Drafting Elite Talent

Where are first team All-Pro's drafted on average.

Good evening Jets fans. Two newsletters in one day? It can only mean I’ve got something drafted related up my sleeve. I was doing a little research around First-Team All-Pro’s and I thought why not share that with the lovely folks who have been kind enough to subscribe to the newsletter.

I often get into conversations around draft value and positional value. It’s always an interesting discussion around which positions you should be prioritizing with your first-round picks and which positions you can find elite talent deeper in the draft.

With that in mind, I thought I would look at the elite of the elite, and I’m not talking fan-voted Pro-Bowls here. While football writers are as bad as fans sometimes, the All-Pro teams are usually a good gauge for outlining the top talent in football.

For the sake of this newsletter, I wanted to focus on the elite of the elite, talking First-Team All-Pro’s only, and I went back 10 years to collect the data.

To try and ensure that no one player could influence the data too much, whether they’ve appeared in one All-Pro team or 5, they’ve only been counted once. It ensures someone like Tom Brady doesn’t skew the QB numbers too much.

So I’ve taken all the players who appeared in at least one First-Team All-Pro team over the last 10 years and focused on their draft position. I’ve then worked out the average draft position for each position to get an idea of where you’re likely to find these players.

Obviously, this isn’t an exact science, it’s designed as a basic guide and I looked at it for my own personal interest ahead of draft season. On the defensive side, the All-Pro team has changed over the last 10 years, so for the sake of this, I’ve clumped in defensive ends, edge rushers, and outside linebackers who are renowned for their pass rush.

We do have UDFA’s around the All-Pro team, so I’ve given all of them a default draft position of #260, as there were 259 picks in the 2021 NFL draft.

In order of their average draft position.

1) Safety - Average draft position #33 overall

Highest draft pick - Eric Berry #5

Lowest draft pick - Dashon Goldson #126

2) Quarterback - Average draft position #34 overall

Highest draft pick - Cam Newton #1, Peyton Manning #1

Lowest draft pick - Tom Brady #199

3) Linebackers - Average draft position #42

Highest draft pick - Roquan Smith #8

Lowest draft pick - NaVorro Bowman #91

4) Defensive Tackle - Average draft position #44 overall

Highest draft pick - Ndamukong Suh #2

Lowest draft pick - Damon Harrison #260 (UDFA)

5) Offensive Tackles - Average draft position #45 overall

Highest draft pick - Trent Williams #4, Lane Johnson #4

Lowest draft pick - Jason Peters #260 (UDFA)

6) Defensive End, Edge, Outside Backer - Average draft position #48

Highest draft pick - Myles Garrett #1, Jadeveon Clowney #1, Mario Williams #1

Lowest draft pick - Cameron Wake #260 (UDFA)

7) Cornerback, Average draft position #49

Highest draft pick - Charles Woodson #4

Lowest draft pick - Chris Harris Jr #260 (UDFA)

8) Running Back, Average draft position #51

Highest draft pick - Saquan Barkley #2

Lowest draft pick - Arian Foster #260 (UDFA)

9) Tight End - Average draft position #66

Highest draft pick - Tony Gonzalez #13

Lowest draft pick - George Kittle #146

10) Center - Average draft position #85

Highest draft pick - Maurkice Pouncey #18

Lowest draft pick - Jason Kelce #191

11) Offensive Guard - Average draft position #88

Highest draft pick - Brandon Scherff #5

Lowest draft pick - Andrew Norwell #260 (UDFA)

12) Wide Receiver - Average draft position #97

Highest draft pick - Calvin Johnson #2

Lowest draft pick - Wes Welker #260 (UDFA)

So take that for what you will. I thought it was quite interesting to take a look at the average draft position. There were a lot of wide receivers who were taken later in the draft that appeared in All-Pro teams which explains that position coming up last. You think of guys like Welker, Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Brandon Marshall, and they were all taken after pick #100.

The QB would have been top by a comfortable margin had it not been for the outlier of Tom Brady at #199. Take that away and the average draft position for a First-Team All-Pro would be #13 overall, so that speaks volumes.

Cornerback was perhaps the position group that shocked me the most, but then you have to consider players like Richard Sherman at #154, Chris Harris Jr as a UDFA, and Josh Norman at #143.