Double Trouble

Edition #241

Good morning!

I like to stay positive without getting ahead of myself. Last night I had a look through the Jet’s upcoming schedule and for the first time in a long time, I didn’t fear a single game. Obviously, there are tougher opponents like the Packers and the Bills, but I have faith that the Jets will be competitive across the board, and that’s not just a step forward but a giant leap.

Today I’m going to take a quick look at a couple of the Jet's rookies who could be in contention to take home the rookie of the year honors. It’s early in the season and a lot can change, but it’s perfectly acceptable to be excited about what we’re seeing from the 2022 draft class.

First, as we always do…it’s the quick throws.

The Jets re-signed WR-KR Diontae Spencer to the practice squad for what seems like the 50th time this season. To make space they released offensive lineman Grant Hermanns who had previously been active for three games this season due to the tackle crisis. Welcome back Diontae, hopefully, you didn’t cancel your flat lease.

Carl Lawson was PFF’s #1 graded defensive end in week 5 against the Dolphins. Since 1970, Lawson is the only player in franchise history with 7 QB hits in a single game. We’ve been waiting patiently for a breakout and although he may have registered just one sack, he influenced the game in so many ways with his pressure.

Great quote here from DJ Reed about the trip to Lambeau coming up: "It's historic going to Lambeau," Reed said. "It's a football atmosphere, the grass is slippery, there's a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, and that excites me. It excites Sauce [Gardner] and all guys on defense… We're looking forward to it. We treat each game like a championship game, and this is our championship week. I love going against the greats. To be the best, you have to go against the best. I'm definitely looking forward to it."

I also wanted to share this tweet from Braylon Edwards because it shows that the Jets organization shows an appreciation for players from their past. He may have only been here for three years, but he left quite a mark. Braylon played a key role on those AFC Championship game teams of 2009 and 2010 and for that, we’re always appreciative. More than the Browns it seems.

Braylon Edwards @OfficialBraylon

Yesterday was so surreal. The @nyjets made me feel so amazing and missed. Talked about being more involved as a former player in multiple fields. Crazy a team I played for for 3 years shows more love than teams i spent more time or programs I’ve donated 500k too. 🤔🙏🏽 Blessed!!

Yesterday while I was sitting and working on some pieces for my actual job my mind started wandering, and usually when it does that the subject settles on the Jets.

With the performances of Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner fresh in my memory I started thinking about the Associated Press NFL ROTY Award, and whether the same team had ever had players win both.

Fortunately, I didn’t have to look too hard. The associated press has awarded an offensive rookie of the year award since 1957, but it wasn’t until 1967 that they started naming a defensive one. In that first year, the Detroit Lions won both. Mel Farr the running back took home offensive honors and Lem Barney the cornerback took home defensive honors.

It didn’t happen again until 2017. In that year the New Orleans Saints had Alvin Kamara win the offensive side and Marshon Lattimore won the defensive side. In 54 years it’s only happened twice. Is there a chance the Jets could be the third team?

When I was looking into this I had a quick glance at previous Jets winners and surprisingly…or unsurprisingly considering our history, we’ve never had an offensive rookie win the away, we’ve had four winners on the defensive side but never an offensive player. Curtis Martin won it while with the Patriots in 1995 before he joined the Jets in 1998, but the jets have been short of top offensive talent in their rookie classes.

On the defensive side, it hasn’t been an issue. Erik McMillan was the first Jet to take home the award in 1988, followed by defensive end Hugh Douglas in 1995, linebacker Jonathan Vilma in 2004, and defensive end Sheldon Richardson in 2013. Considering Curtis Martin won it in 1995 at the same time as Erik McMillan, maybe the Jets have already done it in a round about way, as there is no bigger Jet on this planet than Martin, outside of maybe Joe Namath.

But what are the chances of the Jets winning both this year? It’s going to be difficult. Lattimore was the last cornerback to win the award, with sacks and tackles becoming the way to the hearts of many voters over the last 5 years. But let’s first take a look at the offensive side of the ball.

We all know that the NFL is a passing league, the rules have been adapted to protect quarterbacks and receivers. The NFL likes points and if points are scored quickly through the air, then even better. So the first thing you look for every year is if there is a QB worthy of winning it. Chances are that in 2022 a QB won’t win the award. Right now only Bailey Zappe in New England and Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh have played meaningful minutes. Zappe will be replaced as soon as Mac Jones is healthy and Pickett has thrown 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions so far, largely thanks to the Jets.

If it’s not going to be a quarterback, it’s probably going to be a wide receiver. Saying that only 4 wide receivers have won the award since 2000 (Chase, Odell Beckham Jr, Percy Harvin, and Anquan Boldin).

Drake London is certainly a possibility in Atlanta, but catching 57.9% of targets for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns through 5 games doesn’t scream domination. Chris Olave is leading all rookies with 389 receiving yards and Jahan Dotson leads all rookies with 4 touchdowns, add in our own Garrett Wilson and all four have the chance to push on and stake a claim to the title.

The biggest challenger to Breece Hall is almost certainly another running back. Dameon Pierce in Houston is having a blistering start to his rookie campaign. The one advantage he has is that he is the clear #1 back for the Texans, and has 30 attempts more than Hall which explains the yardage discrepancy. Pierce is setting the pace with 413 yards as opposed to 275 for Breece, but Hall’s 4.9 yards a carry is 0.1 higher than Pierce and Breece is significantly better in terms of pass-catching 215 yards to 57 for Pierce.

This is going to be a race right down to the wire and we’ve seen over the last two weeks how Hall has become the Jet’s number-one back and if he continued to take carries away from Micheal Carter, the stats will come. As of this morning, Pierce is the favourite with the oddsmakers at +500, but Olave and Hall are at +550. It’s close.

As far as the defensive side of the ball, it already looks like a two-horse race between Jacksonville’s Devin Lloyd (+300) and Sauce Gardner (+600), everyone else is +900 or lower, and that includes Aidan Hutchinson and #1 overall pick Travon Walker.

What Sauce is doing is pretty incredible. He’s allowed just 127 yards through the first five games of his career as a starting outside corner, within that he’s allowed just 40 total yards after the catch, registered an interception, and had one pass break-up in each game he’s played.

He does have one touchdown against his name, but that came on a miscommunication with the safeties. That happens, unfortunately.

The issue is that Devin Lloyd plays linebacker and he has so many ways he can influence the game, and he’s doing it all.

He already has 49 tackles through 5 games, and 20 of those tackles have constituted a defensive stop or an offensive failure. He has registered 2 interceptions, 4 pressures, and a sack too. He has allowed 229 yards into his coverage, but he is yet to surrender a touchdown.

But I don’t think it’s a lost cause. On Sunday we saw what Sauce could do when asked to rush the passer, he did that in college and he was nearly always effective. His closing speed from the edge is outstanding and it’s one of the things we pointed out in our coverage of Sauce before the draft.

If Sauce continues what he’s doing (allowing 25 yards a game), stacks some interceptions and is allowed to rush the passer, then he absolutely can win the defensive rookie of the year, especially if Lloyd just cools off even slightly. Lattimore registered 5 interceptions in his rookie season back in 2017, that was enough to win the award. It might take even more in 2022, but if anyone is going to do it, I’d bet on Sauce.