬛ The Eagles are going to throw a load of money at Bryce Huff as soon as FA opens…apparently.

⬛ The Panthers are planning to release Bradley Bozeman so that center market just got another addition.

⬛ Kevin Byard is signing a 2 year $15 million deal with the Chicago Bears.

⬛ Baker Mayfield is staying in Tampa on a 3-year $100 million deal. Wowzers.

⬛ Packers will release veteran linebacker De'Vondre Campbell in a salary-cap saving move

⬛ Foley Fatukasi is signing a deal with Houston after getting cut by Jacksonville.

⬛ It's been reported that Russell Wilson is planning to sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

⬛ Kendrick Bourne is re-signing with the Patriots.

⬛ Arik Armstead and the 49ers were unable to agree to a contract restructure and he will likely be released. Would love him next to Q but we don't have the money to do that and fill the more pressing needs.

What are my free agency predictions heading into today? I was asked that this weekend, and I thought it was the perfect topic for today’s newsletter.

It’s hard to project where free agents are going to land. The Jets have some very obvious needs, and there are some very obvious solutions. But even if you have the money and are willing, both sides need to make it happen.

The Jets have Aaron Rodgers and a stellar defence, that’s a good pull for free agents. But they also have the longest playoff drought in North American sports. The Jets need to sell these players on a dream, money won’t be enough.

We’re about to find out how many people around the league believe in this project. Aaron Rodgers can say we have the pieces, Joe Douglas can say we have the culture, but we’re about to find out if that view is shared by people outside the building.

Here are my five predictions for how free agency is going to go.

Bryce Huff signs with someone else

I feel as though the Jets messed this up. They could and should have extended Huff last off-season where his value was increasing but not as high as it is today. If they’d have signed him long-term at that point, they likely wouldn’t have felt the need to take Will McDonald with the first-round pick, opening that space up for a wide receiver which would then mean we had one less hole to fill this off-season. They didn’t, and now I feel they’re just praying that Will McDonald can replicate the performance of Huff.

Huff had 10 sacks and 67 pressures in a limited role last year, and edge rushers who can get to the QB are a prized commodity in the NFL. Huff will get paid and he deserves every single penny. Here’s a guy who performed above and beyond his rookie deal that was minimal based on him being a UDFA, not once did he complain…even after his stellar season last year. There are plenty of teams looking for pass-rush assistance and my hope is he lands outside the AFC.

I could see him ending up in Atlanta, I could see him in Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville and I could even see him in Miami or Buffalo. Buffalo is having some cap issues, but I’ve always said the cap can be as flexible as you want it to be.

Jets will sign Mike Onwenu

We all know that we need considerable help on the offensive line. I think we’ll see 2-3 signings there, with two depth options and Mike Onwenu as the main focus player.

I do think we’ll look at Tyron Smith, but I can see him electing to sign elsewhere which leaves the Jets chasing Onwenu.

Onwenu has had a fine career so far through four years in New England and his versatility could appeal to Joe Douglas who has insisted that AVT is going to stick in one position this season.

Onwenu has 402 career snaps at LG, 1,425 snaps at RG and 1,548 snaps as a right tackle. I’d sign him with the intention of playing him at right tackle, leaving AVT to play LG and signing another RG. That still leaves a huge gaping hole at LT, but I feel as though that will need to be filled in the draft.

My dream free agent scenario is to sign both Tyron Smith and Mike Onwenu, which then frees up the draft a little bit, and while I think it’s possible from a cap perspective that would almost be too perfect and we’re not that lucky.

PFF has estimated that he will sign a 4-year deal worth $58 million in total with $33.2 million in guarantees. When you look at his career to date, then this seems like a solid investment. It’s not every day that a young, good pass-protector who can also move people in the run game comes on the open market. You’re also taking away from a divisional rival, which is just an added bonus.

Jets will sign Jacoby Brissett

Joe Douglas made a lot of mistakes last off-season, but not signing a proven backup QB may have been the worst of the lot. If you listen to his post-season press conference, you’ll have heard from a man who learned his lesson. Now it’s time to put it into practice.

The Jets will sign a veteran and it’s just about zeroing in on who that veteran will be. Ryan Tannehill would make a lot of sense based on his experience with Todd Downing. Gardner Minshew has the attitude and ability to handle NY and all that comes with it, and while I like the idea of Sam Darnold…I just don’t see the regime that traded him signing him back up. It also may be too soon.

All of this leads me to Jacoby Brissett a player that I respect and who is projected to sign a one-year deal worth $6.5 million. That’s a good insurance policy, especially when you consider he completed 64% of his passes with 12 TDs to 6 interceptions when he was last asked to play meaningful minutes in 2022. You’re not looking for star calibre in your backup, you’re looking for someone who can operate the offence and not lose you games. Brissett is perfect for that role.

Jets will re-sign Quinton Jefferson & Solomon Thomas

Right now the Jets have one defensive tackle signed for the 2024 season if you don’t include Micheal Clemons, who I still think is better on the edge than he is inside.

Robert Saleh really likes Solomon Thomas, they have a history dating back to San Francisco and Thomas has been a useful rotational player for the Jets, he’s also a good teammate and a damn good human as well. I’d be shocked if Thomas signed anywhere other than New York.

Jefferson was one of the better free agent signings last off-season, although that bar isn’t exactly a very high one. Quinton is coming off a career year in terms of sack production and I thought he was better than advertised against the run, although you absolutely need to bring someone like Al Woods in to completement Jefferson’s game.

Neither should cost a ton of money or require longterm commitments. I’d like to see the Jets draft a defensive tackle, but you need that veteran presence at the start of the season.

Jets will miss out on Ridley and sign Tyler Boyd

Everything I’ve heard and everything that’s been reported indicates the Jets are going to be in the Ridley sweepstakes, at least until the price likely gets uncomfortably high. With Evans, Pittmann and Higgins off the board, Ridley’s market is going to be robust, the Jets and Rodgers will try and sell him on going for a championship, but I also think KC are going to get involved and they have a prety persuasive argument.

The Jets will then have to move onto secondary targets. Could they give OBJ another call? Possibly. Darnell Mooney is another name not generating a ton of column inches, but I could see that happening. Maybe Gabe Davis is the best alternative option, he’d be the guy I’d go after, but when all is said and done I could see Boyd being the option, which I’m sure will underwhelm a few people.

Boyd had just 2 touchdowns last year, but I don’t hink that’s indicitive of his ability. He rarely drops passes and he’s a full effort player. In 2022, he caight 58 passes for 762 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’s got two 1000+ yard seasons on his reume and that counts for something. I personally think Boyd would be a sneaky good signing for the Jets and be a good complement to Garrett.

Keep your eyes on Boyd, he’s my favourite bet to land with the Jets.