Focus On: Linebackers

Are the Jets set or will they look to improve the position?

🗽🏈 Good evening Jets fans. I had planned to release this first thing but some things are better late than never.

First of all, I released my pre-combine seven-round mock draft yesterday over on Jets X-Factor, so don’t forget to head over and check that out.

Last week I took a look at the Tight End position and detailed who was available through free agency and the draft to upgrade that position. This week I wanted to focus on the linebackers, a position group that may not be a main priority but

2021 Reviewed 🎥

🏈 The Jets got lucky in 2021 in being able to claim starting LB Quincy Williams off waivers from the Jaguars, without him the linebacking unit would have been a complete mess.

After signing former first-round pick Jarrad Davis to a one-year contract, the Jets decided to spend two draft picks on safeties they planned to convert into linebackers. Jamien Sherwood was taken #146th overall from Auburn and played sparingly before tearing his Achilles in the Week 7 game against New England.

They also used their #187th pick on Florida State safety Hamsah Nasrildeen, a player who suffered his own injuries before being relegated to special teams for the majority of the time he was healthy.

Jarrad Davis didn’t make his debut until week 8 and he was extremely inconsistent upon his return. PFF credited him with a 28.6 grade over the season, by far his worst season on record.

To put it simply the Jets linebacking unit largely consisted of CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams and that’s about it. CJ had a much better year than people credit him with and Quincy was a fine find on waivers, but the Jets will be looking to upgrade the position room this off-season.

2022 Outlook 🧐

🏈 On the face of it, everyone is expected to return outside of Jarrad Davis, there’s a good chance Blake Cashman gets cut but he didn’t offer anything other than a steep physio bill in 2022.

CJ Mosley has a $17.5 million cap hit in 2022, which will be the last of his guaranteed money. The Jets can move on from CJ after the season with minimal dead money if they choose, but the last thing we need is to release talent from this roster.

Quincy, Jamien, and Hamsah all signed to team-friendly deals, so outside of CJ there isn’t a great deal of cap tied into the position. The Jets found themselves in a lot of sub-packages last season with only two linebackers on the field, and there is a lot of belief inside the organization that Quincy and CJ are a promising partnership for 2022 and beyond.

That doesn’t mean that they won’t look to add to the group. It’s hard to rely on Jamien coming off such a big injury, and Hamsah looked largely lost at the position when asked to play in the base defense.

2022 Free Agency 💰💲

🏈 Let’s take a quick look at who’s available in free agency. Like with the tight end position, this won’t be an exhaustive list and I’m sure I’ll miss people, but this is a list of players who may be targeted, with comparison stats.

I’ve tried to include all the players I think the Jets may have some interest in. By design I’ve left off several players who are considered two-down backers, I feel as though we’ll be targeting players who have some coverage ability to operate in this system. Especially considering the Jets drafted safeties to try and find the answer, so it’s safe to assume that coverage was the question.

Anthony Walker - Expected to receive around $4 million per year, Walker is your sideline to sideline coverage backer who offers little against the run. In two of his last three years he’s had coverage grades over 70 and he’s still just 26 years old. His 8.5 yards allowed per reception was in the top 20 at the position in 2021 (minimum 500 snaps).

De’Vondre Campbell - One of my favorite names on the list. He played on a one-year $2 million contract for Green Bay which was exceptional value. You won’t get him that cheap now, he’s likely to command around $8 million over multiple years. Campbell has played over 850 snaps every year since 2017, so he’s durable. His 2.9% missed tackle rate was among the best in the league and he allowed just 6.8 yards per reception.

Josey Jewell - It’s a shame Jewell got injured as he started the season really well and he’s been getting better every year since his rookie one in 2018. He’s not the most athletic guy on the list but his read and react skills make up for it. He’s probably more suited to playing MLB, but can perform at WLB. He’s a very good tackler with a career 6.6% missed tackle rate and he’s likely going to be available on a one year $5 million type deal.

Foyesade Oluokun - His PFF grades may not look great, but you only need to talk to Falcons fans to see he played far better than they indicate (like CJ Mosley with the Jets). The Jets love speed and range from their linebackers and he has it in abundance. His 10.3% career missed tackle rate isn’t ideal and he hasn’t been as quick to diagnose in coverage as you’d like but he has experience working with current Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Contract here is the sticking point, he’s likely going to get between $9 million and $12 million per year.

Dark Horse 🐴

Kyzir White: White is an interesting name to me because he excels in zone coverage, he gets good depth in his drops and he anticipates throwing lanes, that’s something the Jets don’t have right now. He fits the profile of a fast lighter linebacker with measurements nearly identical to Jamien Sherwood. His 7.9 yards allowed per reception in 2021 was a strong number and he reduced his missed tackle rate to 7.9% as well. He won’t give you a ton in the run game, but he’s likely going to be available for around $5-$6 million/year. Interesting name to keep your eyes on.

2022 NFL Draft 🎓

🏈 Even more than the free-agent list, this isn’t a comprehensive table because there are simply too many prospects. I’ll mention a few guys that just missed out, but here are all the linebackers I have in my top 100 prospects.

Nakobe Dean/Devin Lloyd - I really love both of these prospects, but I don’t see the Jets going linebacker in round one, and these two are very unlikely to make it to round 2. Devin Lloyd made strides with his ability in coverage and when you add that to his ability inside, it’s a great combination. Nakobe Dean is the most instinctual player in the draft, any position. People talk about his size, but he was one of the best players in the SEC, he’s going to make some team very happy, he’s a natural leader too.

Christian Harris - The Alabama man is a really interesting prospect because he does everything pretty well, but he doesn’t excel in any one area. It’s the reason why he’s not being looked at as a first-round prospect. His missed tackle rate of 15.7% in 2021 is an issue and he also allowed 11.4 yards per reception, which is a pretty poor number at the college level for a player who’s supposed to be one of the best in the nation. I like Harris would I don’t love him for the Jets.

Chad Muma - I won’t spend too much time here as everyone who reads the newsletter will know that Chad Muma is a guy I love. He’s a good to great zone defender, he’s a leader at Wyoming and he has excellent speed for his size. He’s not perfect, he can choose the wrong gap in his run fits and players with real short-area quickness can turn him around, but as a day-two prospect, he’s a perfect fit for the Jets with his sideline to sideline range and instinctual play.

Brian Asamoah - Asamoah has really come on over the last couple of years and his read and react skills have caught up to his natural athleticism. He’s designed to be a WILL linebacker in a 4-3 system and he has sideline to sideline speed. He’s a very solid tackler (7.4% missed tackle rate in 2021). At this point, I would say he looks more comfortable playing the run than the pass, but his pure athleticism will intrigue plenty of teams looking for a three-down player.

Darrian Beavers - Here’s a player I really like, but who I rarely talk about because I see him as an ideal fit as a standup outside linebacker in a 3-4. Beavers is a 6’4 255lb run-stuffing and block shredding linebacker who has the instincts to diagnose and react quickly. He isn’t the most athletically gifted in coverage in terms of depth of drops and sticking in man coverage, which is why I don’t have him as a natural fit for the Jets. But he will make a team very happy.

Dark Horse 🐴

Brandon Smith - Smith may be the most athletically gifted linebacker in this class, and Penn State is renowned for its linebackers. If you draft Smith you’re going to need to be patient, because he’s most certainly a work in progress. He has the speed, athleticism, and length to come in and play the pass straight away at the pro level, especially for a team that asks him to read and react in zone coverages (Jets). But if you expect him to be a three-down guy out the gate, you’re likely going to be disappointed. Smith can get lost in traffic and has a hard time shedding blocks, add that to his 15.3% missed tackle rate and the run defense is a work in progress. However, his 16 pressures led Penn State and he flashed outstanding upside, if you can afford to use him in certain ways to start his career and then work on improving his flaws, he could be a steal.

Other notable mentions: As mentioned at the top, unless this newsletter was going to be War & Peace, I couldn’t focus on all linebackers, but there are several other guys worth taking a look at before the draft. Including Leo Chenal from Wisconsin who is one of the best run defenders in college. JoJo Domann who’s an undersized but highly athletic linebacker/safety hybrid from Nebraska. Troy Anderson has outstanding athleticism and is a true sideline-to-sideline player from Montana State.

As always I appreciate you guys taking the time out of your day to read the newsletter. Please comment below your thoughts on the linebacker position, which prospects intrigue you, and which scare you. Let me know if there are any other positions you’d like to see a focus on.