Game Preview: Dolphins
Edition #238
Good morning!
Who’s got that Friday feeling? The Jets are going for their 3rd win of the season and it’s only week five, that feels good. The Knicks are back, the Rangers are back and my sports obsession is quenched.
This weekend I’ll be back in London to see the Green Bay Packers take on the New York Giants, I’ve seen the Giants before but this is the first time seeing the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers, so I’m looking forward to that.
I then have to avoid the Jets score as I navigate my way home (in the same car as a Dolphins fan). So I’ll be quiet again on Twitter during the game, but TJW will be back on Monday morning as usual.
Nobody turns up for their rookies more than Jets Twitter. Breece Hall was named the Pepsi Zero Sugar Rookie of the Week after his performance against Pittsburgh. Hall rushed for 66 yards and a game-winning touchdown on Sunday.
Here’s the injury report ahead of Sunday’s game. As you can see there isn’t a lot to talk about for the Jets with Hall, Harris, and Wilson all expecting to play. Miami’s whole team is basically banged up. 6 players have DNPs for both days so far including Terron Armstead and Xavien Howard. Jaylen Waddle was limited yesterday and Tyreek Hill was a new addition to the report. In total 17 players are dealing with something or other for Miami, we’ll find out today if any are in real danger of missing the game.
When I talk to people about the Jets, I’m often asked who our rivals are. While it’s easy to hate the evil empire up north in New England, the Dolphins have always been and will always be our biggest rival in my eyes.
For the first time this season, we’re going to get to test ourselves against a division rival, we’ve run the AFC North gauntlet and now it’s time to turn our focus to the AFC East. Four of our next 6 games are against division rivals with one against Miami, another home game against Buffalo, and then a home-and-away with the Patriots.
Miami got off to a blistering 3-0 start thanks in large part to their high-octane offense, but that was slowed against the Bengals in week four with the Dolphins putting just 15 points up against a Cincinnati team who is starting to find its form. They do already have two division wins to their name with an opening weekend victory against the Mac Jones-led Patriots and a week-3 upset of the Buffalo Bills.
The Jets will try and pin Miami back to 3-2 while improving their own record to 3-2, they’ll also be looking for their first home win of the season with both victories so far this season coming on the road. Considering what we’ve had to watch over the last decade, it would be nice for the team to deliver a win in front of the home crowd.
Offense
The Dolphins will be led by former Jets quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. I say former Jets QB but he was signed on March 18th, 2018, and traded on August 29th, 2018, so I’m not sure he even counts the Jets as a former team.
It’s unclear how long Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be out with his concussion issue, but head coach Mike McDaniel has already confirmed that he’ll definitely miss the week 5 game against the Jets. I’m not going to comment too much on the Dolphin’s handling of the Tua situation with investigations ongoing, but I will say I was shocked to see him back out there and extremely worried to see him hit the turf last Thursday. Hopefully, Tua gets better soon and he doesn’t suffer any lasting effects of the head injury.
The Dolphins have been one of the most explosive offenses in the league so far this season, predominantly because of their QB’s ability to get the ball into the hands of playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylon Waddle. Hill was of course nearly a Jet and he was asked about why he chose the Dolphins over Gang Green this week, merely responding “state taxes” and explaining he had to make a big boy call, so a financial one. At least he’s honest.
I watched the game from Thursday and thought Bridgewater did well when he came in and as a veteran QB he knows that he doesn’t have to put the team on his back. Mike McDaniel spoke about the switch to Teddy for this weekend’s game:
“I think that there are certain times where you will have a large disparity between the type of offense you run from your starter to your backup. I don’t see this being one of them,” Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel said Monday. “I think Teddy does a lot of very good things at the quarterback position that are similar to Tua’s strengths, and he’s done a great job within the offense. So we’ll obviously cater to certain things specifically that Teddy prefers or is comfortable with, but for the most part, the aesthetic presentation should look very similar to what it looks like now.”
Teddy finished Thursday’s game with 14 completions on 23 pass attempts for 193 yards, one touchdown, and one game-ending interception. The Dolphins still used a lot of motion, and they were still able to get Tyreek the ball (10 catches for 160 yards), but they maybe ran the ball a little more than they normally would. It didn’t hurt that Raheem Mostert who rushed for 69 yards on 15 carries, he looked decisive but patient in their zone running attack.
Bridgewater hasn’t already been known as a deep ball passer, instead gaining a reputation for a smart and accurate QB, but he connected with Hill on a 64-yard pass last Thursday and the Jets will need to ensure they offer help with Hill. According to TruMedia, the Jets have run more cover-4 than any other team in the NFL and that’s often used to prevent explosive plays, so I’d expect to see more of that this Sunday.
The Dolphin’s offensive line is relatively good, but it does have two weak links in left guard Liam Eichenberg and right tackle Greg Little. Combined they have allowed 22 pressures, 5 QB hits, and 2 sacks. Getting Huff and Johnson to target Little on the right side is a strategy I’d like to see, more of those two and less of Jacob Martin would suit me and probably worry Greg Little.
Defense
Defensive the Dolphins haven’t been as dominant as some would have expected in the preseason. According to Football Outsiders, they rank 28th in defensive DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA. Miami has allowed 1197 passing yards through four games which is broken down to 299.2 yards per game, only Baltimore possesses a worse record against the pass.
A lot of their early issues can be attributed to cornerback Xavien Howard, the Dolphins CB has already allowed four touchdowns, he’s only allowed more than that through a season on one occasion (7 in 2021), so to already be at four is a concern for the Dolphins. He also hasn’t managed to pick up an interception yet, and like Trevon Diggs in Dallas, if you’re going to be a boom-or-bust corner, you need some booms in there. Remember Howard is a guy who recorded 5 interceptions last year and 10 the year before that. It’s only a matter of time before he bags his first one, let’s hope we make him wait one more week.
Miami has plenty of talent on their defensive line, but it hasn’t quite clicked for them yet. Their pass rush is led by Melvin Ingram and Jaelan Phillips who both have double-digit pressures but only 3 sacks between them. In fact, it’s safety Jevon Holland who you have to watch out for, the Dolphins like to bring their safeties on a blitz and Holland already has 2 sacks to his name this year. Miami’s pressure percentage of 13.4% is the second-worst mark in the league whereas they’ve missed the 5th most tackles of any defensive unit.
At the moment the Dolphin's defense is a little bit Jekyll and Hyde, they kept New England to 7 points and Buffalo to 19, but then allowed the Ravens to put up 38 and the Bengals to put up 27. The Jets won’t be taking Miami lightly by any means, but this is a defense that you can score upon. The Dolphins have very similar issues to the Jets, they can’t generate a consistent pass rush and they can’t get off the field on third down, Miami is allowing a 50% conversion rate on 3rd down at the moment.
Their inability to get off the field extends drives, the Dolphins on average give up 40.2 yards per drive, the 2nd worst mark in the league, if you compare that with the Jets who give up on average 27.7 yards per drive you start to get an idea of the early struggles. But that’s not to say it’ll be straightforward, the Jets have plenty of offensive talent but Zach will need to ensure he doesn’t give the Dolphins a short field to work with.
With all of the statistics pointing to a poor defense, you may think that forcing turnovers has allowed them to jump to 3-1, but that’s simply not the case. The Dolphins have forced just 4 turnovers so far this season and three of those were fumbles rather than interceptions, by contrast, the Jets have forced 7 with 6 of those being interceptions. What the Dolphins have done is limit their own turnovers with just 4 giveaways through 4 games.
Undrafted rookie Kader Kohou has spent the majority of his time as the Dolphin’s slot corner and while he’s performed very well through the first four weeks, I would target him with the likes of Wilson, Moore and on occasions Corey Davis. Davis played more in the slot last week than he has all season and it was one of his better games as a Jet, I like the idea of that matchup against Kohou who is listed as 5’10 and 105lbs.
Special Teams
Miami has one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL in Jason Sanders, he’s 5-6 on field goals this year, only missing a 50+ yarder. He has missed an extra point but he’s a career 83.3% kicker on field goals and 97.3% kicker on extra points, so when called upon he gets the job done the majority of the time.
Old friend Thomas Morstead will be doing the punting for Miami. The Jets signed Morestead last season as a replacement for Braden Mann who was injured in week one, and despite Morestead outperforming Mann, he was cut when the Jets punter returned. So far this year he’s averaging 48.7 yards per attempt with a respectable if unremarkable hangtime of 4.37 seconds.
Running back Raheem Mostert has been the kick returner of choice with Jevon Holland returning the odd punt or two.
Each week I want to focus on some of the positive community action the Jets are taking, as believe it or not, the team does a ton of work…it just doesn’t get shared as much. I do tend to tweet things out when I hear from the Jet’s PR department. I posted this yesterday about Quinnen and Solomon visiting the Goreyb Children’s Hospital.
The Jets announced their high school coach of the week as Mike Drury from Southington High School in CT. Coach Drury will receive $2,500 to go towards the school’s football program, and Mike will be honored on the field on December 18th when the Jets face the Lions.
The Jets also announced the winner of the High School player of the week award. Jack Melore a junior wide receiver from Smithtown West High School in Smithtown New York was the recipient of $1,000, which will be given to help the high school football team in his name. Melore had 10 catches for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns as Smithdown upset #4 Half Hollow Hills East. He also had 6 passes defended and 1 sack on the defensive side of the ball.
I love that you point out the good things the Jets are doing in the community. You're right that they aren't reported/focused on enough. Those things are important and make me proud of my team!
I think the offense needs to draw out long drives to keep our defence fresh. You don’t want to be chasing Hill all over the place at the best of times, let alone when you’re gassed. At least 5 or 6 minutes and/or points on every drive.
I’d assume they’ll try lots of bubble screens and other nonsense plays like that to get the ball to Hill as quickly as possible. Is this something they do a lot of?
I’d like to see more running the ball from under centre, the shotgun handoffs seemed to get busted so many times last week. Granted Pittsburgh’s defence has been better than Miami’s so far.