Drafting a Contested Catch Receiver
Is that what the Jets need? If so, who's the best option.
🗽 Good morning Jets fans and welcome to Friday’s edition of TJW. Today we’re going to do things a little differently, we’re going to shorten the game preview and focus on other topics.
The game preview tends to be read the least, and the point of this newsletter is to give Jets fans the content they want to read. So I’m flipping it up, calling an audible, and trying something new for this Friday. First, we’re talking wide receivers and the NFL draft.
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🏈 Here’s a comment I see a lot from the Jets community…" The Jets need a contested-catch receiver to help out Zach”, and that got me thinking about the current construction of the roster, the offensive system we run, the QB we have, and the talent available in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Let’s break it down into those sections, and address the contested-catch question.
How are the current Jets receivers fairing in contested catch situations?
🏈 Let’s just dive straight into the numbers. Braxton Berrios comes out top with a 75% rate, although that’s based on just 4 contested-catch targets, of the two players who have garnered at least 10 contested-catch targets, Corey Davis is only slightly better than rookie Elijah Moore in terms of contested catch completion percentage.
For some context, if we put a minimum target requirement of 10 contested catches there are 36 NFL receivers who have a higher contested-catch completion than Corey Davis and 44 NFL receivers who have a higher rate than Elijah Moore. That’s not really Elijah Moore’s game so I can understand that, but I’d expect a #1 outside receiver like Davis to be a little higher.
I went back to look at Corey Davis’s career with the Titans to see if the 46.2% we’re seeing this year is a career norm, and over his four-year career his contested catch completion percentage is sitting at 49.3%, so not too far off. He’s down on his 61.1% from 2020 (11/18) but way up from his rookie numbers in 2017 of 25% (3/12).
I don’t think the Jets have a contested-catch guy on the roster, Denzel Mims at Baylor was a 48.8% contested catch guy in 2019 (20/41), and his roster spot is far from secure for 2022 when you consider how the coaching staff have used him so far this season.
What about the offensive system that we run?
🏈 I will say that no coach in the NFL will turn down someone capable of going up and getting a 50-50 ball. Windows are tight in the NFL, coverage is sticky, the guys that can go and get it like Mike Evans are worth their weight in gold. The Jets system is a more horizontal attack, but even with all the play-action and all the bootlegs and everything that comes with this version of the west coast offense, winning a contested battle is always going to be a necessity of any team. LaFleur’s philosophy is to make the defense cover every single blade of grass, and by doing that and spreading defenses out the hope is you’ll have open receivers. In reality, in the NFL and with how athletic linebackers, corners, and safeties are, that doesn’t always happen.
Our system is about yards after the catch, but if you can win contested battles, there are more yards after the catch.
What about the QB we have?
🏈 So far in his career, Zach Wilson’s accuracy has been less than ideal. Drops are one thing, most QB’s deal with drops but when you combine that with a lack of players capable of bringing down contested catch opportunities, you’re not helping your first-year quarterback. I’m not making excuses for him, he needs to be better, but helping him should always be a priority.
The thing about Zach is that he’s more comfortable throwing 30 yards down the field than he is throwing a 5-yard hitch. The funky footwork and overthinking are an issue on those shorter throws, but the longer completions seem to come more naturally to him. His 43.2% completion on throws over 20 yards still rank him in the top 10 in the NFL. Contested catches don’t just happen on deep throws, but due to the ball being in the air for longer, it’s more likely to be a contested catch.
What you don’t want to do with Zach is take away his long play potential, you just need to teach him when to let it go and when you check it down. At the start of the year he was letting go deep shots that should never have left his hand, now he’s second-guessing himself. It’s all a process, and if the Jets can find that middle ground for him, that’s when we’ll start to see success.
At BYU, Zach had three receivers who won their contested catch battles more than Corey Davis. Gunner Romney was at 61.1% (11/18) Dax Milne was at 60.0% (9/15) and Isaac Rex was at 58.3% (7/12). He had three receivers above the Corey Davis mark in 2019 as well. Zach had trust in those guys to win more contested battles than they lost, and when you have that it’s easier to let the ball go.
Who’s available in the 2022 NFL Draft that could help?
🏈 For this newsletter, I wanted to take a look at the top talents in the 2022 NFL draft, guys who are expected to either go in the first round or the top of the second. I don’t know if the Jets will do receiver early again after drafting Denzel in 2020, Elijah in 2021, and signing Corey Davis to a big contract, but it’s never a bad idea to surround your QB with talent.
So let’s take a look at OSU’s Chris Olave & Garrett Wilson, USC’s Drake London, Alabama’s Jameson Williams, Arkansas’s Treylon Burks, Penn State’s Jahan Dotson, and Georgia’s George Pickens.
*All of the numbers are 2021 apart from George Pickens, due to his injury I used his numbers from 2020.
A contested catch rate should not be the reason you draft or don’t draft a prospect, a complete evaluation needs to be done on exactly what they bring to the team, but there are four players on here that instantly stick out. Olave, Wilson, London, and Pickens.
London is a guy that I’m really high on and a lot of it is to do with his ability to go up and get the football, that’s the kind of guy that a quarterback like Zach would absolutely love.
However, the most interesting name on here for me is George Pickens, a player that I’ve liked ever since he burst onto the scene in Athens back in 2019 as a Freshman. That year he caught 49 passes for 727 yards and 8 touchdowns. An ACL injury this spring ruined what was supposed to be the real introduction, and although he’s back playing again now, he basically missed the entire season.
Pickens is a guy with agility and quickness and when you pair that with his + body control and long speed, he’s a very intriguing prospect and he was my #1 rated wide receiver in college football coming into the 2021 season. I’ve not seen any news around if he’ll declare or not, he could return to Georgia where if healthy, he could be the first receiver taken in 2022.
Who are the better-contested catches in the NFL?
🏈 For the sake of this segment, I am only including players who have had at least 10 contested-catch targets this season.
Donovan Peoples-Jones leads the line with a 86.7% success rate (13/15). Followed by Sterling Shephard at 80% (8/10), Tyler Boyd 80% (8/10) and Mike Evans 80% (12/15). Jaylen Waddle is next up at 75% (12/16) and you can bet the presence of Jaylon is helping Tua have a nice bound-back year in 2022.
Miami Dolphins Game Preview
🏈 Instead of a full game preview which I wrote for the Dolphins earlier this season, I thought I’d look at some key points.
The performance of Zach Wilson is going to be absolutely key. He had one of his worst games last week, but he is not as bad as that. I don’t think the major jump for Wilson will come until 2022, and I still believe it will come. But, I’m looking for minor improvements week to week. How does he deal with the Miami blitz looks, how does he deal with the man coverage scheme, how does he deal with seeing a cover-0 which turns out to be anything but.
The performance of Denzel Mims. The 2nd year wideout got benched last week after two penalties stalled a Jets drive Saleh came out and said he’d get another chance this week, and it’s about time he took it. I have faith in Denzel, but this is a huge opportunity with Corey Davis out, if he can’t out snap D.J Montgomery then we have some serious issues.
How does the defense look? There were a number of missed tackles against the Saints and that just can’t happen. Tua is looking good, but he’ll be without rookie Jaylen Waddle who was placed onto the COVID reserve list, the Jets still have other players to worry about, but Tua not having Waddle is a huge advantage for the Jets. Covering Mike Gesicki is going to be a priority, I’m not sure we have a safety capable of covering someone like Mike, maybe we need someone like Hamilton. 😉
That’s it for today. Hope you enjoyed the contested catch focus. Have a great weekend and enjoy the game, hopefully we’re back Monday talking about a victory.